SHANGHAI, Feb 21 (SMM) - The output of sintered NdFeB raw magnets stood at 207,100 mt, and the output of bonded NdFeB raw magnets was 9,400 mt in 2021. The combined output of NdFeB raw magnets totalled 216,500 mt throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%.

In terms of overseas demand, the exports of NdFeB magnetic materials in 2021 stood at 49,000 mt, with the Europe and the United States being the major destinations. China’s exports accounted for about 80% of the global (excluding China) NdFeB magnet supply. In 2021, the global demand for NdFeB magnets stood at about 61,000 mt, far below China’s demand for NdFeB magnets.

China’s demand for NdFeB raw magnets is estimated at 167,800 mt, of which the demand for high-grade NdFeB stands at 95,000 mt based on demand from all terminal sectors, equalling 95,000 mt of raw magnets and accounting for 56.6% of the total demand for NdFeB magnets.

Domestic demand for high-grade NdFeB will mainly be found in terminals include new energy vehicles, and wind turbines in 2022.

In 2021, the newly installed wind power capacity in China totalled 47.57 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The cumulative installed power generation capacity was about 2.38 billion kilowatts across the country, and wind power and thermal power accounted for 13.9% and nearly 50% respectively of the total power generation. The proportion of wind power generation is still relatively small by comparison. Under the premise that thermal coal is facing seasonal supply constraints and the wind power installation policy is promoted, the scale of wind power installations may usher in substantial increases in 2022.

The domestic output of new energy vehicles reached 3.55 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 160%, and the market share of new energy vehicles stood at 13.4%. The prices of rare earths have been rising sharply since entering 2022, and the mainstream transaction prices of PrNd alloy has boomed by 17% since the beginning of the year. It is understood that the costs of rare earth permanent magnets in NEV is still less than 10%, which has little impact on the prices of finished products. Driven by the advancement of downstream consumption concept to energy saving and the promotion of purchase tax subsidy policy, it is expected that the demand for NEVs will continue to grow rapidly in 2022.

This proportion of high-grade NdFeB achieved a substantial increase in 2021, and the product portfolio of rare earth permanent magnets is increasingly highlighting the feature of high performance.

The proportion of PrNd alloy used in the NdFeB raw magnets is about 27%. In 2021, the terminal sectors demand for PrNd alloy came in at 59,000 mt in 2021, which is equivalent to 72,000 mt of PrNd oxide. The annual output of domestic PrNd oxide was about 71,000 mt in 2021, meaning that the supply and demand was tightly balanced during the year.

In 2021, the separation enterprises of light rare earths in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia and other provinces successfully raised their output, and the supply of PrNd oxide from scraps also achieved growth.

The domestic supply of light rare earth minerals has been relatively sufficient. And in 2022, the downstream demand will be strong. Large-scale magnetic material enterprises have been poured in with orders since the beginning of 2022, and the production capacity of large-scale NdFeB magnetic material enterprises will increase along with the rising downstream demand. It is expected that in 2022, upstream NdFeB scrap recycling enterprises and light rare earth ore separation enterprises will continue to expand their output. Affected by the overseas COVID-19 pandemic, the China-Myanmar border has been closed again after a short opening in December 2021. Chinese separation enterprises are highly dependent on ores imported from Myanmar, and it is expected that it will be difficult to increase the production capacity of products made of middle and heavy rare earth ores.

It is expected that the rare earth supply tightness will intensify in 2022.