[market voice] Black series "gold nine silver ten" becomes "late spring cold" Why?

SMM9 March 21: up to now, the expected "Jinjiu" has not appeared for a long time, iron ore, spiral volume in this month but all the way down. Today, ferrous metals fell sharply again, the main contract for iron ore fell 2.88%, the main thread fell 1.59%, and the hot coil fell 1.37%. Futures prices are at their lowest level in the last two months or so. The market as a whole believes that terminal demand is lower than expected, the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment is limited, overdraft peak season expectations and other factors lead to the black peak season is not prosperous.

Zeng Ning black team said demand recovery was slow and crude steel production reached a record high. The "three red lines" policy has led to restrictions on the financing of housing enterprises, and there is also a shortage of funds in infrastructure. The recovery of demand in the first half of September was slow. At the same time, the average daily output of crude steel reached 3.06 million tons in August, another all-time high. The slow recovery of demand superimposed new highs of supply, putting prices under pressure to adjust.

East China Sea futures Liu Huifeng analysis, the decline in rebar prices since September is mainly due to the peak season demand recovery lower than expected superimposed supply high, from our estimated supply and demand balance sheet, rebar supply and demand gap (demand-supply) has been negative since July, only slightly positive in the second week of September, indicating that the current rebar supply is still in a state of oversupply, prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term. Rebar prices still have some room to fall at present, but they are not pessimistic about the long-term trend. We can pay attention to the changes of rebar inventory in the later stage. Once rebar continues to go to the warehouse, the price may pick up at the bottom. In the short term, it is still dominated by selling short at every high.

Huatai Futures pointed out that steel production remains high, the table needs to be improved but needs to be verified. Overall, the current steel consumption in the traditional peak season, and affected by continued monetary easing, superimposed excavators, cement, cars and other sales data continue to improve, so the overall consumption has a better expectation. However, from the current apparent consumption point of view, the consumption level is high but the performance is mediocre, which does not reach the expected value, and we still have to wait for verification in the later stage. The prices of raw materials, scrap steel, iron ore, coke and other raw materials also showed a downward trend last week, and cost support has become weak. the focus of short-term contradictions is still that consumption does not exceed expectations, while output remains high, superimposed with relatively high inventories, all of which have put greater pressure on steel prices. at present, electric furnaces are on the edge of the break-even line. If steel enterprises still do not reduce production, the contradiction between supply and demand will be further intensified. The short-term downward trend of steel prices is still not over, but due to the impact of cost support and future consumption expectations, the depth of the decline is expected to be limited. In the later stage, we still have to pay attention to whether the consumption logic can be verified.

Maike Futures believes that demand is weak and pre-festival replenishment is supported, and steel price shocks are waiting for new drivers. In terms of timber production, the rebound of thread and hot coil production last week did not continue the trend of production reduction, and the pressure of subsequent removal of storage is still greater, Tangshan strengthens production control efforts on the supply side or slightly suppresses the overall limited; demand side, transaction overall rigid demand procurement, speculative demand release is limited, the table is expected to maintain the overall level of year-on-year this month, and the growth rate is expected to pick up in October. Billet and some varieties of steel prices weakened over the weekend, the current market mentality is still cautious; today's data show that total steel inventory slightly decreased 0.1%, the performance of depots is still poor, building materials ring down 0.66%, hot coil ring down 2.41%; pre-festival terminal may have a small replenishment, speculative demand may be released in stages, to provide support for steel prices, but the logic of weakening in the medium term remains unchanged.

ITC futures said that the steel plate showed signs of stopping falling, but the momentum of the rebound was still insufficient. The watch needs to pick up, the range is not high, to a certain extent, feedback the rigid support of peak season demand. With the steel price adjustment in the short term, we suggest that we should pay attention to two issues: one is that the weighing price below 3600 corresponds to the loss of most steel mills, and the kinetic energy of the continued decline below 3600 can be observed; second, the price adjustment releases the risk of high pressure, and as time approaches the National Day short holiday, the demand for terminal replenishment may be released, thus supporting the fall in prices, so it is not recommended to pursue short blindly in this position.

Cai Yuanqi, an analyst at Guoxin Futures, said that before September, the market expected high demand for steel during the peak season, and the monetary environment was relatively loose, even in the off-season when absolute inventory levels remained high and inventory conditions were not good. The current price center of gravity is still rising steadily. However, due to the failure of expectations, rebar and hot coil futures prices have fallen at a high level since September.

Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, believes that, on the one hand, the growth rate of new real estate construction and infrastructure investment is obviously lower than expected, which has a certain impact on market confidence. On the other hand, with the recent tight monetary policy and increased regulation and control of the property market, the bond market has continued to adjust since May, and the stock market has also fallen continuously recently, affecting the overall mentality of the commodity market.

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