The price of cement in Guangdong, Guangxi and Yungui breaks through the high level.

Since August, cement prices have been raised many times in Guangdong, Guangdong and Yungui. Analysts believe that the current cement demand season is gradually entering the peak season, and the reduction in supply under the influence of the superimposed double control policy has contributed to the rise in cement prices in many places, such as Guangdong and Guangdong, Yungui and so on. In addition, some analysts believe that at present, many factors, such as cost and energy control, may be good for the head enterprises and accelerate the reshuffle of the industry.

In the secondary market, the cement sector has risen significantly in the past ten trading days. The Tonghua cement manufacturing sector rose nearly 14 per cent; 002233.SZ rose more than 40 per cent; Shangfeng cement (000672.SZ) rose more than 30 per cent; and conch cement (600585.SH) and 000789.SZ (000789.SZ) rose more than 20 per cent.

Cement prices in Guang Guang, Yungui and other places have risen.

Recently, cement prices have risen in many places in Guangdong, Guangxi and Yungui, with a range of about 50 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton, and the cumulative price increase range from 130 yuan / ton to 230 yuan / ton from August to September. At present, the price of cement in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangzhou has broken through the high prices in the first half of the year. According to industry insiders, it has been reported recently that the price of bulk cement in Guangdong will still be raised.

On September 13, the centennial construction network cement price index was 509 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from the previous month, 4.11% from the previous week, and 10.81% from the same period last year.

In response, Wei Yu, an analyst at China cement Network, said that at present, the peak season of cement demand is gradually entering, and the reduction in supply under the influence of the superimposed double control policy has contributed to the rise in cement prices in Guangdong, Guangdong and Yungui. However, the century-old construction network cement senior analyst Jiang Yuanlin told reporters that the current market demand side has not significantly improved, the downstream market acceptance of the price increase is not high, showing a price but no city as a whole.

It is understood that the cement industry has always had a strong regional attribute. The price increases in Guangzhou, Yunnan and Guizhou are greatly affected by the "double control policy". In August, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the barometer of the completion of double control targets of energy consumption in various regions in the first half of 2021, nine provinces (regions), including Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan, were first-level early warning in terms of total energy consumption control.

Then, a number of provinces responded quickly. Recently, due to the strengthening of double control of energy consumption, Guangxi has imposed production restrictions on local cement enterprises, in which the output of the cement industry in September shall not exceed 40% of the average monthly output in the first half of 2021, and the electricity load in September shall not exceed 40% of the average monthly load in the first half of the year. According to the energy consumption restriction notice of the Yunnan Development and Reform Commission, in September 2021, local cement production will be reduced by more than 80% from August, and all cement companies will have a peak break time of no less than 40 days from October to December.

Tacai Group said that under the current environment of double energy consumption control in Guangdong and Guangxi, the cement supply end is tightening and the company's cement inventory is declining in an orderly manner. The company has always done a good job in production organization in strict accordance with the relevant requirements of the government, and timely adjust the marketing strategy according to the market supply and demand. At present, no major changes have taken place in the disclosed business situation and the internal and external business environment. The recent continuous rise in cement prices will have a certain impact on the company's operating performance, but the impact is not significant.

Evergreen told reporters that there is no production restriction policy in Jiangxi at present, and the company is in full capacity production. Due to the strong regional nature of cement sales, the current sales market is mainly in Jiangxi and some neighboring provinces. If the surrounding area and the company's main market form a large "price upside down", or timely consider adjusting the sales structure.

The high position may stabilize after the National Day.

A person from a cement company in Guangdong told reporters, "at present, some parts of Guangdong limit energy consumption for the scale of enterprises." In this way, the production capacity of large factories is relatively high, and the energy consumption that can be obtained is also relatively high. If the price can go up, it will have an advantage for big enterprises. In addition, this may cause small enterprises to limit their production capacity and lose some of their advantages in the face of large-scale key projects. "

Jiang also said that at present, many factors, such as cost and energy control, may be good for the head enterprises and speed up the reshuffle of the industry.

It is worth noting that from the previous half-yearly report data disclosed by cement enterprises, a number of enterprises do not increase profits. Wei Yu said that the main reason is that thermal coal prices have risen significantly since the beginning of this year, production costs of various enterprises have increased, cement prices have declined significantly during the off-season from mid-to-late May to July, and enterprises in some areas have suffered periodic losses. with cement prices rising in various places since August, they have basically returned to the level above the cost line.

For the cement market forecast for the second half of the year, Wei said that judging from the current situation, many provinces have implemented a dual-control policy, and the supply of the entire cement market is expected to decrease in the second half of the year. The downstream real estate demand, infrastructure demand is relatively rigid. Affected by supply and demand, prices may rise by a large margin. It is expected that the profits of most cement companies will pick up in the fourth quarter, but in view of the strong production restrictions in some areas, the reduction will hinder the improvement of profits.

Jiang Yuanlin said, "demand in the second half of the year is expected to be basically the same as last year." At present, the state restricts production through the double-control policy, and it is expected to control demand within a certain range to ensure the stability of supply and demand. As for the price, the current price (Guangdong, Guangdong, Yungui and other places) is expected to maintain for some time. I think it is expected to stabilize after the National Day. High prices are more likely to stabilize. From the point of view of enterprises, costs have risen significantly this year, and the current prices may still face some pressure on enterprises. But from the long-term law of the industry, generally speaking, the second half of the year will be better than the first half.