SMM: in the early hours of yesterday morning, the Saudi news agency announced that the Saudi-led allies said they had intercepted two ballistic rockets and six drones fired by Houthi forces in Yemen into Saudi Arabia. Yesterday afternoon, Houthi fighters in Yemen said they had attacked and hit a large oil facility in an industrial zone in the southern Saudi city of Gizan as part of a campaign to launch drones and missiles into Saudi Arabia at night. As of press time, the Saudi side has not issued a statement on the matter.
The price of crude oil was not greatly affected. WTI crude oil fell 2.51% last night. Brent crude oil fell 2.15%. At 6 o'clock this morning, WTI crude oil futures opened down 1.15% at US $39.60 per barrel.
U. S. stocks staged a "late dive", with S & P erasing all this year's losses at one point in intraday trading. The Nasdaq posted its biggest decline in two weeks, rising nearly 2% in early trading to a new intraday high. The Dow closed almost flat, while the Nasdaq initially closed down 2.13%. FAANG's top five technology stocks closed lower after all five stocks hit new intraday highs, with Apple and Amazon rising more than 4 per cent at one point. Microsoft and Amazon closed down 3%. Tesla fell more than 3% after SpaceX postponed its planned ANASIS-II launch on July 14, and at one point it soared 16% at the start of the day.
The black group is strong, and the cumulative increase of "Crazy Stone" is more than 50%.
Recently, iron ore futures prices have risen again, breaking through the 800 yuan / ton mark and reaching a new high since October 2019. Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose 4.80% to close at 829 yuan / ton. In fact, since the phased low of 542 yuan / ton in April this year, iron ore disk prices have risen by more than 50%, which can not help but let the market praise is really "crazy stone."
In the view of Liang Haikuan, a medium-term futures analyst at founder, as iron ore prices effectively broke through the 800 yuan / ton mark in the night trading last Friday, a new round of market rally has been certain, and the market entry of incremental funds was obvious yesterday. Mood and expectation have become the main drivers of the current market.
"the rainy season in southern China this year lasts longer than in previous years, and the demand for end-use steel has been more affected by torrential rains, but even so, there is no effective negative feedback on the price of raw materials. Under the condition of continuous accumulation of hot metal, the output of hot metal is still at a high level, and the further reduction of the production of electric furnace plays a protective role in the start-up of blast furnace. With the iron ore demand end weakening expectations in the off-season is constantly falsified, the market began to trade in advance the expectation of terminal steel demand in the peak season. " Liang Haikuan told reporters that under the expectation of strong infrastructure and stable real estate, the demand for steel in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, coupled with the torrential rain this year has caused part of the demand to move backward, and the rush to work downstream is expected to appear again after the return of the peak season. At present, the spot side has begun to show signs of restocking in advance, which can be seen from the recent average daily turnover of steel by mainstream traders. Therefore, under the expectation of high demand, timber prices will strengthen again, the profits of long-process steel mills will also be repaired, and the transmission of iron ore prices on the demand side will gradually transition from negative feedback to positive feedback.
On the supply side, Liang Haikuan said that although there has been a slight improvement in the arrival of foreign mines to Hong Kong recently, they are mostly concentrated in Brazilian mines, which are still in a tight supply pattern for Australian mines, which are in relatively strong demand downstream. And due to the more seasonal overhaul of Australian mines in July and the gradual increase in the proportion of shipments to Japan and South Korea, the structural contradiction between iron ore varieties is difficult to be significantly improved in the short term, and there is still an upward drive to the disk.
In the view of Sheng Wenyu, head of iron and steel building materials research at Jinxin Futures Research Institute, the rise in iron ore is due to the good news of the decrease in shipments from Australia and Brazil the week before last week and the fact that Australian mines have entered the seasonal port inspection season as scheduled. On the other hand, the price of scrap, the alternative resource of iron, is still rising, and the expectation of long process competing for short process profit is strong, indicating that iron ore demand is still expected to have strong toughness.
