SMM News: glass surpasses silicon to become the shortest board in the photovoltaic industry chain in 2021!
There are many interesting points in the photovoltaic market in 2020, in addition to the overwhelming success of single crystals and the debate over 166-182-210 silicon wafers, "price hike" is also a hot topic in the near future.
In this round of vigorous price increases in the second half of this year, all links of the industrial chain have risen, and glass and silicon are undoubtedly the "prettiest" among them. According to the reporter's follow-up understanding, the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass in the market has risen from a low of about 24 yuan this year to the current 30 yuan, and second-and third-line assembly factories and individual small factories even have a transaction price of 33-35 yuan per square meter, an increase of 46%, which is hard to get. It is well known that silicon is the leader in this wave of price increases. In the past two months, the price has jumped from 58 yuan to about 95 yuan, an increase of more than 60%! Obviously, the imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason for this round of price rise, and the price fluctuation has an important impact on the lower reaches of the industrial chain and even terminal demand.
It should be noted that the imbalance between supply and demand is likely to be the norm for some time in the future, and it must be the shortest board of the industrial chain that restricts the development of the industry. In other words, the bottleneck link of the industrial chain is the real constraint of the future industry, and the capacity beyond the bottleneck link is excess capacity. So, which link is the deficiency in the whole industry chain in the following fourth quarter and 2021?
The supply of silicon material is becoming more and more stable and returning to rationality.
In the past few years, the head wafer / battery / module manufacturers have announced huge production expansion plans, according to the current industry existing and expansion capacity, the capacity of each link in next year's capacity has exceeded 200GW, far exceeding the industry forecast of 145GW next year's installed demand, the industry focuses on the silicon material with the highest increase this year.
In fact, with the development over the past decade, China's polysilicon production is now close to 90% of the global output, of which the first echelon, such as New Special Energy, Xinjiang Daquan, Tongwei shares, Oriental Hope, Xiexin / Zhongneng, etc., have a production capacity of 80, 000 tons or even 100000 tons. With higher market prices, overseas capacity such as OCI Malaysia and WACKER Germany have also increased their operating rates. At present, the output of various silicon manufacturers are climbing, and the recent quotations have shown a trend of maintaining stability.
According to the reporter's rough calculation, the global polysilicon output in 2021 will hit another record high. with the existing starting capacity, together with the Jiangsu Zhongneng granular material (54000 tons) and Tongwei Leshan / Baoshan project that will be put into production in the second half of next year, the global polysilicon production capacity in 2021 will exceed 660000 tons, and the actual output will reach about 550000 tons. It is expected that the terminal installed capacity will reach 180,000GW. On the whole, it can fully meet the installation needs of the terminal.
Especially compared with other shortage links such as glass, the output of silicon material in the fourth quarter and 2021 has far exceeded the deficiency, and there is a certain overproduction. We have reason to believe that with the stability of supply, the silicon market and prices will soon return to rationality.
The increasing demand for glass will become the biggest deficiency.
With the rapid improvement of photovoltaic installation, glass as the main auxiliary material, the demand is also increasing rapidly. This year, the application of double-sided components is advancing faster than expected, double-sided double glass has become popular, and the proportion will be further increased in the future. According to various forecasts, the share of double-sided double-glass products will reach 40% next year, which directly leads to a further increase in the demand for glass. According to relevant forecasts, the demand for photovoltaic glass in 2021 is expected to be in the range of 780-8.6 million tons, an increase of about 30 per cent over the overall consumption this year.
While the demand is rising, the leading enterprises in the glass industry are also expanding production. According to the public xing, in 2021, a total of 7600T new furnaces will be ignited and put into production in Follett Vietnam, Jiaxing and Fengyang projects, 4000T new furnaces in Wuhu project, and other glass enterprises, such as the New Fuxing Beihai Project and Armaton / Nanbo Fengyang project will be put into production. It is expected that next year's theoretical glass output will be able to support around 170~180GW.
It should be pointed out that, according to the survey, there is a gap between the final actual output of glass enterprises and the theory, which needs to be determined according to the actual production expansion progress of each company. According to Pvinfolink's recent information, due to the glass production expansion speed is far less than the components, coupled with the market peak season, glass supply will be tight all the way to the end of the year, the price has a clear upward trend. In addition, the rapid development of large-size components, a wide range of component specifications lead to part of the production capacity can not be fully utilized, but also bring difficulties to the supply of glass.
According to the comprehensive evaluation, the glass output in 2021 is expected to be able to support the installed capacity between 150 and 160GW, and the glass supply corresponding to more than 182 large-size and 500W high-power components is particularly tight, and glass has become the largest short board in the industry.
Glass has become a bottleneck, and other capacity is overproduced.
In the short term, the component price fluctuation caused by the rising price of silicon, battery and silver paste has suppressed the outbreak of terminal demand, and some customers choose to wait and see, postpone or even cancel the project. Recently, the prices of components and batteries have also fallen slightly, and the "invisible hand" of the market is gradually transmitting pressure upstream.
Looking forward to 2021, the optimistic end market capacity will be around 150GW. Although the capacity of silicon wafer / battery / module is expanding rapidly, reaching more than 200GW, some production capacity is expected to be forcibly cleared considering the terminal demand and the two links of glass and silicon.
Among them, the tight supply of glass will make all other links surplus. Silicon limited by market terminal demand and glass supply is also likely to lead to poor downstream shipments, prices are expected to fall slowly and eventually reach a new equilibrium point.