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Dialogue thread | it's all natural.
Jul 27,2020 08:11CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: ambush, cicada's cry is louder, the weather is naturally shrouded in summer heat; the quantity rises, the warehouse increases, the moving average holds up, the price naturally breaks through; you chase, I chase, the quantity shrinks, the price naturally falls again; the potential does not change, your sha falls, the main force sucks, the price naturally stabilizes again. This is the thread price context of the week, which, like the temperature change of nature, reflects the nature of the market in nature, as well as the brilliance and ugliness of nature in human nature.

Thread main force 2010 contract last week interpreted a shadow 68 points, shadow 25 points, entity 26 points of the Zhou Yang line, closed at 3747 points, up 21:00 from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.56%. Trading volume is magnifying and positions are also increasing. Last week's high of 3816 should be the inertia sprint after the integer level of 3800, and then the quantitative decline is also natural. This chart has been following us for a long time, and everything is so natural. But in this process, in fact, they all go around in circles, just like the running water of a small river, in the same direction, but there must be ditches and ridges, there must be times of countercurrent, but they will arrive eventually. This kind of arrival has "fun", it tests the tenacity and withdrawal in human nature, and the hole shows the greed and fear in human nature.

Let's take a look at the changes in our positions last week. The once stubborn short positions in Donghai Futures have gone from more than 70, 000 hands to just over 50, 000 now. The Minmetals Economic and Trade seat jumped from the 14th place to the second place before the peak, and quickly retreated to the eighth place in the final sha fall on Friday. The top three seats of the bulls did not make much move, but the top two short positions, especially the Yongan futures seat, increased by more than 20,000 hands, and the first Guotai Junan seat also increased by nearly 7,000 hands. Based on the relative length of the weekly income, they are still refueling in the "empty". Judging from the top 20, bears have a lead over bulls. The fierce battle at 3800 is still inevitable, and it is natural.

The important points of last week's 15-minute time-sharing panorama were all in our previous plan: the final protection point of the multi-order 3700 has a second leak, but it is absolutely limitless. Those who believe in it plan to do it, and your harvest must be 3780, 3800, because the volume of 3750 points rushes out, the 21-day time-sharing bald positive line, the Japanese line bald positive line, such a multi-cycle resonance, there is nothing wrong with looking at the front line. And our previous article summed up the current macro and spot background also supports it to move forward again. When the apparent logic and internal logic are unified, we should strive for it and dare to layout in advance, especially to carefully identify the quantitative contraction and the increase of the positive line near the 3696 point of the Abscissa line. This opportunity is not fleeting. Because a good position requires the sharpness and responsibility of ordinary traders.

The time-sharing high of 3800 points is obviously not good, and we have already said that even if it breaks through, it will be consolidated, and it is perfectly normal to reduce positions. If you see how many iterations you have experienced on the 3544-point front line, and return to its starting point of 3300 again, it will be a thousand twists and turns. Here reflects the greed of human nature, but also praises the brilliance of human nature: contentment. When the crowd is crowded, its ebb is natural.

When it again sha to 3728 points, the range, the speed, the volume can be released, that is, ordinary retail sha fell to follow up, the main force naturally pulled up. In fact, when you keep in mind that its quarterly line is propping it up, buying on the bargain is right when there is no sign of a break. This is the reason why we continue to be bullish when there is a shooting star on the lunar line, and when we continue to be bullish on the upper 3544 points of the upper dimension of sha under the "stacking contradiction".

Through this sort of carding, all the experiences in the market seem to be in the dark, especially the important points are naturally happening through the change of position capacity, in line with the subtle changes in the current fundamentals, if you are well prepared, you can also take the move naturally and participate in the important turning point of the market with the main force with ease. But the repetition of its process requires you to constantly accumulate a sense of disk and memory in order to have a natural follow-up action.

From the perspective of the daily line structure, it is very obvious that it is still running in the structure of the potential. If it effectively breaks through 3800 points, the height of its next dimension should be 4050 points. But such predictions and encounters also take time to complete. At least in this position, the required consolidation and the coordination of fundamentals and macro aspects can be completed.

Through the current position change, the first position of the protection point of the bulls is set at 3750, the final protection position is near 3700 points of the 20 antenna, and the first position of upward resistance is at 3780 points. The subsequent 3800 points must be guaranteed before they can be broken through. The higher it goes, the more important it is to follow up. Every breakthrough in 30-50-80 must be matched by a full change of hands and the arrival of funds.

In the past week, in terms of news, Sino-US frictions are heating up; in the industry, tighter controls in Tangshan have been extended, but the average operating rate of electric furnaces has rebounded slightly; in the foreign exchange market, the RMB closed down more than 200 points against the US dollar on Friday, hitting a week low, the midpoint also fell slightly to a week low, and A shares fell sharply and northward capital outflows accelerated, all these give some support to the main short sellers this week. This can also be seen from the rebound in the reduction of positions on Friday night. Therefore, the follow-up rise must have the re-joining of position reduction funds in order to ensure its further progress.

The shift between yin and yang keeps the price changing, but it must have a traceable trajectory for every trader to judge. The seemingly disorderly market can be interpreted as a natural thing. Because only in this way, as a trader can continue to practice so that their own trading will occur naturally. Because only nature is beautiful and simple. Come on, every reader, let's try to be natural traders.

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