"however, the rise and fluency of iron ore exceeded my personal expectations because of the recent weakening of the micro fundamentals of iron ore, and the 142 ships waiting to be berthed at the port currently have a large inventory of off-balance sheet ports. future supply will increase significantly after the port resumes unloading efficiency, while last week it is worth noting that steel and blast furnace capacity utilization declined for the first time recently. However, iron ore prices rely on the dual background of the recent upsurge in macro expectations and the fact that futures have always been heavily discounted, ignoring the marginal weakness of micro fundamentals and constantly refreshing new highs. " Sheng Wenyu said that this week, we still need to pay attention to the changes in steel production, the dredging of ship pressure ports and whether steel demand can continue to rise.
In addition, yesterday, under the background of the general rise of the whole black department, the sharp rise of glass futures was also very eye-catching, and even touched the limit at one point in intraday trading. As of the close, the main glass contract rose 3.24% to close at 1591 yuan / ton.
Due to the cold repair of several previous production lines, the supply of glass has been rigidly missing, and the production capacity has only recently returned to the level of the same period last year. Glass is currently in a seasonal off-season, the ultra-high production and sales rate driven by early work demand has gradually stabilized, but the decline in glass manufacturers' inventory last week is a higher-than-expected point, which has once again contributed to the recent surge. However, the supply side of glass is still facing some deterministic increments in the future, and whether the real estate back-end demand can be centrally released still needs to be closely tracked. " Sheng Wenyu said.
Sheng Wenyu said that on the whole, the recent upward trend of industrial products led by iron ore and glass is mainly dominated by macro expectations, and it is possible that after this "hot wind" brought by the stock market, the weight of the market to micro logic will rise, and the market is expected to enter a period of confirming falsification after stabilizing.
The colored plate continues to climb, and the "Dr. Copper" has reached a two-year high.
Under the loose global economic policy, the non-ferrous metal plate continues to climb. Especially represented by "Dr. Copper", there is upward kinetic energy in both macro and micro dimensions. Yesterday, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 4.71% to close at 52880 yuan / ton, a two-year high. In addition, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum rose 2.79% to close at 14730 yuan / ton, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose 2.62% to close at 18030 yuan / ton, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose 2.42% to close at 15460 yuan / ton, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel rose 2.06% to close at 108510 yuan / ton, and the main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 143900 yuan / ton.
Li Xuezhi, head of industrial products at the chaos Tiancheng Research Institute, believes that the rise in copper prices is mainly affected by four factors. The first is the loose policy environment and abundant liquidity. In order to deal with the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy, countries have launched industrial stimulus policies and loose monetary policies to inject extensive liquidity into the market. "Dr. Copper" as a macro variety, the price feedback is more obvious; secondly, the supply-side interference is still continuing. With the spread of the epidemic, the high incidence of Xinguan pneumonia in South America, the main producing area of copper concentrate, and the news of strike from individual copper mines in Chile, the epidemic of pneumonia is unknown in Kazakhstan, supply-side interference persists, and spot TC of concentrate remains low. Chaos Tiancheng Research Institute compiled the epidemic index of the copper industry according to the proportion of supply and demand of copper concentrate and terminal consumer countries, epidemic situation, population factors and so on. The epidemic index shows that since late March, the epidemic index of the copper concentrate end continues to be higher than that of the copper demand country, indicating that the potential impact of the epidemic on the mine side continues to be greater than that on the copper demand side, which strongly supports the rise in copper prices. Third, the demand side at home and abroad has improved. On the domestic side, the demand is strong and resilient, and there are many bright spots: for example, wind power investment rose 45.4% year-on-year from January to May, automobile production rose 22.5% year-on-year, integrated circuit production rose 13.3% year-on-year from January to May, and air-conditioning production of key enterprises rose 20.9% in July compared with the same period last year. Overseas, although the overseas epidemic situation is still grim, but due to economic pressure, many countries are still "bearing heavy load" to restart their economies, and the demand margin is gradually improving. Finally, the global inventory is low, the current global explicit inventory is only about 600000 tons, which is at a historically low level.
