The price surge spreads and the growth rate of the passenger car market may narrow to 2.9% next year.

Recently, the passenger car Association and the China Automobile Association have released passenger car production and sales data in October. Compared with September, passenger car production and sales in October showed a certain increase compared with the previous month, but the year-on-year data still showed a downward trend. Among them, statistics from the China Automobile Association show that passenger car sales in October were 2.007 million, down 5.0 per cent from a year earlier. From January to October this year, domestic passenger car sales were 16.871 million, an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2.2 percentage points lower than that of January-September.

The main reason for the decline in year-on-year growth in the passenger car market in the first 10 months is the imbalance between supply and demand caused by lack of core. In addition, the recent power restriction policy, accompanied by the rise in the price of power batteries, steel and other raw materials, has swept the entire automobile industry, resulting in another impact on the automobile terminal market, which was originally caused by lack of cores. As a result, the terminal car market has become a new normal, such as the tightening of the preferential range of the terminal car market, the price increase of popular models, and so on.

The discount rate in the new car market has been greatly reduced.

Recently, Mr. Liu has been worrying about buying a car. In the middle of last year, he planned to buy a Mercedes-Benz GLC,. The naked car price offered by the 4S store at that time was about 40, 000 less than the guidance price, but Mr. Liu temporarily abandoned the car purchase plan because of a change in his job. Not long ago, he went to the 4S store again, and the salesperson said that there was only a discount of 10,000 yuan at most. This makes Mr. Liu regret not buying it earlier.

"this year's transaction price is generally 2-3% higher than in previous years. In the past two years, our transaction price will generally be discounted by about 10 points on the basis of the official guidance price. Now it is only 5 points at most, and there is no discount on the terminal price of some tight models." The staff of a luxury brand 4S store told Galaxy.

Take the Mercedes-Benz GLC that Mr. Liu intends to buy as an example, the official guidance price of the 2021 GLC 300L 4MATIC is 454800 yuan. Through the invoices uploaded by hundreds of car owners on the barter APP, the author finds that the average discount range of the naked car transaction price in the terminal market is 5 points, that is to say, the average discount rate in the whole country is about 22000 yuan. Compared with previous years, this discount is obviously reduced a lot.

In addition, some popular models not only do not have any discount in the terminal market, but also the momentum of "price increase" has soared. Last month, Mr. Wang, the owner of a car in Hangzhou, bought a Hanlanda 2021 2.0T four-wheel-drive luxury model. The official price of the model was 299800 yuan, but the car was picked up by 2000 yuan, and the final price of the naked car was 301800 yuan. Mr. Wang said that the price of a naked car is already higher than the official guidance price. coupled with purchase tax and all kinds of insurance, the landing price of the whole car is close to 340000 yuan.

Although the current supply and demand structure of new cars is out of balance, there are not many users like Mr. Wang who are willing to increase prices to sell cars. According to a previous survey conducted by Galaxy, 62% of consumers said they would not accept price increases, but were willing to wait and see and wait for the right opportunity to buy them. 20% of users said they would switch to similar models of other brands with better prices, and only 18% said they were willing to accept a "price increase."

The "price hike" spreads to the used car market.

The price increase in the terminal car market brought about by the lack of core and power restriction is not only popular in the field of new cars, but also spread to the second-hand car market. Not long ago, the issue of "Mercedes-Benz and BMW dealers buy back used cars at invoice prices" sparked a heated discussion on the Internet. Some dealers said that in the past two years, the price of the new car was basically sold at a profit of 10 points on the basis of the official guided price, and now there is a profit even if it is bought back at the invoice price.

A sales consultant from Youxin used cars said that due to the shortage of chips, the waiting period for new cars has been extended, and quasi-new cars with low mileage are very popular, and the price of used luxury cars has generally risen by nearly 10% in recent months. In addition to the more popular luxury cars in the second-hand car market, Japanese cars such as Camry and Accord are also favored by consumers. The reason behind this is that these cars are more valuable. According to the statistics of Automobile House, Accord's three-year preservation rate is still as high as 75%.

As more and more consumers turn to the used car market, the trading volume of the domestic used car market has also risen sharply this year. According to data provided by the China Automobile Circulation Association, in September, the trading volume of used cars in the national market was 1.5753 million, up 5.14 percent from the previous month and 7.44 percent over the same period last year. From January to September this year, the trading volume of used cars reached 12.967 million, an increase of 35.34 percent over the same period last year. Industry analysts pointed out that the popularity of the second-hand car market this year indirectly shows that lack of core and price increases in the terminal market have a greater impact on the new car market.

The rising tide of terminal prices is difficult to be dispelled in the short term.

At this stage, the price rise in the terminal car market brought about by the lack of core in turn restricts the growth of passenger car market sales, and this phenomenon is likely to continue until next year.

Previously, Galaxy conducted a survey on "whether there will be a large-scale price increase in the car market next year". The survey results show that among the more than 500 people who voted, 39% of consumers thought that there would still be a price rise in the car market next year. The reason is that with the rise in the price of raw materials, the cost pressure of car companies will be greatly increased and will be passed on to the terminal market through price increases. Another 35% of consumers believe that the terminal price of the car market is affected by the structure of supply and demand, and the prices of a few popular models may rise, but the terminal prices of most models should return to the normal level. There are also 26% of consumers believe that the lack of core in the automobile industry will be greatly alleviated next year, so there will not be a large-scale price rise in the terminal car market.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the bus Federation, pointed out that as the terminal car market in November and December is in a state of promotion contraction, coupled with the insufficient supply of chips in the fourth quarter, the promotion efforts of the terminal car market before the end of the year are still very limited, and efforts will be gradually magnified early next year.

A senior analyst at the Global Automotive Research Institute said that in the first quarter of next year and even the whole first half of next year, the automobile industry will still be in a state of lack of cores, which superimposed problems such as power cuts and rising prices of raw materials, so that there is still great pressure on the production and sales of the domestic passenger car market in the first half of next year, but the performance of next year will be better than that of this year.

Due to the persistence of unfavorable factors such as lack of cores in the automobile industry and rising prices of raw materials this year, car sales for the whole year will further contract on the basis of 8.9% year-on-year growth in the first ten months. The Global Automotive Research Institute expects the growth of passenger car market sales this year to narrow to 5.8 per cent year-on-year, with production and sales growth of 4.4 per cent and 2.9 per cent respectively next year.