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[SMM Analysis] the domestic and foreign trade market shows a double weak pattern. Copper stocks continued to increase on Wednesday.
Jul 31,2020 15:48CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 31: after entering July, copper consumption off-season effect is obvious, the actual demand is limited, under the background of high copper prices, downstream only maintain rigid demand, social inventory continues to increase. As of Friday, copper stocks in the three places totaled 269400 tons, an increase of 13500 tons from the previous month, recording the fifth consecutive week of growth.

On the other hand, under the support of the tone of overseas economic recovery, LME copper inventories continue to be eliminated, and the relative price of warehouse receipts for write-off remains high. The price of the outer disk is stronger. The internal and external price comparison of copper remains weak, which does not give too many opportunities to import copper. Restricted by market demand, the foreign trade market was quiet in mid-to-late July, and Yangshan copper premium was also under pressure. at present, warehouse receipts were reported at US $77-90 per ton, bills of lading at US $66-80 per ton, and QP for August.

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Traders holding recent arrival goods have repeatedly lowered their quotations in order to close the deal, but there is still a large gap with the psychological expectations of the buyer, and some counter-offers have fallen below the seller's cost line, so the transaction is difficult. Due to the limited supply of goods, the price of the warehouse receipt is higher than that of the bill of lading, and this part of the price difference can hedge part of the storage cost and capital cost. On balance, some traders chose to pull the incoming goods into the bonded warehouse, waiting for the later price comparison opportunity to open, but due to the problem of delayed shipping, some of the goods originally scheduled to arrive in Hong Kong this week were postponed to next week.

Copper inventories in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone fell 2000 tons to 215500 tons on Friday compared with last Friday, showing a slight decline after three consecutive weeks of cumulative growth, mainly due to a relative decrease in inventory volume, which is expected to continue to increase in the future.

Throughout the spot market, this week's market transactions are more wait-and-see, month-end stalemate characteristics are obvious, activity is low. Spot quotations for electrolytic copper in various places are still being adjusted at a low level, among which the discount for electrolytic copper in Guangdong has fallen sharply this week, mainly due to the high inventory in the area.

Companies are relatively well-funded at the beginning of the month, and trading in the spot market is expected to increase slightly next week, but with high inventories, overall weak consumption and relatively high copper prices, it is expected that the spot discount will not rebound much next week.

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