2020.7.20

Summary of lead Morning meeting:

Futures market:

Last Friday, Lun lead opened at US $1839.5 / tonne. In Asian session, Lunlun lead fluctuated downwards, reaching a low around US $1830 and entering the European session. Lun lead stabilized and recovered its decline, but at the end of the day, Lun lead dived downwards. it was finally reported at $1813.5 / ton. (bullish)

Last Friday, Shanghai lead opened at 14905 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead weakened rapidly, reaching a low of 17,690 / ton, a technical break, and finally closed at 14720 yuan / ton, down 1.37%. (bullish)

Spot fundamentals:

Last week, the mainstream spot operation was 14900 won 15500 yuan / ton. According to SMM, delivery ended last week, the market short delivery position of more than 30,000 tons, soft position market temporarily came to an end, the smelter quotation also began to expand the water shipment, as of Friday market bulk order (delivery brand) to SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to Pingshui factory, non-delivery discount 200 yuan / ton. In the trade market, due to the large price difference of the 0708 contract, traders basically reported to Gao Shengshui after moving their positions, and the market supply was abundant. As of last Friday, domestic lead ordinary brand lead quoted a price of 100m / ton for 2008 contracts. In the recycled lead market, price shocks have fallen, the prices of waste batteries are firm, and the profits of recycled enterprises have narrowed. As of Friday, the mainstream quotations of recycled refined lead have discounted the average price of SMM1# lead at a discount of RMB 250m / t, while quotations of RMB400m / t in a few areas still exist; on the consumer side, prices are still relatively high, downstream enterprises will not do speculative reserves, and more purchases will be based on just needs.

As of last Friday, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in the five places reached 47700 tons, an increase of 11200 tons over the previous period.

Lead price forecast today:

Lun lead high successive pullback, the upward trend is blocked, short-term focus on the 20-day line support. Shanghai lead high close 5 consecutive overcast, technical breakage, short-term attention to the 40-day line support.

It is expected that the price of lead in SMM1# will drop by 100,000,150 yuan per ton today.