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[SMM analysis] the supply and demand of tin price range fluctuates violently and finds clues about the future trend.
Sep 15,2020 14:35CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM9 March 15: since the beginning of this year, due to the influence of the epidemic and the international situation, the general trend of non-ferrous metals is "V". Shanghai and tin have also suppressed at first and then rose. After a continuous decline in historical poetry in March, it once fell to 103200 yuan / ton, but then continued to recover the lost ground, reaching 154400 yuan / ton on July 28th. Recently, Shanghai tin fluctuated steadily at around 143000 yuan / ton. As of 14:35 today, Shanghai tin main reported 143760 yuan / ton, an one-day decline of 0.2%.

On the supply side, affected by the continued spread of the overseas epidemic, the output of some foreign tin smelters has declined due to the temporary shutdown. For example, the total tin output of Peruvian tin miner Minsur in the second quarter was 4021 tons, compared with 6283 tons in the same period last year, down 36%. In the first half of the year, 9543 tons of tin was produced, down 17% from the same period last year. Indonesia's Timah produced 27833 tons of refined tin in the first half of this year, with sales of 31508 tons, compared with 37700 tons and sales of 31600 tons in the same period last year.

On the supply side in Myanmar, due to the impact of the rainy season, the Manxiang mining area in the WA region of Myanmar collapsed on August 20, seriously affecting mine production, and the rainy season is not over yet, making it difficult to repair the mine. Production in the mine is not expected to resume until at least the end of October. According to SMM analysis, Myanmar tin mine production reduction is expected to last until October, a monthly reduction of about 1000 metal tons. In addition, about 2700 tons of tin were imported in July, which was almost consumed in July and August. The domestic silver mine starts construction, and the tin supply is expected to return to about 600 tons in the normal plant in September. Taken together, it is expected that the tin supply will be reduced by about 2000 tons in September compared with August.

On the demand side, preliminary research shows that the output of the solder industry increased slightly in August compared with July, which is related to the traditional peak season of the industry. The chemical industry is affected by foreign trade, and some enterprises have reduced their production. As solder accounts for a large proportion of downstream tin demand, overall, downstream demand is expected to increase slightly in September and October.

At the macro level, the recent adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework has continued to weaken the dollar and boosted non-ferrous metals, but higher-than-expected corporate activity data and non-farm data have boosted the dollar, leading to a slight pullback in the dollar. non-ferrous metals are generally under pressure. As of 14:00 this afternoon, the dollar index had fallen below the 93 mark and remained firmly within the bearish trend channel since March. Some analysts pointed out that this week's meeting of the Federal Reserve will be the first meeting since Powell announced policy changes. The Fed has increased its tolerance for inflation, in effect promising to keep interest rates low for longer. The updated bitmap is expected to reinforce the message that the current near-zero interest rate policy position is appropriate until 2023, which is predicted to be bad for the dollar.

On the whole, at present, the performance of the demand side of the tin market is still strong, and the supply side is still tight, but the tightening situation will gradually weaken as the supply-side production capacity will resume. In the second half of the year, the macro international situation will become more complex. What other changes will take place in the supply and demand sides of the tin market? How should we look at the next trend of tin prices in the future? SMM held the 2020 (10th) Tin Industry chain Trading Summit on October 29-30 in Shanwei, Guangdong, to discuss with you the future trend of tin market.

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