SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?
SMM: recently, the rising prices of cobalt and lithium have triggered a heated discussion in the market, and predictions about their prices have emerged one after another. And in the future generally optimistic background, cobalt prices today ushered in another wave of rise. According to the historical price of SMM, as of December 22nd, the average spot price of electrolytic cobalt was 487000 yuan / ton, rising 3000 yuan / ton in a single day, approaching the price of 490000, a record high in the past three years.
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As for the reasons for the rise in cobalt prices, it is mainly driven by the explosive growth of new energy vehicles, the superimposed disturbance of the epidemic and the decline in imports of cobalt raw materials caused by the chaos of international shipping. Prior to this, Zhejiang ternary materials and pioneering enterprises and two cobalt salt enterprises officially stopped production on December 10, the news also once again ushered in a wave of jump in cobalt prices, December 15, the average price of electrolytic cobalt rose 9000 yuan / ton in a single day.
Recently, the rise in cobalt prices has cooled down. However, according to the latest data from the customs website, China's imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 8100 metal tons in November 2021, down 10 per cent from the same period last year. Among the imported raw materials, 293 metal tons (converted at 8% grade) were imported from cobalt mines in November, down 8% from the same period last year. From January to November 2021, China's cobalt ore imports totaled 1372 metal tons, down 65 percent from the same period last year. The decline in the import of cobalt raw materials also makes the shortage of domestic cobalt raw materials inventory still exist.
For future cobalt imports, SMM research shows that, combined with feedback from cobalt raw material suppliers and smelters, the shipping uncertainty will last at least until the first quarter of 2022, so SMM expects domestic cobalt raw material stocks to remain tight. Now to the end of the year, considering that the downstream of battery materials is mainly reduced inventory, so the domestic demand for battery materials is relatively light, but it is expected that from January 2022, downstream batteries and terminal enterprises will prepare for the Spring Festival, and market activity will increase. Combined with low cobalt raw material stocks and high prices, cobalt salt prices may continue to rise. "View details
As of December 22, the average spot prices of cobalt sulfate, cobalt chloride and cobalt tetroxide were 99250 yuan / ton, 122000 yuan / ton and 382500 yuan / ton, respectively.
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Under the rising price of cobalt, many institutions also give it optimistic expectations.
Galaxy Securities said that South African mutant novel coronavirus Omicron fermentation may affect Congo (DRC)-South Africa-China's global cobalt. From the perspective of raw material supply chain, the shortage of domestic cobalt raw material inventory may last until the first quarter of next year, leading to an accelerated rise in cobalt prices in the near future.
Huaan Securities said that the impact of the new mutant strain on logistics supply in South Africa continues, cobalt resources supply tension is not reduced, cobalt prices are expected to maintain the upward trend.
Northeast Securities believes that this round of cobalt bull market is mainly driven by real demand, demand side, downstream battery material orders warm up before the Spring Festival downstream restocking period, Xineng car 2022 early or showing a "off-season is not light" situation, procurement demand is supported, while the supply side visible supply increment is insufficient, Mutanda resumption progress and future production planning is lower than expected, superimposed the deterioration of the epidemic in South Africa, leading to supply not equal to demand, cobalt prices or continue the upward trend.
Citic Construction Investment said that the current phased replenishment is coming to an end, the action on cobalt prices can be weakened to a certain extent, but the cost side supports cobalt prices strongly, and cobalt prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term and may continue to rise in the medium and long term.
