Electric vehicles mainly use electric energy and increase the use of copper in all directions. Electric vehicles mainly use electric energy, so the increment of copper mainly comes from power batteries, high-voltage wire harness, motors and other electrical systems. in addition, the construction of charging piles will also promote the demand for copper. For the sake of improving efficiency and power safety, new energy vehicles also put forward higher requirements for the performance of copper, and copper products such as lithium copper foil, electromagnetic flat wire, high voltage wire harness and connectors will usher in a broader market space.
The consumption of copper foil for pure electric vehicles is 25.3-38.0 kg, and that for plug-in hybrid cars is 6.2-9.3 kg. The thinning of lithium copper foil helps to improve the energy density and battery life of power batteries. At present, 6 μ m copper foil is the mainstream of the industry, and it will gradually switch to 4 μ m in the future. The lithium copper foil usage of each pure electric vehicle is about 25.3-38.0kg, and the corresponding value is about 3499-3569 yuan, while that of each plug-in hybrid vehicle is about 6.2kg-9.3kg, and the corresponding value is about 860,878 yuan. It is estimated that the market size of lithium copper foil for power batteries will reach 34.5 billion yuan in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 34%.
The amount of copper used by electric vehicles for high-voltage wire harness and low-voltage wire harness is 23 kg and 5 kg respectively. The low-voltage wiring harness of electric vehicles uses 5 kilograms more copper than fuel cars, up to 23 kilograms. Electric vehicle high voltage wire harness requires high conductivity. It is expected that advanced copper alloy will be used in electric vehicle high voltage system in the future. It is estimated that by 2025, the total market size of copper for wiring harness of electric vehicles in China will reach 18.8 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30%.
The copper consumption of each pure electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid motor is 12.3 kg and 8.9 kg respectively, and the flat wire motor increases the demand for oxygen-free copper rod. The motor is the power source of new energy vehicles, in which the solenoid is made of copper rods. The copper consumption of each pure electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid vehicle is 12.3 kg and 8.9 kg respectively. With the flat wire motor gradually replacing the round wire motor, the market scale of oxygen-free copper rod will gradually expand to 6.8 billion yuan by 2025, and the market scale of low-oxygen copper rod will gradually shrink to 1.2 billion yuan. It is estimated that in 2025, the market size of copper rods for electric vehicles will total 8 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 32%.
Each AC charging pile uses 2-8 kg of copper and DC charging pile uses 60 kg of copper. Charging piles provide charging equipment for new energy electric vehicles, which increases the amount of copper used for electric vehicles. In order to improve the charging efficiency, the charging pile is developing in the direction of high-voltage fast charging, many domestic automobile companies are expected to follow 800V high-voltage fast charging in 2022, and advanced copper is expected to be more widely used. It is estimated that by 2025, the market scale of copper used for charging piles of electric vehicles in China will reach 3.1 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 36%.
Investment suggestion and investment target
To sum up, new energy vehicles will increase the use of copper in an all-round way. under the policy background of low-carbon transformation of means of transport and adjusting energy structure, sales of new energy vehicles are expected to maintain a high growth rate, and the demand for copper is also increasing day by day. With the continuous improvement of sales and permeability of new energy vehicles in China, it is estimated that the copper market of electric vehicles in China will reach 64.4 billion yuan in 2025, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the market scale of copper demand increment caused by automobile electrification is up to 50.9 billion yuan.
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading domestic copper processing enterprises, such as Jiayuan Technology, Nord shares, Bowei Alloy, Jintian Copper and so on.
Risk hint
The sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; the permeability of flat line motor of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; and the development trend of high voltage wire harness and high voltage charging of new energy vehicles is not as expected. The measurement of market capacity is based on more assumptions, and there is a risk that the assumption is lower than expected.