"the current approach to delivery, although copper prices rose sharply, the spot still maintained a small rise in water, indicating that the market still has a certain degree of acceptance of the current copper price. In addition, downstream processing enterprises mostly adopt the strategy of fixed production by sales. Judging from the current order situation, the current copper price has limited inhibition on downstream consumption. " Li Xuezhi said that from the current macro mood and supply and demand situation, it still supports the strong continuation of copper prices. The future market needs to pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment, the impact of the development of overseas epidemics on supply and changes in global inventories, and the huge increase in copper prices. We also need to pay close attention to the impact of cashing out of profitable funds on copper prices.
In fact, in this wave of basic metals rising process, due to fundamental differences, copper, aluminum rose by a larger extent, zinc, nickel is relatively small, therefore, the market for zinc, nickel up the mood is relatively strong. In Li Xuezhi's view, the safety factor of zinc in the rising variety is higher. "Last week, it was triggered by the delayed shipment of zinc concentrate from Teke Resources Honggou Mine, and unidentified pneumonia occurred in Kazakhstan, which accounted for a large proportion of zinc concentrate and refined zinc supply. zinc prices rose sharply, in addition, affected by the epidemic, the TC of zinc concentrates in the previous period was tight and maintained at a low level, and smelter profits were on the low side, so there was limited room for zinc prices to fall, and domestic real estate infrastructure was expected to be strong. If you choose to increase the variety, the safety factor of zinc is higher, at present, there is still some room for zinc to rise. In terms of nickel, with the rebound in the shipment of laterite nickel mines in the Philippines, it is estimated that the shortage of laterite nickel mines in the country can be alleviated, and nickel iron in Indonesia has been gradually put into production, but local consumption is limited, and the outflow of nickel in the form of nickel iron has gradually increased. On the supply side, the supply of nickel has increased before October, and if there is no beautiful performance in demand, the price of nickel will be greatly suppressed. Therefore, the price of nickel is expected to rebound to a certain extent, but the rebound is highly limited. " He said.
A shares continue to strengthen with three major futures indexes
In terms of financial futures, the A-share market continued to rise sharply on Monday, ignoring calls from regulators over the weekend, hitting an intraday high since March 2018. Three futures indexes also rose along with the underlying index, with the IC contract leading the rise by 3.05 per cent.
A shares and futures index continue to rise, can it be considered that the overall bull market has arrived? According to Chen Chang, an analyst in the German futures stock index, from a macro point of view, under the background that corporate earnings are expected to improve in the future, but there is uncertainty about the path of recovery, the tone of liquidity easing remains the same, but most likely it will not be any more relaxed than in February, and the potential risks in overseas markets still exist (mainly the epidemic, but also geopolitical games), there is indeed some support for market valuations. However, it is too early to assert that the market is already in a full-scale bull market. "the high probability of the market is at the point of getting out of the end of the bear market and entering the early stage of the bull market. It is expected that the third quarter will still be a structural market dominated by head enterprises, boom industries and future breakthroughs." Chen Chang said.
There is no doubt that the strength of the market since July is closely related to incremental capital, whether it is the turnover of more than one trillion yuan, the frenzied inflow of funds going northward, or the balance of two-and-a-half-year financing that refreshes a four-and-a-half-year high. all indicate that incremental funds have entered the market to boost the market.
