On July 21, the market for lithium resources returned after a few days of silence. Lithium battery plate set off a trading trend, adsorption lithium leader Jiuwo Hi-Tech 20cm led the rise, A-share lithium resources two leading Ganfeng lithium industry and Tianqi lithium industry also rose by the daily limit, and the market capitalization stood at a new high. In addition, nearly 20 stocks, such as Jiangte Motor, Rongjie shares, and Tibet Mining, rose more than 10 percent. Subdivide the concept of salt lake lithium plate Dongcai index soared 8% in a day.
From a financial point of view, today, institutional seats net bought 250 million of Ganfeng Lithium Industry and 300 million of Tianqi Lithium Industry; northward funds bought Ganfeng Lithium Industry 34.61 million in total after a large number of buying and selling; in addition, Shaanxi Branch of Xinxia Securities, a commonly used seat in the top tourist side, bought Ganfeng Lithium Industry 130 million on a large scale, and Guangfa Securities Zhengzhou Agricultural Road also grabbed Tianqi Lithium Industry to reach 300 million.
Institutions cry: the price of lithium can still rise.
Before the Japanese market rose again, there were signs of a rise in commodity prices. The price of lithium hydroxide has risen continuously in the past 30 weeks, which the Everbright Nonferrous team said was due to the recent increase in ternary demand for high nickel in the market, while the price of upstream raw material spodumene remained high. Lithium carbonate inventory fell for the first time in nearly 10 weeks, superimposed lithium carbonate prices rose slightly, representing a stronger willingness to purchase downstream. According to the analysis of relevant institutions, the mainstream battery scheduling plan in July increased by 5.1% compared with June, and the price of lithium salt will still be boosted in the future.
Based on the analysis of this round of supply and demand and inventory, Guotai Junan believes that the height, rhythm and persistence of this round of lithium price rise will exceed expectations, and the lithium price increase in the second half of the year is predicted to be 180000 / ton higher than before history.
It is difficult to alleviate the shortage of supply and demand without changing the fundamentals of lithium electricity.
In fact, a few days ago, lithium battery plate adjustment, institutions for the current round of A-share new energy vehicles lithium electricity market has expressed a different attitude, Anxin Securities and Societe Generale Securities tend to any consensus direction of extreme interpretation should not be overtaken, CITIC Securities said that the main line of the third quarter is still new energy and semiconductors, there is an opportunity to enter the market.
However, for the commodity side, the views of most institutions tend to be the same: the boom of new energy vehicles continues to drive the growth of demand for lithium salt, and the shortage of supply is difficult to alleviate in the short term.
If you do not consider the impact of the market, back to the fundamentals, Guotai Junan said in the latest lithium industry report that the second half of 2021 is the most tight period of supply and demand in the lithium industry in recent years. With the frequent emergence of popular models of electric cars and the stimulation of new energy policies in the United States and Europe, the market continues to revise the demand for lithium electricity in the second half of the year, and the demand for lithium electricity in the second half of the year is expected to increase by about 50% compared with the On the supply side, due to the rigidity of short-term supply, the second half of the year coincides with the vacuum period of new supply release. Whether it is the resource side or the lithium smelter, the supply in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 is basically the same as in the second quarter, with few increments.
It predicts that with the increase in the purchase quantity of lithium in downstream enterprises, the downstream attitude towards procurement will evolve from normal procurement to replenishment to rush for goods, while the tension between supply and demand and the change of lithium price are non-linear.
So why does the leading Ganfeng lithium industry and Tianqi lithium industry soar? Wang Qi of Guosheng Securities said that after the industry reshuffle caused by lithium price fluctuations from 2018 to 2020, the oligopoly pattern of lithium resources has become prominent, and enterprises with integrated resources processing can rely on the business structure of integration of upstream and downstream. At the raw material end, raw material quality can be guaranteed, costs can be reduced, processing technology can be further refined, differentiated product research and development can be carried out at the processing end, and the value chain can continue to be extended to the high end. The intrinsic value of the enterprise raw material end layout and vertical integration strategy with the advantage of resource processing integration is prominent.