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The epidemic is out of control! The President of Brazil confirms that the withdrawal of the United States from WHO A shares continues to be hot, and the three major US stock indexes collectively closed lower.
Jul 8,2020 09:04CST
translation
Source:Futures daily
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM Network News: the 19th issue of the Pushan pulpit and the 14th issue of the CF40 Sun Yefang Reading session opened yesterday. Xiao Gang, former chairman of the CSRC, said that the CPC Central Committee has never attached so much importance to the capital market as it is today. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping has made a series of arrangements for the reform and development of China's capital market. In December 2018, the Central Economic work Conference also clearly pointed out that the capital market plays an important role in financial operation, and it is necessary to deepen reform to create a standardized, transparent, open, dynamic and resilient capital market. In April this year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council also issued "opinions on the construction of a more perfect market-oriented allocation system and mechanism of elements". It should be said that the intensity of the reform is unprecedented.

National "stock sentiment" index burst table! Yesterday, A shares continued the hot turnover the day before yesterday, with a turnover of more than 1.7 trillion yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market capitalization of US $10.25 trillion. Accompanied by the hot market, the securities firm APP has been repeatedly exposed problems, and even misunderstood as "brokerage app downtime."

The National Bureau of Statistics will release June CPI data on the 9th. A number of agencies predict that due to the resonant stabilization of food and non-food prices in June, the rapid pullback of CPI is expected to press the pause button, year-on-year or slightly higher. However, due to the peak of the "pig cycle" and no significant upward momentum in non-food end prices, the overall downward trend of CPI remained unchanged in the second half of the year.

Brazilian President Bosonaro, who is close to Trump, has confirmed that he has tested positive for the new crown virus, according to CCTV news. Earlier, a number of Brazilian media reported on the evening of July 6 local time that Brazilian President Bosonaro showed symptoms of suspected new crown pneumonia and had been re-tested for the new crown virus. On the afternoon of the 6th local time, Bosonaro put on a mask and told his supporters in front of the presidential palace in Brasilia that he had just returned from the hospital because he was not feeling well and showed symptoms of new crown pneumonia. He did a lung X-ray in the hospital and re-tested for the new crown virus. He thought everything was fine, and he also asked his supporters not to come near him.

Mike Dwayne, governor of Ohio, said on July 7 local time that the state's health department would issue an order requiring residents of seven counties to wear masks in public places. The order will come into effect at 6: 00 p.m. on July 8. Dwayne said that the "mask order" is mainly aimed at public places, restaurants, bars, jewelry stores and so on. Judge Lena Hidalgo of Harris County, Texas, said she was considering another home quarantine order for the county. Hidalgo said that the mask order can no longer stop the spread of the epidemic, so she is considering re-issuing a home quarantine order. So far, more than 200000 cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed in Texas, and more than 37000 cases have been confirmed in Harris County, where Houston is located. The state government has suspended plans to restart the economy.

The three major u.s. stock indexes collectively closed lower, with the Dow down 1.51%, the Nasdaq down 0.86% and the s & p 26000 down 1.08%. Novax Pharmaceuticals rose 31.62% after the U. S. government provided the company with $1.6 billion to support the development of its new crown pneumonia vaccine. The Chinese stock mushroom street rose 100%, while Xilai Motors rose nearly 15% for six consecutive trading days. European stocks generally closed lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 0.92 per cent to 12616.80, Britain's FTSE 100 down 1.46 per cent at 6194.47 and France's CAC40 down 0.74 per cent at 5043.73.

On July 7, local time, the US Congress officially received a notice from the Trump administration to withdraw from the WHO. Robert Menendez, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Trump had shown "confusion and inconsistency" in his response to the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and that his withdrawal from the WHO "will not protect the lives or interests of the American people. It makes Americans feel sick and leaves the United States isolated."

On July 7, local time, WHO held a regular press conference on new crown pneumonia. Who Director-General Tan Desai said that it took 12 weeks for the global confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia to reach the initial 400000 cases, compared with more than 400000 new cases worldwide over the weekend, and the epidemic is still accelerating and has not yet reached its peak.

The latest figures released by the Saudi Ministry of Health on the afternoon of the 7th local time showed that there were 3392 confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Saudi Arabia in the past 24 hours, and 49 new deaths on the same day. Up to now, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Saudi Arabia has reached 217108, of which 2017 patients have died of serious illness and 154839 have been cured.

The stock index market is overheated in the short term.

