Lead stocks in the domestic lead market continued to rise, suppressing futures prices. Shanghai lead continued to weaken and fell below the five-thousand-five line. Today, the main contract closed at 14945 yuan / ton, down 0.99%. The intraday low was brushed at a recent two-month low.
Macro market sentiment is repeated. Data released on Friday showed that the United States added 559000 non-farm jobs in May, lower than the 650000 that economists had expected. The results were much lower than expected to ease market concerns about the Fed's early downsizing of QE, which is certain to be positive for non-ferrous metals. Huatai Futures Analysis said that although the current macro inflection point has not yet been reached, the differentiation of the market for the future macro trend continues to intensify, and in order to prevent commodities from rising excessively, a series of subsequent policy measures may also continue to depress prices.
In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market is currently suppressed by rising inventories. According to data released last week, lead stocks in Shanghai rose for six weeks in a row. In the week of June 4, weekly inventories rose 12.88% to 105372 tons, an eight-year high. Jinyuan Futures Research believes that the off-season situation of the downstream lead battery market remains unchanged, the replacement market demand is low, and the finished product inventory of automobile battery enterprises is more than a month. In order to reduce inventory pressure, some enterprises continue to reduce production. The terminal consumption of electric storage battery market has not improved greatly, and the production enterprises fix production by sales.
Compared with weak demand, supply-side performance has some support for futures prices. Lead smelting enterprises entered the routine maintenance cycle in April and May, and the data showed that domestic lead production fell sharply in April. At the same time, the import of lead ore has been blocked, the domestic lead ore supply has been in short supply, the lead concentrate processing fee has further declined, and the production pressure of refineries has increased. Yide Futures pointed out that the overhaul of domestic primary lead refineries may be gradually restored, and the impact of its transmission from the mine end to the spindle end still needs to be continuously concerned.
For the future performance of futures prices, Jin Rui Futures believes that smelting will recover from overhaul in June, domestic inventories may continue to grow under the background of off-season, and the short-term lead market is in a game of tight ingots and loose ingots. Due to spot weakness, June futures delivery pressure makes the performance of lead will be weaker than other varieties, the overall volatility of lead prices is expected to be weak.
