SMM News: according to the data provided by the report "Global Wafer capacity 2020-2024" released by IC insights, the IC production capacity of the following 10nm processes is expected to enter a period of rapid growth in the next few years, and by 2024, the chips of this process will become the largest proportion of the monthly installation capacity of the industry. By the end of 2020, the capacity below 10nm is expected to account for 10% of the total wafer capacity of the IC industry, is expected to exceed 20% for the first time in 2022, and increase to 30% of the global capacity in 2024, as shown in the following figure:
The manufacturing process of the chip is becoming more and more advanced. With the improvement of the precision of IC design and manufacturing, the distance between the circuits that can be carved on the wafer in the modern mass-produced chip is getting shorter and shorter, but the problem is that with the improvement of the chip technology level, the marginal income is decreasing, which makes many chip designers doubt whether the improvement of efficiency can make up for the increase in cost.
The cost of process equipment below 10nm has soared to the point where many IC suppliers cannot afford it. At present, only Samsung, TSMC and Intel can afford wafer factories that are smaller than 10nm process technology.
At the same time, design challenges (such as continuing to reduce the size of DRAM and NAND flash memory cells) and complex logic-based chips (such as ASIC, FPGA and other advanced logic devices) also face challenges brought about by process improvements.
In addition, IC insights's Global Wafer production report 2020-2024 also provides some key data:
By 2020, 48 per cent of all wafer capacity is expected to be less than or equal to 20nm (10.0 per cent of wafer capacity less than 10nm; 38.4 per cent of 10-20nm). Such devices include high-density DRAM and high-density 3D NAND flash memory with equivalent 10nm-level technology, high-performance microprocessors, low-power application processing c2 processors, and advanced ASIC/ ASSP/FPGA devices based on 16x14nm 12pm 10nm, or 7/5nm technology.
South Korea has 66 per cent of production capacity in lower-than-20nm processes, and it still has a much bigger lead than other regions or countries. Given Samsung and SK Hynix's emphasis on high-density DRAM, flash memory and Samsung application processors, it makes sense for the country to have state-of-the-art dedicated wafer capacity.
Because Apple, Huawei and Qualcomm continue to use TSMC's advanced process services, this makes Taiwan's total production capacity less than 20nm process more than 35%. Nevertheless, the 28nm, 45/40nm and 65nm generations continue to create a lot of business for contract manufacturers such as TSMC and UMC.
Most of the capacity smaller than 20nm in mainland China is controlled by companies from other regions, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel and TSMC. Cheung Kong Storage and SMIC are the only mainland Chinese companies that offer less than 20nm process technology.
