Nickel spot

Nickel spot: the trend of nickel futures today continues to be under pressure, with the morning market fluctuating to around 115000 yuan / ton, but the further bottom of the nickel price has limited stimulus to the spot market. It is reported that although the inquiry situation in the morning market is OK, the actual hanging order situation is not as good as yesterday. Only some traders can make a deal. In terms of quotation, Russo Nickel to 10 contract quoted-300 to-200 yuan / ton, some holders due to the fall of nickel prices and thus narrowed the discount, but due to sufficient supply in the market, the actual transaction is still around-300 yuan / ton. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 10 contract rose 1700-1800 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is concentrated in rising water 1800 yuan / ton, it is reported that rising water higher to a certain extent curb the willingness to buy, and therefore more wait-and-see near the weekend. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan is 117000 yuan / ton, which is higher than the market price. It is expected that there will be no low-price supply in the afternoon. The price of Nickel Bean is stable, with a quotation of 600 to 400 yuan per ton for 10 contracts. It is reported that there are enquiries in the lower reaches of the morning, but the deal has not been heard yet.

Market analysis

Today's nickel price trend V word, in the afternoon to recover some of the decline, as of today's day close, Shanghai nickel main contract 2011 at 116150 yuan / ton, down 0.33%, once fell to 114730 yuan / ton, the lowest since August 20. SMM believes that macro factors triggered market panic, not only gold and silver and other safe-haven assets were affected, basic metals were also affected. From a fundamental point of view, the peak of stainless steel prices and increased profit pressure are the factors restricting the upward rise of nickel prices, but they are not the decisive factors in the near future. spot nickel prices are strong, and nickel pig iron has little room to fall. There is still a gap between the supply and demand of primary nickel in the third quarter, so the decline in nickel prices may not be a long-term trend. at present, macro sentiment and bears have the upper hand, making it difficult for nickel prices to rebound quickly. It is expected that the near-term nickel price in the current position near the shock consolidation is mainly, or can look forward to later repair.

[SMM's point of view] Shanghai Nickel V-shaped recovery part of the decline is expected to be dominated by the recent shock consolidation of nickel prices.

Stainless steel futures fell at the start of trading today, falling to 14095 yuan / ton at one point, approaching the 14000 mark, but the decline narrowed as it continued to recover lost territory in the afternoon. As of today's daytime close, stainless steel main contract SS2011 14215 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.39%SMM that stainless steel fell for two consecutive weeks, a decline of nearly 1300 yuan / ton, on the one hand, because the early stainless steel prices are at a higher level, the market is expected to rise limited space, early capital profit unwinding, on the other hand macro sentiment on stainless steel pressure. However, at present, the first line of 14100 yuan / ton is close to the current production cost of stainless steel raw materials, and the space to fall under the support of the cost is limited, and after the spot market of stainless steel follows the price adjustment of steel mills, the price is weak and stable, and the decline of stainless steel contract is expected to be limited in the later stage. Follow-up attention to the support of 14000 yuan / ton under stainless steel.

[SMM Analysis] stainless steel contract stops falling and stabilizes and is expected to have a limited decline in the later period.

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