The purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry was basically flat in June, and the expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index slowed down.

On June 30, 2021, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

In June, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.9%, 53.5% and 52.9% respectively, down 0.1,1.7 and 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but all remained above the critical point, and China's economic operation continued to expand.

I. the purchasing manager index of the manufacturing industry runs smoothly

In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell slightly by 0.1 percentage point, continuing to stay in the boom range, while the manufacturing sector maintained steady expansion. The main features of this month are:

First, supply and demand drop by one liter at both ends. The production index was 51.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Recently, the production activity of some enterprises has been affected by factors such as tight supply of chips, coal, electricity and equipment maintenance, and production expansion has slowed down. The index of new orders was 51.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting continued growth in market demand. The performance of different industries varies greatly this month. The production index and new order index of textile, clothing, pharmaceutical and other industries are all in the high prosperity range of 56.0% and above, which is more than 2.0% higher than that of the previous month, and production and demand are growing rapidly. The two indices of the oil, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industries have all fallen below the critical point, and the prosperity level of the industry has declined; the two indices of the automobile manufacturing industry have been in the contraction range for two months in a row, and "lack of core" and other factors have adversely affected the development of the industry.

Second, the import and export index has dropped. The index of new export orders was 48.1%, down 0.2% from the previous month, indicating a decline in foreign orders for the manufacturing industry. among them, the index of new export orders in agricultural and non-ferrous metal processing, ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing is less than 43.0%. The import index fell below the critical point of 49.7%, down from 1.2 percentage points last month, reflecting a decrease in imports of raw materials for manufacturing production compared with the previous month.

Third, the high price index fell. Recently, a series of policies of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" have shown their effect, and the rapid rise in manufacturing prices has been initially curbed. This month, the purchase price index and factory gate price index of major raw materials both changed from rising to falling, to 61.2% and 51.4% respectively, down from 11.6 and 9.2 percentage points last month. Judging from the purchase price index of major raw materials, with the exception of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries, all other industries have dropped significantly. Judging from the ex-factory price index, most industries have fallen to varying degrees, including ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry, all falling to the contraction range; however, the oil, coal and other fuel processing industries are still higher than 70.0%, and the ex-factory prices of products continue to rise.

Fourth, the PMI of enterprises of different sizes is generally stable. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 51.7 per cent and 50.8 per cent respectively, down 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points from last month, and remained within the expansion range. The PMI of small businesses was 49.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, although it is still in the contraction range, but the boom has improved.

Fifth, the prosperity of the consumer goods manufacturing industry has increased. Driven by factors such as a pick-up in market demand and mid-year promotions, consumer goods manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high of 52.2 per cent this month, up 1.6 per cent from last month. Among them, the production index and new order index were 53.9% and 54.6% respectively, up from 1.0 and 3.5 percentage points last month, and the expansion of industry production and demand accelerated.

Second, the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry has dropped somewhat.

In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.5 per cent, down from 1.7 percentage points last month. The non-manufacturing sector continued to expand, but the expansion has weakened.

The service industry has maintained its recovery. Affected by factors such as local epidemics in individual areas, the service industry business activity index fell to 52.3%, down from 2.0 percentage points last month, but still higher than the critical point, indicating that the service industry has steadily recovered. From the perspective of the industry, driven by the promotion activities in the middle of the "618" year, this month, the business activity indices of postal express delivery, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, which are closely related to online consumption, are all in a relatively high prosperity range above 57.0%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly; monetary and financial services and the insurance industry have all risen to more than 60.0% of the high prosperity range, and business activities have accelerated significantly. In addition, the business activity index of air transport, accommodation, catering and other industries fell below the critical point, and market activity decreased. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 60.4%, which continues to remain in the high boom range and is higher than the level of the same period in recent years, reflecting that service enterprises continue to be optimistic about the prospects for the development of the market.

The construction industry is running smoothly in the high boom range. The business activity index of the construction industry is 60.1%, which is the same as that of the previous month, and it has been in the high boom range for two consecutive months, and the construction industry has maintained rapid growth. From the price point of view, the construction industry input price index and sales price index fell to 51.7% and 52.0% respectively, of which the input price index dropped 21.9 percentage points to a nine-month low, and the upward pressure on construction costs has eased somewhat.

III. The composite PMI output index continues to expand.

In June, the composite PMI output index was 52.9%, down from 1.3 percentage points last month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have generally maintained expansion, but the intensity has weakened. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, are 51.9 per cent and 53.5 per cent, respectively.