Chip shortage triggers "Butterfly effect" US manufacturing output fell unexpectedly in June

On Thursday, the federal reserve said manufacturing output fell 0.1 per cent month-on-month in June, following a 0.9 per cent rise in may. On the face of it, the decline in output was dragged down by a 6.6 per cent drop in carmakers' output, but in the final analysis it was a knock-on effect caused by a global chip shortage.

Previously, economists had expected manufacturing output to grow by 0.2 per cent in June. Because since the novel coronavirus epidemic in the United States in March 2020, at least 160 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated against novel coronavirus, coupled with low interest rates and nearly $6 trillion in government benefits to boost consumer demand. Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9 per cent of the US economy, is expected to record moderate growth.

While this series of stimulus measures promote the growth of spending on travel and leisure-related services and dining out, consumer demand for automotive products is extremely strong.

Overall industrial output, including mining and utility output, rose 0.4 per cent in June, revised to 0.7 per cent in may, according to fed data.

Global carmakers with lack of cores are in urgent need of production capacity.

In the face of huge demand, many American automakers have already begun to adjust their production plans. However, a series of government measures to stimulate consumption have not only boosted demand for cars, but also exacerbated tensions in the global supply chain, exacerbating shortages of raw materials such as chips, forcing some carmakers to stop work.

On Thursday, General Motors (GM.N) announced directly that its Lansing Delta town assembly plant in Michigan and its Spring Hill assembly plant in Tennessee would be shut down from July 19 to July 26.

Output by US automakers fell 6.6 per cent in June, according to the data. Throughout the second quarter, the production of cars and parts shrank by 22.5%.

It is worth noting that the reduction in car production has also boosted consumer demand for used cars and trucks, which has been a major driver of consumer inflation in the United States in recent months.

Will the supply problem ease eventually?

At present, it seems that the United States is still optimistic about the decline in manufacturing output caused by the lack of cores.

A recent report from the New York Fed showed that factory output in New York surged in July, with new orders and shipments both growing strongly.

In addition, although the Philadelphia Fed reported a decline in the region's manufacturing index this month, local factories, including eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware, continued to expand steadily.

"there is evidence that the supply of automotive raw materials may begin to be gradually resolved later this year or early 2022." Veronica Clark (Veronica Clark), an economist at CITI BANK in New York.

"We expect manufacturing output to be supported in 2022 as supply problems for raw materials such as chips ease, as long as demand remains strong," he said. "