[Fast Update on Copper Anode] Operating rates of scrap-derived copper anode producers in China edged down. This week, the operating rates of scrap-derived copper anode producers stood at 64.60%, down 1.08 percentage points MoM. The operating rates are expected to drop by another 0.62 percentage points to 64.06% next week.

SMM Flash: Domestic steel export offers mostly held steady today. With Christmas approaching, both market offers and overseas inquiries were relatively sluggish. Reports from multiple ports indicated that for steel vessels unable to depart before 00:00 on January 1 or currently under operation, an export license must be provided. Additionally, documentation requirements for customs declarations varied across ports, leading to cargo congestion at some harbors. Overall shipping pace was hampered. Further details await notification from customs authorities, and SMM will continue to monitor the situation.

[SMM Hot-Rolled Coil Daily Trading] On December 25, the combined daily trading volume of hot-rolled coils from SMM's four-city (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) sample enterprises totaled 11,620 mt, down 410 mt day-on-day, a decrease of 3.4%.

[SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Continue to Rise on December 25] The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index stood at 105,138 yuan/mt, up 3,854 yuan/mt from the previous working day. Battery-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 97,800-112,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 104,900 yuan/mt, up 3,400 yuan/mt MoM. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 97,500-107,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 102,250 yuan/mt, up 3,400 yuan/mt from the previous working day. Currently, both upstream and downstream players primarily rely on long-term agreements and customer-supplied materials. Amid the sustained sharp increase in spot prices, downstream buyers maintain cautious just-in-time procurement and adjust their purchasing pace based on next month's production schedule. Most upstream lithium chemical plants focus on fulfilling long-term agreements, with few spot orders concluded. Overall trading activity in the spot lithium carbonate market remains limited.

[State Post Bureau: Postal Industry's PV Panel Coverage Area Reaches 4.48 Million m², Ownership of New Energy and Clean Energy Vehicles Exceeds 75,000 Units] The State Post Bureau held a press conference, where relevant officials stated that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, modern information technologies such as artificial intelligence, mobile internet, and cloud computing have reshaped the operational organization models and workflow processes of the express delivery industry, enhancing the momentum for green and low-carbon development. Distribution centers have achieved intelligent scheduling, visual tracking, and information-based management, with accelerated implementation of PV power generation, intelligent sorting, intelligent security checks, and unmanned warehouses, leading to rapid improvements in informatization and intelligence levels. Hydrogen energy and clean energy vehicles have been widely adopted. Currently, the postal industry's PV panel coverage area has reached 4.48 million m², the number of green distribution centers exceeds 1,000, green outlets exceed 12,500, and the ownership of new energy and clean energy vehicles surpasses 75,000 units.

Today, futures prices fluctuated rangebound, with a full-day increase of 0.03%, and the most-traded contract finally closed at 3,280. In terms of the overall spot performance of sheets & plates, price fluctuations were relatively small, and intraday trading was flat. On the news front, the latest update from Bayuquan Port indicated that the arrival window for cargoes requiring certificates at the port has been closed. All steel cargoes subject to certificates cannot be released, which will directly affect the berthing schedule. From a fundamental perspective, the weekly balance data released by SMM today showed that production fluctuated rangebound, while inventory continued to decline, mainly due to a significant drop in social inventory. As the year-end approaches, most traders are actively reducing inventory and maintaining low stock levels, leading to a slowdown in purchasing enthusiasm, hence plant inventory continued to increase. Currently, cost support is in the doldrums, and there is a macro vacuum, so sheets & plates prices are expected to continue consolidating.

On the afternoon of December 25, four leading silicon wafer enterprises jointly raised their quotations significantly, with 183.75 at 1.4 yuan/piece, 210R at 1.5 yuan/piece, and 210N at 1.7 yuan/piece, achieving an average increase of an astonishing 12%. According to SMM analysis, this round of silicon wafer price increases is supported by fundamentals. Recent price hikes in bulk commodity metal products have led to a substantial increase in the non-silicon costs of cell modules, causing the actual transaction center of overall PV main materials to shift upward. Meanwhile, the silicon wafer segment itself maintains healthy inventory levels. Therefore, under conditions of tight supply, the price increase aligns with market expectations, though the actual transaction situation will still depend on downstream acceptance.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract 2602 opened at 21,475 yuan/mt today. After opening, the price first dipped to a low of 21,135 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward. The pace of the rally accelerated after 10 a.m., and the price surged to a high of 21,480 yuan/mt in the afternoon. It experienced a slight pullback toward the close, eventually settling at 21,345 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt or 0.63% from the previous trading day. On the futures market, bulls mainly reduced their positions, and short-term bullish momentum weakened somewhat. In the spot market today, the SMM A00 aluminum price was quoted at 21,980 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the ADC12 price held steady at 21,950 yuan/mt. Although aluminum prices saw a slight correction, secondary aluminum prices remained firm. Currently, raw material supply is tight, and with aluminum and copper prices staying high, aluminum scrap—especially aluminum tense scrap—has followed the uptrend quickly but shown limited response to declines. Enterprise raw material inventory remains at low levels.

[SMM North China Copper Cathode Spot Market] Demand was suppressed by high copper prices during the week, and as year-end approaches, suppliers face increasing pressure. Market tensions continue to intensify, with upstream players offering volume discounts to boost shipments. Spot premium in North China fell sharply to an average discount of 600 yuan/mt, hitting a three-year low.

[SMM Nickel Flash] December 25 — Supply side, supported by some high-priced transactions and cost factors, upstream offers remain firm, providing a floor for high-grade NPI prices. Demand side, some small steel mills have restocked to meet rigid demand, with transaction prices around 920-930 yuan/mtu delivered to the plant, and some traders have also made small purchases. However, mainstream steel mills continue to show no purchase willingness. Overall, the price center of high-grade NPI has returned to above 900 yuan/mtu, but with weak downstream buying interest, sustained upward momentum is expected to be lacking.