As the permeability of new energy vehicles continues to rise, the short board of vehicle recharging has also become a focus in addition to battery performance, and the layout of power exchange facilities is also accelerating at the same time.
Sinopec announced on the 22nd that it plans to build 5000 charging stations by 2025. On the 21st, Xilai announced a plan for the layout of high-speed power exchange networks in five vertical, three horizontal and four major metropolitan areas before the Spring Festival in 2022.
It is worth mentioning that Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the bus Association, also said in an article today that with the increase in the number of high-end electric cars, there is an urgent need to quickly recharge and replace power stations. Among them, the power exchange mode is a "good business model", which helps to enhance the user experience.
The inflection point of power exchange driven by four major factors has arrived.
"charge or change electricity?" The debate has existed for a long time, the charging mode was the mainstream choice of the market, and only a few brands such as Weilai and BAIC supported the change of electricity. Now, however, the once "silent" track of changing electricity is gradually on the rise.
Founder Securities reported yesterday that there are four core reasons behind the acceleration of power exchange.
First, from the perspective of the power exchange mode itself, the technology is constantly iterative. Nowadays, the power replacement time is generally 3-5 minutes, and the fastest can be reduced to 90 seconds; with the improvement of automation, the power exchange station has become unattended; the power exchange process also tends to be standardized in the future to achieve power replacement for a variety of vehicles. The power exchange mode has multiple advantages at the battery, user, Electroweb, car enterprises, national and social levels.
Second, there is the boost of the upper design. At present, the national policy supports power exchange, provides for battery standards and safety requirements for power exchange, promotes the standardization of power exchange, and encourages the development of power exchange as a supplement to new energy infrastructure. At the same time, the subsidy for electric vehicles should be maintained.
Specifically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Energy Bureau have previously issued a pilot plan, the Industry Department of the National Development and Reform Commission investigated the power exchange mode in early September, and the China Automobile Association last month solicited opinions on the group standard for the construction of shared exchange stations for electric passenger vehicles. In addition, the change of electricity has been included in the Government work report for two consecutive years.
Third, the business model is becoming more and more mature. Tesla has tried to change electricity before, but in the end, it was launched due to many factors, such as terminal demand, industrial chain, input-output ratio and so on. At present, the industry has realized the car-electricity separation mode, and there are application scenarios in operating vehicles, commercial vehicles, high-end private cars and so on.
Fourth, the influx of industrial capital is also accelerating. Since last year, the registration of new power exchange enterprises has increased by an order of magnitude, the investment of mainframe factories has also increased, the number of power exchange models has increased, and the cooperation between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has been deepened.
However, Cui Dongshu also pointed out that the power exchange mode has an obvious disadvantage, that is, the vehicle design almost loses the freedom of battery structure, which makes it more difficult for all vehicles to adapt.
How is the development of power exchange at this stage? Statistics show that as of April this year, there were 617 power stations across the country. In terms of power-changing vehicles, as of mid-May 2021, there were about 78800 private passenger cars, accounting for nearly half of the total. In addition, another part of the power-changing models are mainly online car-hailing and taxis, as well as some high-end models.
Analysts predict that by 2025, sales of electric passenger cars are expected to exceed 2.8 million, while those of e-commerce are expected to sell 500000. The demand for matching replacement power stations is about 28000, corresponding to the market size of 76.5 billion; the demand for matching batteries is about 55GWhh, corresponding to the market size of 38.8 billion; and corresponding to electricity revenue of 216.8 billion; the total size of the industrial chain is about 332.1 billion.
Founder Securities said in the above report that the inflection point of the power exchange industry has arrived, and there is a lot of room for each link. Among them,
Manufacturers and operators can enjoy industry dividends from 1 to 10: Shandong Weida, Xiexin Nengke, Hanchuan Intelligence, Bozhong Seiko, HKUST Intelligence, etc.
Heavy trucks and operating vehicles will be the forerunners of power exchange applications: Hanma Technology, Geely Automobile, BAIC Blue Valley, Wuling Automobile, Xilai and so on.
