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[SMM Weekly Outlook] in Shanghai this week, Xi first suppressed and then Yang was not willing to pick up spot goods downstream.
Jul 18,2020 09:03CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 17: this week, Shanghai tin rose sharply on Monday, reaching 144570 yuan / ton in intraday trading, refreshing this year's all-time high, but as it fell continuously from Tuesday to Thursday, it basically spit out more than half of the rise. as of Friday's day close, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 141200 yuan / ton.

Raw materials market, Myanmar announced on the 14th this week to extend immigration controls, imports of tin mines are expected to be in a relatively tight state this month, superimposed by Myanmar in the rainy season, tin imports this month decreased by 200 Mel 300 tons compared with June. At present, the tin processing fee is still basically stable, due to the shortage of tin mine, there is a partial depression of the processing fee.

SMM's point of view:

This week, the Shanghai tin 2009 contract rose sharply under the influence of the stock market at the beginning of the week, following the annual tin price of 144570 yuan / ton last week. Subsequently, Sino-US trade problems had an impact on domestic investment sentiment, coupled with profit-taking in the stock market, the CSI 300 index fell 336.7 points in a row in 3 days, a cumulative decline of 6.9%, and the metal almost turned green. In the general environment, it is difficult to support tin trees in Shanghai, and it has been overcast for three days. However, the disk and fundamentals have a certain support, three days have not yet fallen below the one-day increase at the beginning of the week. Friday night market high jump, and then first rise and then suppress, the center of gravity moved up. The center of gravity of the day was lower than that of the night, but it was still higher than the opening price of the night. It closed at 141200 yuan / ton, up 1280 yuan / ton, or 0.91%. The turnover was 45045 lots, and the position was 28635 lots, a decrease of 1090 lots. This week Lun Xicheng Xiaoyang line, the physical part of the lower part received a 5-day moving average support. Although there is a downward atmosphere in the entire metal market, since July, the imported tin ore volume has decreased again, the refined tin import window has been closed, the tin supply end has decreased again, and the superimposed Yunnan collection and storage policy has landed, which is expected to provide some support to tin prices. The upper pressure level is expected to be around 144500 yuan / ton.

SMM spot View:

The price of tin spot goods in Shanghai this week rose sharply following the stock market at the beginning of the week. Subsequently, the market went down, and spot prices also fell. On the whole, the spot price is in a high position, the willingness of manufacturers to sell goods is low, and the willingness of traders to receive goods is not very strong due to their own inventory and downstream demand. However, the sharp rise and fall in futures did provide a profit opportunity for traders, and some traders received a small amount of goods and shipped quickly. Friday trading pullback, there is a cloud word for the delivery of smooth discount quotation, but the duration is not long. As for the discount for Shanghai tin 2009 contract, compared with last weekend, there is no big change in Nei Yun tin premium, it is still around 750yuan / ton, some cloud words have changed from flat to small discount, and the small brand discount has been enlarged. Friday's discount is about 1750 yuan / ton.

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