SMM Network News: medium-and long-term contradiction: in the later stage of the epidemic, the consumption growth brought about by China's economic recovery is still difficult to match the supply growth rate.
Short-term contradictions: recovery of demand in the later stage of overseas epidemics and sustainability of domestic depots.
Our view: aluminum ingot inventory data released yesterday was 702000 tons, down 6000 tons from last Thursday. As time enters July, off-season consumption is gradually reflected, downstream orders are declining, and the operating rate of processing enterprises is weaker than the previous month, but due to the different pace of recovery in different sectors, consumption is in a replacement recovery, resulting in high expectations of off-season consumption and exports. Overseas is in the stage of economic recovery, but under the circumstances of high internal and external ratios, the export increment driven by the improvement of external demand is still limited, and exports are expected to remain low. On the supply side, the new production capacity, mainly in Yunnan, is constantly released. according to the production plan, the capacity increase will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the trend of supply growth will remain unchanged. On the cost side, the rapid rebound in alumina prices in the past two weeks led to the repair of production profits, and some of the production capacity began to resume production, leading to the improvement of the supply shortage pattern and restraining the price upward space. Inventory accumulation has not yet formed a trend to verify that the off-season is not light, so aluminum prices remain high as a whole.
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