China Rebar Stocks up 10.4% on Week

[Europe] As mill operations face repeated disruptions, domestic supply within the European Union has seen periodic shortages. This week, three production disruptions were reported across the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy; notably, ArcelorMittal Eisenhüttenstadt announced a temporary partial shutdown of its 5A blast furnace. Despite these bullish supply-side factors, buying interest remains subdued, leaving hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices with only marginal gains and trading within a narrow range overall. In Northern Europe, burdened by high inventories, mills quoted a delivered base price of 760 EUR/tonne DDP (~866 USD/tonne) to buyers currently hesitant to book large volumes; for orders reaching 5,000 tonnes, delivered base prices could potentially be negotiated down to 730 EUR/tonne DDP (~832 USD/tonne). Traders reported that most concluded transactions currently fall between 740–760 EUR/tonne EXW (~844–866 USD/tonne). The domestic Italian market remains sluggish, where the core challenge lies in mills struggling to pass costs onto downstream sectors while attempting to secure sufficient sales volumes.

[Iran] Iranian steel exports displayed a distinct structural divergence of "constrained maritime logistics versus buoyant overland border trade." Disrupted Black Sea supplies from Russia and Ukraine diverted West Asian buying interest toward Iranian material. Iranian suppliers recently concluded at least 15,000 tonnes of square billets at 420–430 USD/tonne FCA at Iranian border crossings, primarily for transit via Iraq to Syria and Jordan; despite border congestion inflating transport costs, buyers readily paid premiums to secure prompt cargoes. In contrast, seaborne exports were severely stifled by US naval enforcement, vessel shortages, and elevated insurance premiums, leaving liquidity for bulk shipments paralyzed (freight to Sohar, Oman stood at 18–25 USD/tonne). With major mills fully booked through late November, spot sea liquidity remained thin, limited to small billet parcels sold to neighboring Gulf markets at 410–415 USD/tonne FOB. Notably, slab export activity ground to a halt as mills turned their focus entirely to domestic demand. In the flat steel segment, HRC moved steadily via the Shalamcheh border crossing to Iraq at 540–560 USD/tonne FCA; meanwhile, across the Caspian Sea route, a lack of available vessel capacity prevented Russian material from concluding, keeping import activity virtually frozen.