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Shengang Securities: the revenue growth rate of Taiwan's semiconductor industry has reached a new high and the global semiconductor industry has just begun.
Jul 22,2021 14:01CST
Translation
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This week's focus: the revenue growth rate of Taiwan's semiconductor industry has reached a new high, and the global semiconductor industry has just begun. Recently, Taiwan's semiconductor and other technology manufacturing companies have released operating data for June. On the whole, the semiconductor recovery has reached a new peak and the overall economy has reached its third quarter. The semiconductor sub-industries with the highest revenue growth are: DRAM chip 76.12% year-on-year growth rate 75.17% in the month of design IC design month-on-year growth rate of 75.17%, passive component resistance-SMD resistance month-on-year 62.59%, passive component-capacitor-multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) month-on-year 61.02%, Taiwan stock revenue: PCB raw material: copper foil substrate (CCL): 57.47% year-on-year, Taiwan stock revenue: PCB raw material: glass yarn / cloth: month 56.39% year-on-year, Taiwan stock revenue: PCB raw material: 55.84% year-on-year, Taiwan stock revenue: DRAM: month-on-year 55.12%, Taiwan stock revenue: PCB raw material: copper foil: that month 51.7% year-on-year, Taiwan stock revenue: passive component: 49.29% year-on-year, Taiwan stock revenue: PCB manufacturing: assembly: 47.72% year-on-year, Revenue of Taiwan stocks: passive components: capacitors: aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 35.6% of the same month last year, revenue of Taiwan stocks: PCB manufacturing: IC board: 30.56% of the same month last year, revenue of Taiwan stocks: passive components: resistors: wafer resistors: 27.68% of the same month last year, revenue of Taiwan stocks: IC manufacturing: 25.23% of the same month last year.

Since the beginning of 2020, the world's major semiconductor index has continued its bull market, with China's semiconductor index up 146%, Taiwan's semiconductor index up 78% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index up 72%. Since July last year, the growth rate of the overseas semiconductor industry has been weaker than that of the China Semiconductor Industry Index. At present, the rapid recovery of revenue in Taiwan's semiconductor industry will gradually feedback in the financial report in the second half of 2021, and the high prosperity of the global semiconductor industry is expected to have just begun.

The global chip shortage has not been alleviated:

Affected by the shortage of chips and the upgrading and switching period of emission standards, automobile production and sales fell to a certain extent in May and June. In June, automobile production and sales completed 1.943 million and 2.015 million vehicles respectively, down 4.8% and 5.3% from the previous month, and 16.5% and 12.4% respectively from the same period last year. The global perspective also includes Toyota's suspension of production due to chip shortages; General Motors said it is extending the shutdown time of five crossover factories in North America due to chip shortages; Mercedes-Benz brand cut its sales forecast for this year because of chip shortages; and Tesla's Powerwall backlog exceeded $500 million due to chip shortages.

According to the International Semiconductor Industry Association ((SEMI)), the revenue of the electronic system design (ESD) industry grew by a record 17% in the first quarter, while the sales of the semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry are expected to exceed $100 billion by 2022. The revenue of various segments of the ESD industry, such as IC design, PCB design, semiconductor IP, etc., increased significantly in 2021.

On May 26, China's Beijing Yuanxin carbon-based Integrated Circuit Research Institute announced that through continuous research by researchers, the bottleneck in the manufacture of carbon-based semiconductor materials has been broken, and long-term research problems such as material purity, density and area have been solved. Carbon-based materials also have the advantage of good malleability, and flexible devices can be made in the medical field to assist dangerous work at high radiation and high temperatures. On the downstream application side, carbon-based chips will bring further breakthroughs in the battery life of smart mobile electronic devices, and the duration of a single charge of a smartphone will be greatly increased without having to worry about overheating during use. these are the heights that can not be reached by chips made of second-generation semiconductor materials at present.

Under the current technical conditions, carbon-based chips are expected to achieve the mature manufacturing process of 90nm in the next 5 years. If realized, the performance of this kind of carbon-based chip has approached the physical limit that silicon-based chip can achieve, at the same time, it releases a large purchase cost of semiconductor materials for the domestic semiconductor market, and brings a new dawn for domestic chips.

Weekly meso data

Upstream energy and metals: crude oil and natural gas prices are down, coal futures prices are up, foreign coal prices are up, domestic coking coal stocks are down, rare earth metal prices are up, BDI index is down.

Mid-stream raw materials: steel and iron ore prices up, inventory end increased as a whole, glass futures prices up, cement prices down, futures prices of major chemical products up, commercial truck sales down.

Downstream consumption: commercial housing and cumulative housing sales area and amount up, new energy vehicle production up, pork prices down, corn and white chicken prices down, cotton and vegetable wholesale price index up.

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