Russia has just asked for an increase in production to "spoil" the OPEC+ meeting! The new year got off to a "hot" start, with strong commodity performance and coke up more than 4% on the first trading day.

The OPEC+ meeting was held at 11:00 on the evening of January 4 in Beijing. Most OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, support maintaining current production in February and oppose an increase in February, but Russia has asked for an increase. OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on Monday and talks will continue on Tuesday. Affected by the news, international oil prices closed down. By the close of trading in the early hours of this morning, the S & P 500 index of US stocks was down 1.48%, the European Stoxx50 index was up 0.29%, the dollar index was down 0.39%, WTI crude oil was down 2.21%, Brent crude oil was down 2.01%, Lun copper was up 1.32%, gold was up 2.37%, American beans were up 0.23%, American soybean meal was down 1.28%, American soybean oil was down 0.75%, American sugar was up 1.68%, and American cotton was up 1.09%. The CRB index fell 0.27%. The BDI index rose 0.59 per cent.

Most of the domestic commodity futures closed higher at night, led by black and chemical industries. Iron ore rose 3.75 per cent, staple fiber, coking coal and styrene all rose more than 3 per cent, and coke rose nearly 2.5 per cent, including EG, PVC, PP, thread, plastic, cotton and sugar. Corn, rapeseed meal and starch dropped slightly.

Russia asks to increase production "spoil yellow" OPEC+ meeting

The OPEC+ meeting was held at 11:00 on the evening of January 4 in Beijing. Most OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, support maintaining current production in February and oppose an increase in February, but Russia has asked for an increase. OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on Monday and talks will continue on Tuesday.

In his opening speech at the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on 4 January, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Energy Minister, said that while the novel coronavirus virus epidemic miao was a "very welcome sign" for the oil market, OPCE and its non-member allies must proceed with caution as global demand was still well below early 2020 levels and the new variety of novel coronavirus was "unpredictable".

The Saudi oil minister said the vaccine restored optimism to the oil market and saw the dawn of the market. Despite optimism, caution should be maintained. It is hoped that OPEC will make a comprehensive compensation for insufficient production reduction this year, and will not put our achievements at risk for the sake of immediate illusory benefits. Despite the start of mass vaccination, global oil demand remains uncertain, flexibility must be maintained to respond to market demand, and demand for fuel remains fragile.

Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, said in a report: "We believe that the best strategy OPEC+ can adopt in the current environment is to keep production cuts at current levels." He believes that despite the strong price spreads, the market is still clearly in a fragile state, so if OPEC+ further increases supply, it could lead to a fall in prices.

But Russia and Kazakhstan say the rebound in demand justifies higher production. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Novak reiterated at a closed-door meeting that he hopes OPEC+ will increase production by another 500000 barrels per day next month. However, Novak did not publicly state his position, saying the market was in a "healthier state" and warned of "uncertainty" in the future.

OPEC+ voted in December to cut crude oil production by 500000 b / d from January 1, while member states will vote on whether to cut production by a further 500000 b / d from February. At present, OPEC has cut production by 7.2 million barrels a day.

At present, the market basically believes that OPEC+ will not increase production in February. Energy Aspects said OPEC+ could decide to maintain January production levels in February. Helima Croft, chief commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC, agreed: "as the number of novel coronavirus cases continues to increase and the vaccine launch is slower than expected, we think OPEC+ will choose not to increase production further in February."

The stock market is off to a good start in the new year! The Prev has stood above 3500 points after three years.

New Year's Day after the first trading day, A shares ushered in a good start, the gem index performance is the most eye-catching, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover of more than one trillion yuan. The domestic commodity futures market rose more and fell less, with energy and black sectors leading the rise, with crude oil futures rising more than 5 percent and coke, coking coal, LPG, rubber and other major contracts all up more than 3 percent. Agricultural products plate is relatively weak, however, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil futures in the main contract set a new high in recent years.

"A shares began to show strength in the last two trading days of 2020. The logic of the current stock market rally is economic recovery and technological upgrading. The market generally expects China's economy to rebound strongly in the first quarter of this year." Wang Yang, assistant director of the Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute, told the Futures Daily: "judging from previous years' experience, the overall probability of the stock market rising in the first quarter of each year is relatively high. On the one hand, there are factors such as new construction stimulating, on the other hand, important meetings are held, and the market tends to have room for imagination about future policies."

Jin Hui, a senior analyst at Zhejiang Merchant Futures Stock Index, told Futures Daily that for a long time before the recent surge in the index, market sentiment was somewhat cautious, the market sentiment was repeated, and the money-making effect was also very poor. But since before New Year's Day, market sentiment has been boosted by some good news, and capital sentiment has also improved.

For the A-share future, Wang Yang is still optimistic. He believes that the future policy will not make a sharp U-turn, liquidity will remain reasonable and abundant, A-share short-term should not chase high, even if there is an adjustment in the future, the adjustment will not be very large.

"the expected rally in the first quarter is still expected." Jinhui said that after entering 2021, due to the low base effect in the first quarter of 2020, the economic data in the first quarter of 2021 is expected to be bright, so the market will see a profit-driven rally. As the market expectations of the market are more consistent, therefore, the possibility of early cashing of the market cannot be ruled out. On the specific operation, he suggested that the multiple orders of IF2103 and IC2103 can be configured on every bargain, and the current profit multiple orders can continue to be held. In addition, in view of the recent improvement in capital sentiment in the market and the magnification of trading volume, we should pay attention to the magnification of market volatility while maintaining optimism.

