The fluctuation of steel price increases the risk aversion of steel enterprises.

At present, the volatility of the black commodity market is increasing, and people in the industry are specially invited to analyze and look forward to the situation and price trend of the ferrous metal industry, so as to provide reference for enterprises to do a good job in risk management.

After the Spring Festival, rebar futures jumped high and experienced two consecutive weeks of unilateral upward. According to market analysis, under the background of winter off-season and Spring Festival holiday in February, the actual turnover of the steel market is weak, and the high profits of electric furnace plants also drive short-process steel mills to rush to work during the Spring Festival, resulting in a rapid increase in inventory. In addition, the macro atmosphere is good, the policy expectation of "carbon neutralization" is extremely strong, and the factors of celebrating the Spring Festival are superimposed. The market believes that demand will return to a higher level after the 15th day of the first lunar month, and the performance of the futures market is more excited. Li Boya, a steel analyst from the Black Division of German Futures, said in an exclusive interview with the Futures Daily that at present, the bottom of the black system continues to move up, and the profits of disk steel mills are also expanding. It is suggested that industrial chain enterprises should hedge and lock in profits.

A large number of March periods are now entering the market.

On March 5, there was a pullback in the concentrated release of black varieties on the plate. In this regard, Li Boya said that after the black market runs to March, the construction demand has actually landed, and the early disk feedback is expected to start after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month. Judging from the actual situation in the first week of March, although demand has indeed recovered earlier, the proportion of national demand recovery is less than 50%, which is a big difference from previous expectations. In addition, with the divergence of opinions between the US Senate and House of Representatives, the US $1.9 trillion economic stimulus expected by the market has been weakened, macro factors have also appeared to be less than expected, overseas risk aversion has rebounded, and non-ferrous varieties have met expectations. It also has a negative impact on capital sentiment in the black market. In addition, she believes that due to the relatively general start-up of demand, the spot mood is obviously not as strong as the disk, the snail once appeared a disk rising structure, resulting in an expansion of the discount spread in the first week of March, and a large number of funds have been set up.

According to the reporter's understanding, in this rising market, many industrial chain enterprises have participated in hedging.

Company An is a color painting processing plant in Boxing. The pre-festival color painting order was received in April, and the order has been locked in price. Considering that the inventory of hot rolling in Boxing area is already high, and there are also profits from cold rolling and galvanizing processing in the current period, it is expected that the inventory of cold rolling base materials and galvanizing will also rise after the festival, and the market in January will face the end of domestic off-season and overseas phased replenishment, the double pressure of overseas prices and order follow-up difficulties, and the high price accounts for a relatively serious pressure on funds. Enterprise An is more cautious in the process of raw material winter storage and has not carried out a large area of raw material replenishment.

Affected by the increase in the allocation of overseas risk assets during the Spring Festival, post-holiday prices jumped high. Enterprise A realized that there was a risk exposure of raw material prices in the current period, but it was difficult to buy a large number of spot purchases at the beginning of the year. On the first working day after the festival, the hot-rolled coil was bought with 4713 yuan / ton on the disk, and the raw material cost was bought and protected. At that time, the galvanized base difference was 997 yuan / ton. Until March 3, the market broke through 5000 yuan / ton, boosted by the Tangshan production restriction news, and there was a rise in the spot market compared to the hot-rolled coil, at this time, the spot market transaction has basically resumed. so An enterprises in the spot market in the spot market with an average price of 5940 yuan / ton to purchase galvanized spot, in 5028 yuan / ton will be more than a single position to close its risk exposure, at this time the basis is 912 yuan / ton.

In Li Boya's view, enterprise An avoided the risk of rising raw material prices after the holiday through the futures market, locking up the cost while locking the price, which was equivalent to locking in the processing profit in advance, and through the choice of positions between futures and spot, the profit of reducing the basis was obtained, and its processing profit was optimized by 85 yuan / ton.

"the successful experience of Enterprise A can also be used for reference by other enterprises. Looking to the future, the central bank begins to tighten liquidity before the Spring Festival, and pallet funds are heavily pressed on high inventories, but the reality is that demand starts are obviously lower than expected. High prices easily lead to strong selling pressure on pallet funds, prices have correction pressure, and the correction is expected to occur in mid-late March." She said.

It is appropriate for steel mills to lock in profits by hedging in advance.

Market analysis, before the full start of terminal demand, steel prices relatively maintain a stable operation. Due to the higher early expectations of the disk, the top may move down in the future, and the spot performance may be stronger than futures. Li Boya judged that there is a driving force to expand the basis in the later period. From the point of view of valuation, the current snail basis is all around zero, and the safety margin for the expansion of the basis is better. Traders can avoid the risk caused by price fluctuations by selling value, that is, buying spot goods while selling the same amount on the disk, or selling the risk part of the existing stock that exceeds the standing stock in the market.

In addition, Li Boya believes that for steel mills, the current actual production profit in East China is about 400 yuan / ton, while the northeast region only has a profit of 100 RMB200 / ton, but the disk profit has reached 1000 yuan / ton, exceeding the high point in 2019 and higher than the average profit in 2018. The huge difference between the disk profit and the actual production profit mainly comes from the discount of raw materials, especially the ore end, but the reality is that the steel mills still have no large-scale production reduction action, and the demand for raw materials is still guaranteed. however, the market is trading "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" as a former "supply-side reform", and the raw material plate is relatively weak relative to spot and finished materials.

Li Boya said that although he has strong confidence in the strength of the long-term policy, even during the period of "supply-side reform", the sustained high profits of the industry as a whole were not given until more than a year after the formal landing of the policy, and the formation of the gap between supply and demand still takes time to accumulate. At present, from the spirit of the two sessions, the specific policy has not yet been landed, and it is unreasonable to give 2110 contracts the same high profit as 2018. Then, under the background of pullback pressure in mid-to-late March, steel mills can lock in and preserve their profits by shorting virtual profits on the trend layout of 2110 contracts in advance.