SMM: the gold market has risen sharply this year, but Sunshine Profits analyst Przemyslaw Radomski said gold prices are likely to fall sharply similar to those in 2013.
Radomski points out that the current trend of gold prices is very similar to that of 2011-2013, but much faster than then.
"History often repeats itself, which is the basis of technical analysis. The same is true for technical analysis, such as withdrawal, indicators, cycles, and so on. "
The gold market experienced a sharp fall in 2013.
"it is right to say that gold prices fell at that time, but it is not the whole story, just as it is said that US Treasuries are not small. Gold fell sharply at that time, and before it went down, its trend was quite stable and there would be a small correction. "
Radomski points out that this is the case with gold today.
The gold market fell for three consecutive weeks in November, falling more than $50, the worst month in four years. Radomski believes that the previous September low has become the current resistance area for gold, and the upward correction may end soon.
The long-term trend is that gold prices will recover after the turning point, and in terms of historical trends, Radomski believes that there is also a possibility that gold prices will fall back to the $1600 / oz level.
In addition, MACD showed a strong sell-off signal, the last of which was at the top level in 2011, when the gold market was significantly overbought, with the other side at a similar 2008 top level.
Radomski pointed out that if the gold market repeats the 2008 trend, it could even fall back to the $1450 / oz level. In other words, gold will return to the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci pullback from the upward trend of 2015-2020. This level is also the end of the gold decline in 2013.
Overall, Radomski believes that despite gold's strong performance this year and its recent recovery from the slump, the risk of falling again is very high and will remain bearish in the coming weeks.
