[SMM High-Grade NPI Market Update] Supply side, although smelters still show reluctance to budge on prices, the center of their offers has dropped slightly. Demand side, stainless steel sales remain under pressure, and high-grade NPI prices are being suppressed by downstream margins. Cost side, ore prices have increased to some extent, providing support for high-grade NPI prices. Overall, high-grade NPI prices are under pressure, but downside room is limited.

[SMM High-Grade NPI Market Update] On October 10, the SMM average price for 10-12% high-grade NPI was 953.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), flat MoM from the previous working day. The market sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.28, also flat MoM.

[Brass Billet Operating Rate Forecast for Next Week] With the disruption from the National Day holiday fading, SMM expects the operating rate of the brass billet industry to rebound by 5.9 percentage points WoW to 47.2% next week. However, under the pressure of persistently high copper prices, the overall operating level is expected to remain difficult to recover to pre-holiday conditions, with the industry continuing a moderate operating trend and the rebound strength being limited.

[Brass Billet Market] The brass billet industry is currently facing a situation of "high prices but low volume." Before the holiday, copper prices broke through the high of 83,000 yuan/mt, significantly dampening downstream purchase willingness and leaving enterprises with insufficient motivation for stockpiling. After the holiday, copper prices continued to rise sharply, further intensifying downstream wait-and-see sentiment. New orders are scarce, and many enterprises report that the characteristics of "price without market" are evident.

[SMM High-Grade NPI Market Update] Currently, most enterprises maintain a wait-and-see sentiment. Breaking it down by segment, upstream smelters still show reluctance to budge on prices, but under the influence of market pessimism, the center of their quotations has already declined. Downstream stainless steel mills maintain sufficient raw material inventory; with finished product prices struggling to rise and costs remaining high, most stainless steel mills have kept their high-grade NPI quotations flat MoM. Most traders hold bearish expectations for the future market, with the limited inventory already sold as exports before the holiday. Meanwhile, transaction prices from some traders have seen significant declines, leading to a softening in market sentiment.

[SMM High-Grade NPI Market Update] During the National Day holiday, mainstream enterprises did not engage in large-scale spot order procurement. As the selling price of stainless steel remains difficult to rise, NPI, as a primary raw material, is constrained by stainless steel costs, making further price increases unlikely. Meanwhile, stainless steel inventory has ceased destocking, intensifying enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment. The market awaits consumption and price performance in October, which will provide guidance for high-grade NPI prices.

[SMM Brass Billet Weekly Review] This week (10.3-10.9), the brass billet industry performed weakly overall, with the operating rate of enterprises recording 41.3%, down 7.18 percentage points from before the holiday. The National Day holiday was the main reason, as many enterprises arranged shutdowns and holidays, leading to a slowdown in the production pace. In terms of inventory, the raw material inventory of sample enterprises remained at 4.45 days, while the finished product inventory was 5.99 days. Affected by the rapid surge in copper prices, enterprises generally controlled stockpiling, resulting in an overall contraction in inventory levels compared to the previous period.

Data released by the Korea Automobile Importers & Distributors Association (KAIDA) on Friday showed that 32,834 newly registered imported vehicles were recorded last month, up 32.2% YoY. Tesla ranked first for the third consecutive month, with 9,069 units.

SMM forecasts that the HPM of Indonesia's local ore on the second half of October will slightly increase with an estimated growth of 0.27%. The HMA for the first half of October is expected to be USD 15,142/dmt, increase by USD 40/dmt. SMM forecasts that the benchmark HPM for Indonesia's local ore (MC35%) in the second half of October will be as follows： - HPM for nickel ore with Ni 1.2% grade: USD 15.35/wmt, increase USD 0.04/wmt compared to the first half of October; - HPM for nickel ore with Ni 1.6% grade: USD 26.77/wmt, increase USD 0.07/wmt compared to the first half of October; - HPM for nickel ore with Ni 1.7% grade: USD 30.12/wmt, increase USD 0.08/wmt compared to the first half of October; - HPM for nickel ore with Ni 1.8% grade: USD 33.66/wmt, increase USD 0.09/wmt compared to the first half of October; - HPM for nickel ore with Ni 2.0% grade: USD 41.34/wmt, increase USD 0.11/wmt compared to the first half of October. Overall, the HPM prices for second period of October slightly increased. From nickel ore market perspective, as the new RKAB regulations has been released, along with the start of the submission process, smelter ore purchases have risen in recent weeks amid expectations of reduced imports from the Philippines due to the approaching rainy season. Indonesian nickel ore price continues to face upward potential.

[Tungsten Companies' Long-Term Contract Prices] SMM, October 10: The tax-included unit prices for tungsten raw materials under the long-term contract of a tungsten company in Guangdong for the first half of October 2025 are as follows: Black tungsten concentrate with a grade above 55%: 267,000 yuan per metric ton. White tungsten concentrate with a grade above 55%: 266,000 yuan per metric ton. Ammonium paratungstate: 390,000 yuan per metric ton. Note: The above unit prices include 13% VAT.