The energy storage industry ushered in favorable policies. On April 21, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "guidance on accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage (draft for soliciting opinions)" (hereinafter referred to as "opinion draft"), to achieve the transformation of new energy storage from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development by 2025.
The "opinion draft" proposes that by 2025, the installed scale of the new type of energy storage will reach more than 30 million kilowatts, and the new type of energy storage will play a significant role in promoting carbon peak carbon neutralization in the energy field. By 2030, the comprehensive market-oriented development of the new type of energy storage will be realized, and the installed scale of the new type of energy storage will basically meet the corresponding needs of the new power system, which will become one of the key supports for carbon peak carbon neutralization in the energy field.
Guosheng new team believes that, according to the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, by the end of 2020, China's cumulative energy storage capacity is 35.6GW, with the exception of pumped storage, the installed scale of other technologies is 3.81GW, of which the cumulative installed scale of lithium battery energy storage is 2.9GW. This policy is expected to accelerate the development of new energy storage technology in the short term, and the cumulative installed scale is expected to achieve a 10-fold increase from 2020 to 2035.
From the perspective of the industry, with the continuous progress of the parity process of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy, and the continuous improvement of new energy installed capacity, new energy power generation has the characteristics of intermittence and instability, and the resulting energy consumption problem has become increasingly prominent. The construction of energy storage power station can be used to cut peak and fill valley and improve the reliability of power supply.
At present, the application value of energy storage in power system has been widely recognized, all parties in the industry hold a positive attitude towards the prospect of energy storage, and the cost of energy storage has been reduced year by year, but specific to the application of energy storage, the enthusiasm of various market participants in the power system to install energy storage is still not high, and the current power market environment is still difficult to reflect the value of energy storage.
It is worth noting that the realization of "carbon neutralization" development of energy storage is imperative, and the proportion of domestic renewable energy grid-connected energy storage is increasing rapidly. According to CNESA statistics, by the end of 2020, the cumulative installed scale of electrochemical energy storage projects in China ranked second, with 3.27GW, an increase of 91.2% over the same period last year, accounting for 9.2% of all energy storage technologies, up 3.9 percentage points from 5.3% at the end of 2019.
Shen Wanhongyuan Research and report pointed out that promoting the integration of load and storage in the source network and the complementary development of multi-energy requires the rational allocation of energy storage, optimizing the scale of matching energy storage, and giving full play to the role of supporting energy storage in peak regulation and frequency regulation. Minimize the comprehensive power generation cost of wind and solar storage, and enhance the overall competitiveness. From 2018 to 2020, the proportion of grid-connected energy storage of renewable energy in China is 11.3%, 17.0% and 34.6% respectively, and the demand for grid-connected energy storage configuration of renewable energy is increasing rapidly.
Although the necessity of energy storage is getting stronger and stronger, the current electricity market mechanism and price mechanism in our country are not perfect. As a result, many manufacturers install energy storage only to meet the requirements of access to the Internet, and in order to achieve low-cost access to the Internet, they are equipped with low-quality energy storage batteries, resulting in the phenomenon of "Bad money drives out good".
A few days ago, a fire occurred at the Xima Factory No. 14 energy storage power station in Yonghongmen, Fengtai District, Beijing. this safety accident may enable the government to establish a relatively complete safety assessment standard for energy storage projects at the government level. the focus is on the safety standards and standardization of lithium-ion batteries, so it may usher in a new round of reshuffle in the industry, and the performance and cost of lithium batteries will become double assessment standards for the energy storage lithium battery industry.
Open source securities believe that due to the many steps in lithium-ion battery manufacturing, the control of each link is more test the level of enterprises, so the existing leading enterprises have more advantages to win in this reshuffle, power lithium battery leader Ningde era, BYD, household energy storage leading technology will coruscate a strong competitiveness in this reshuffle, energy storage market share may be significantly increased.
Specific to investment opportunities, Chuancai Securities Research newspaper suggested that attention should be paid to lithium batteries, inverters and iron-lithium positive head enterprises in the energy storage industry chain. Can pay attention to three main lines: 1, energy storage battery related targets: Ningde era, Penghui Energy, Parergy Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy; 2, Inverter targets: solar power, Gudwei; 3, cathode materials: German Nano, Fulin Seiko.
Shen Wanhongyuan Securities Research News pointed out that energy storage technology is the key technology to support the clean transformation of the power system, and there is a broad space for long-term development. With the improvement of the importance of the safety of the power plant, the leading competitiveness of the technology-leading industry is highlighted, and low-quality suppliers are expected to accelerate clearance. Recommended targets: Ningde era, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Sunshine Power supply, Gu Dewei. Suggested attention: Paineng Technology, Nandu Power supply, Nebula shares, Costa.
