2020.7.15

Summary of lead Morning meeting:

Futures market:

Overnight, Lun lead opened at 1885.5 US dollars / ton, early Lun lead concussion down, giving up yesterday's gains, into the European session, Lun lead remained weak shock, a low of 1843.5 US dollars / ton, and finally closed at 1851 US dollars / ton, down 1.78 per cent. (bullish)

Overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15415 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead fell rapidly, reaching a low of 15310 yuan / ton, then stabilized, and then basically around the time-sharing line, finally reported at 15405 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.29%. As of yesterday, there were only 6870 positions left in 07 contracts, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the previous period increased by 7142 tons to 33098 tons, leaving a shortfall of only about 1000 tons. (bullish)

Spot fundamentals:

The price of Mulun lead in Shanghai market is 50 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2007 contract, and 50 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2007 contract in Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, Tongguan and Yuteng lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, 15550 yuan / ton in Minshan, Henan Province, and 50 yuan / ton in the average price of SMM1# lead. During the period of lead high consolidation, the price quoted by the holder follows the market, but there is almost no inquiry for warehouse receipt goods downstream, just need to still prefer recycled lead or some electrolytic lead factory shipments, the trading market is light. Although the price of lead has been reduced, it remains high on the whole, the production enthusiasm of smelters is not reduced, waste batteries are actively purchased, and the supply of waste batteries is still in a tight state, and the quotations for waste batteries in most areas continued to rise yesterday. In addition, with the high price of reduced lead, the profits of recycled refined lead refineries went up, and the turnover of reduced lead improved. And recycled refined lead to maintain a deep discount, today's average price of SMM1# lead mainstream quotation at 300mur450 yuan / ton, a smelter reported a discount of 500yuan / ton, downstream fear of high careful mining, light trading.

Lead price forecast today:

Lun lead gained support near the 5-day moving average, with no change in the short-term upward trend, focusing on the pace of the epidemic and trade relations between China and the United States. Shanghai lead high narrow range shock for two days, but still did not change the high consolidation situation, short-term attention to the macro trend.

The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to be reduced by 50 yuan per ton today.