Domestic passenger car capacity is still excess and the utilization rate is only 52.47% in 2021.

"overcapacity" has always been a hidden worry in the automobile industry. According to the statistics of the Automobile Federation, by the end of 2021, the national passenger car production capacity totaled 40.89 million, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.47%. Although it is up 4% from 48.45% in 2020, it is still in the range of serious overcapacity.

It is also important to note that among the passenger car companies counted this time, there are a total of 86 passenger car companies with a total production capacity of 37.038 million vehicles, which also means that the production capacity of 3.85 million vehicles of other non-sales enterprises is completely idle.

The head effect of car companies is obvious, and most of them are in the "iceberg".

According to the data of the bus Association, among the 86 enterprises with sales, there are 16 enterprises with sales of more than 600000 vehicles, and the total sales of these enterprises reach 16.6106 million vehicles, accounting for 77.42% of the total sales. The total production capacity is 20.39 million vehicles, accounting for nearly 50% of the total production capacity, and the average capacity utilization rate is 81.03%, which is in a reasonable range.

Analysis of passenger car production capacity by Enterprise sales in 2021 (Photo Source: bus Association)

Among them, 11 enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, basically running three shifts, and have to work overtime on rest days. Of the 11 enterprises, 6 are wholly foreign-owned or joint ventures in China, and 5 are local enterprises. Thanks to the dividend of the new energy market in 2021, four new energy vehicle companies have a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, including Tesla.

However, only a few are excellent. In the remaining 70 enterprises, the capacity utilization rate is not very satisfactory. Among them, the annual sales volume of 64 enterprises is less than 200000, and the capacity utilization rate is less than 50%. There are 29 enterprises with less than 10,000 vehicles, and the capacity utilization rate is only 2.02%.

Overall, the larger the volume of sales, the higher the capacity utilization, and vice versa. Nowadays, with the maturity of automobile consumption, the market head effect is obvious, and the survival of the fittest is gradually intensified. Many smaller companies with low sales volume not only have serious overcapacity, but still do not perform well when the industry is showing positive growth. If there is no fundamental change, it is basically hopeless to reverse the situation of overcapacity, and even face the survival barrier.

The production expansion of new energy vehicles is accelerated, and there are hidden worries about overcapacity.

The corresponding measure of overcapacity should have been an appropriate reduction in production, but data from the Automobile Federation show that there are still 10.46 million vehicles under construction in enterprises that already have the production qualification to be completed and put into production one after another. It is understood that most of these under construction are new energy vehicle projects.

According to the information released by the enterprise officials, many new projects will be put into production in 2022, such as FAW Hongqi's planned annual production capacity of 200000 new energy vehicles in Changchun, Jilin Province, FAW Toyota's annual planned production capacity of 200000 new energy vehicles in Tianjin, and Beam Automobile's annual planned production capacity of 160000 new energy vehicles in Zhangjiagang.

Since 2021, the new energy vehicle market has been growing by leaps and bounds, with production and sales reaching 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. The increase in sales is a good thing, but the surplus caused by the rapid expansion of capacity is worrying.

According to the data, 3.326 million new energy passenger vehicles were sold in 2021, while the dedicated capacity of new energy passenger vehicles has reached 5.695 million, with a capacity utilization rate of 58.4%. "the automobile industry should not only solve the problem of overcapacity of traditional cars, but also prevent the overcapacity of new energy vehicles." The bus Association pointed out.

However, as mentioned above, overcapacity is relative, and we have seen undercapacity in some excellent companies. In the coming period of time, the good situation of new energy vehicles will continue, but the market competition will also be intensified by Synchronize. According to the New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035) issued by the State Council, new energy vehicle sales will account for about 20% in 2025. The plan clearly proposes to "establish and improve the exit mechanism of zombie enterprises, strengthen the supervision and inspection of the maintenance of enterprise access conditions, and promote the survival of the fittest." In addition, the latest policy clearly stipulates that subsidies for new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2022. With the disappearance of this "welfare", many enterprises with overcapacity and undersales will face new tests.