"as the incremental funds that promote this round of market rise mainly come from funds and northward funds, the follow-up fund-raising status and northward capital flow will largely determine the future height of the market. As far as the newly issued funds are concerned, to a large extent it depends on the attitude of regulators. Recently, whether it is the reduction of the holdings of the national team attribute funds, or the statements of the CSRC and the CBRC, there are signs of cooling the market. As far as northbound funds are concerned, in the absence of more than expected negative results, as the AH share premium index has reached a high for the year, it is expected that the rate of capital inflows northward in the short term will be slower than that in the first two weeks of July, unless Hong Kong stocks rise sharply or A-share adjustment makes the premium index lower. At present, US stocks have returned to their higher positions since the beginning of the year (the Nasdaq hit a new high). If there is a sharp correction due to the runaway epidemic or rising trade frictions, then the northward capital inflows into A shares are likely to turn into outflows. At that time, we need to guard against the ebb effect of northward capital outflows. " Chen Chang said.
In fact, since the end of March, in order to reduce the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy and alleviate the credit risk and liquidity crisis in the market, the Federal Reserve has continuously released a large amount of liquidity, but at the same time, the case data in the United States are still reaching new highs, which is in sharp contrast to China's active and effective epidemic prevention and control and stable monetary policy. On June 24th, the International Monetary Fund forecast that the global economy will contract by 4.9% in 2020, while China is expected to become the only major economy to maintain growth in 2020.
From an exchange rate point of view, the dollar index has continued to fall since mid-late May, which not only means that the global liquidity crisis in March has been fundamentally reversed. It also shows that the dollar is flowing to emerging markets, represented by China, against the backdrop of the Fed's loose stance. Therefore, we can see that the allocation of foreign capital to the A-share market continued to increase throughout the second quarter, especially since mid-late May, with the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, and the rate of northward capital inflows into A-shares has gradually accelerated. At present, considering the obvious advantages of domestic resumption of work and production, epidemic prevention and control and policy space, the performance-to-price ratio of A-shares is still high relative to other major economies. If later US stocks adjust due to fundamental downward pressure (non-systemic risk), then foreign investors are likely to further increase the allocation of A-shares from a tactical point of view. " Chen Chang said.
In Chen Chang's view, the uncertainty facing A shares in the future mainly comes from overseas, specifically reflected in three aspects: the progress of global epidemic prevention and control, overseas credit exchange rate risks, and potential risks in Sino-US relations. From the perspective of US stocks, the current market is in a delicate tight balance: although the market has been disturbed by the rebound in short-term case data and rising trade frictions, however, the Fed's continued loose posture has supported the market to some extent, so it is not enough to induce investors to take risk aversion for the time being. But if the epidemic repeatedly begins to affect investors' expectations of the pace of economic recovery, or if more frequent Sino-US games threaten the implementation of Sino-US trade agreements, then the possibility of large fluctuations in the US stock market cannot be ruled out. Once the US stock market plummets or the world enters the risk aversion mode, the products of global investment rights and interests have to reduce their positions as a whole from a strategic point of view. The northward funds that have been flowing into and promoting the rise of A-shares in the previous period will then withdraw from the Chinese market (such as February 2018, October 2018, May 2019 and March 2020). At that time, it is necessary to guard against the negative impact of the ebb effect of northward funds on the A-share market.
"in terms of short-term operations, if there is no sudden outbreak of bearish, then the market may show a high level of oscillation or oscillatory upward pattern. However, volatility is likely to remain high, and the possibility of severe oscillations (similar to after February 25, 2019) cannot be ruled out. Next, the market will face events such as SMIC listing and Kechuang board reduction. Investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of these events and mid-year high-level meetings on market micro-liquidity. In terms of market style, we believe that the rise of financial, real estate and other sectors in early July is more reflected in the return of the mean value of style, which does not constitute style switching for the time being. When the weighted blue chip valuation repair cycle is over, consumer technology medicine will once again become the main line of the market. At present, the style after the weight setting up has begun to tilt to the growth side, in addition, considering that the first new stock after the gem reform is expected to arrive around mid-August, the emotional demonstration effect is also conducive to the further expansion of IC/IH price ratio, so it is suggested that the layout of multi-IC empty IH cross-variety arbitrage since July 8 will continue to hold. If the macro factors change in the later stage or there is a sudden negative, then it is necessary to assess the impact of the above factors on the strategy. " Chen Chang said.
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