Commodities showed a strong performance on the first day after the festival, with SC crude oil rising more than 5%.

Yesterday, crude oil futures led the rise of the energy plate. Li Wanying, a senior energy analyst at Donghai Futures Research Institute, said that oil prices have been running strongly recently. At the macro level, although the epidemic continued to spread in Europe and the United States, the news of virus mutation once caused market panic, but the vaccine entered the market to a certain extent to ease the market anxiety. On the supply and demand side, the cracking price gap is being repaired, reflecting an improvement in refined oil consumption. In addition, OPEC's recent production cuts are still relatively positive, and this trend is expected to continue until the end of the first quarter. "the current contradiction in the oil market is still a game between the spread of the epidemic and the expectation of effective landing of the vaccine, and oil prices are expected to maintain high oscillations." Li Wanying said.

In terms of polyester varieties, Li Wanying believes that from a fundamental point of view, the order of strength is EG, PF, PTA. According to her, EG, shipping in the Yangtze Estuary has been blocked due to weather reasons since December, which is affected by sudden factors of imports and installations. at present, supply is tight, demand for replenishment is concentrated, and port inventory continues to decline, and it is necessary to focus on downstream construction after mid-January. In terms of PF, under the premise of low inventory, rising costs, reasonable valuation and no warehouse receipt pressure for the time being, PF is easy to receive financial attention. In terms of TA, its fundamental status quo is more stressful than other varieties. Overall, Li Wanying believes that downstream construction has not worsened in the short term, and the oil price is strong, and there is upward momentum in the plate, but with the passage of time, it is recommended to be cautious and pay attention to the persistence of demand.

It is worth mentioning that LPG prices have risen strongly recently. Li Wanying believes that under the background of strong oil prices, the increase in LPG exceeds market expectations. In addition, some deep processing enterprises in the early stage were required by the early environmental protection emergency response, and the emergency response was lifted during the holiday period. Under the combined action of negative production of deep processing equipment and pre-festival replenishment, the overall demand increased significantly, which also led to the rise of the price of C4 after ether.

The 12th round of gains began, and coke rose by more than 4%.

On the same day, the performance of black commodities was also relatively strong, and coke and coking coal futures rose sharply, of which the main contract of coke futures closed at 2929.5 yuan / ton, up 4.46% from the closing price of the previous trading day, setting a new high. According to Wang Xintong, an analyst at Everbright Futures, the spot price of coke has been adjusted for the 12th round, with mainstream coke enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong and Hebei raising 100 yuan per ton, totaling 700 yuan per ton. From the point of view of supply and demand, the coking plant continues to eliminate production capacity, resulting in a significant decline in coke output. Although the new production capacity has been put into operation one after another, it takes a process from putting into production to stable coke production, during which the coke supply is still tight. In the same period, the operating rate of blast furnace is basically stable. "with the continued loss of production capacity of coke enterprises in the later period, in the case of reduced supply and stable demand, coke futures will oscillate at a high level in the short term." Wang Xintong said.

"the recent high decline in iron ore futures is driven by a combination of policy risks and weaker fundamentals. Dashang has continuously introduced regulation and control measures for iron ore futures, while the China Iron and Steel Association and the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that there are unreasonable factors in the early upside of mineral prices, and the policy risk continues to increase. In addition, the fundamentals of the mining market have also weakened recently, which is directly reflected in the re-accumulation of Hong Kong stocks. " Tu Weihua, a black researcher at Baocheng Futures, told Futures Daily that miners shipped a significant impulse at the end of the year, and the global 19 MTR ore shipments increased significantly for two weeks in a row, with the most obvious increase in Australia, and the subsequent domestic arrival will also pick up. Short-term supply increases significantly. At the same time, although the average daily hot metal output of the sample steel mill remains high, indicating that the terminal consumption is good, the speculative atmosphere is weakened at the high price, and the contraction of timber profits weakens the expectation of ore demand, and the positive effect on the demand side is limited. It is worth noting that the recent steel mill inventory is on the low side, and as the spring approaches its replenishment kinetic energy increases, demand may be released again.

Overall, Tu Weihua believes that the performance of domestic ore demand is OK, and the demand for overseas reproduction and storage is increasing, and the trend of ore demand is difficult to show downward under the internal and external drive, although the miners' shipping impulse has brought about a short-term supply rebound, but it has not reversed the tight balance pattern of the mining market in the medium term, so the deep discount period price should not be overly bearish.

The oil and oil will rise and fall.

In terms of agricultural products, the three major vegetable oil futures fell back after hitting new highs in recent years yesterday. Among them, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil and palm oil all reached new highs in recent years. In terms of oil and fat, on the first trading day of this year, rape oil ranked first among the three major oil increases, with the main contract closing at 9892 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.98%. Soybean oil and palm oil fell back after hitting new highs, rising by more than 1%. In terms of oil, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal reached new highs in recent years on the first trading day of this year, with soybean meal up 1.75% and rapeseed meal up 1.45%.

"there are two factors driving oil prices up recently: one is the seasonal decline in oil stocks, the Spring Festival stock boosts demand, and the other is the global environment of loose liquidity." Huarong Rongda Futures Oil Oil analyst Zhang Yimeng believes that oil and oil prices due to inventory and cost factors, short-term sharp decline is less likely, but there is still the possibility of a small adjustment. Next week, the U. S. farmer report is likely to cut South American soybean production, and there is still room for the oil and oil sector to pull up before the report is released. If the report meets expectations, it is still possible to give up the increase in the short term.