Recently, stock index futures have been advancing by leaps and bounds, but yesterday the market was obviously more "tangled". The Shanghai Composite Index gained 3400 points and lost again, causing investors to have some worries about the future. In addition, yesterday's market style was also different from previous trading days, and the Shanghai 50 index, which had a stronger previous performance, did not continue its previous trend yesterday. Analysts warn that investors need to pay attention to the optimistic state of the market, the market is likely to reach a state of overheating in the short term, the risk of callback is increased, to participate in the market rationally, do not blindly chase high.

"after four consecutive trading days, some indicators of the stock index have shown overheating, especially the rare full-contract limit in IH contracts on Monday, and all three futures indexes (except IC2012) have turned to rising water, indicating that the bullish sentiment in the market is too positive." Wang Mengying, an analyst at the South China Futures Stock Index, said that from a technical analysis point of view, after a continuous rally, the stock index has deviated significantly from the EMA, and there was a certain degree of correction yesterday, which is a normal market performance.

It is understood that since last week, the stock index has risen rapidly for some time, with the main contracts of IF, IH and IC up 14.92%, 16.17% and 11.69% respectively. "this time the increase is big and fast, and it is inevitable for investors to disagree on the short-term rhythm. The performance in the disk is the plate rotation, the short-term stock index into oscillation. " Long Aoming, researcher of Baocheng Futures Stock Index, said.

Overall, analysts believe that the recent upside of A-shares is the rotational role of a number of positive factors. Jin Hui, a stock index analyst at the Zhejiang Merchant Futures Research Center, told Futures Daily that in June, both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMI were better than expected to boost corporate profits to the index. The central bank's reduction of the re-loan rediscount rate showed that monetary policy had not turned, and northward funds flowed into the demand-side support index for many days in a row. In addition, the early market is worried about the uncertainty of US stocks, but the recent oscillation of US stocks weakens the uncertainty of the external environment.

Wang Mengying believes that the higher-than-expected PMI indicators disclosed at the end of June have greatly improved market sentiment, and the PMI indicators under the official and Caixin calibre have improved month-on-month at the same time, indicating that the domestic economic recovery is in good shape and boosting market expectations for the macro economy. In terms of policy, on July 3, the CSC announced that it would revise the rules for the implementation of margin Management of re-financing Business (for trial implementation) and the re-financing Business contract to abolish the limit on the proportion of margin withdrawal for the re-financing business of securities companies. Wang Mengying said that the news reflects the attitude of marginal relaxation of financial regulation, and the market believes that this measure is that regulation can be leveraged "on the market" by default, thus exacerbating the enthusiasm of the market.

"reforms such as the registration system have also brought optimism and liquidity drive to the stock market, prompting a make-up rise in financial, real estate, cyclical and other sectors that rose more slowly in the first half of this year." Long Aoming added. In his view, it is too early to tell whether the stock market is entering a bull market. "at present, the repair of corporate profits is insufficient, and although the domestic economy is recovering in an orderly manner, the overseas epidemic situation is getting worse and worse, which will put pressure on China's industrial chain supply and external demand orders, and will continue to affect global demand in the second half of the year." At the same time, although the Federal Reserve is easing indefinitely, China's monetary policy remains firm, he explained. In addition, regulators hope that the stock market will develop steadily for a long time, and the soaring "mad cow" is not what they like to see. For the future, investors also need to pay attention to whether the policy to cool the rapidly rising stock market and the decline in the strength of economic repair.

In terms of funds, according to Wang Mengying, from the comparison of the global stock market, the overall valuation of A shares is relatively low, has a certain relative valuation advantage, and has a strong attraction to foreign capital. After the stock market continued to pick up, domestic funds also began to move. We can see that treasury bond futures continue to fall, and there are clear signs of money moving from the bond market to the stock market. The huge increase will continue to attract new capital, and optimistic market sentiment is prone to self-reinforcement, which will intensify the attraction of capital and continue to push up the stock market. " She said.

In addition, the recent differences in market style have also attracted the attention of investors. Jin Hui mentioned that the recent strength of the Shanghai 50 index is mainly due to the previous market speculation on pharmaceuticals, consumer and other sectors, so after the release of the results forecast, it was found that there was a gap in market expectations for corporate profits. After observing the recent performance forecast, investors found that the valuations of some sectors are already in a very low position, and the recent strong rise in banks, non-bank finance, real estate and so on is due to this logic. Therefore, the Shanghai 50 index and the CSI 300 index, which account for a large proportion of short-term banks and non-bank finance, will be stronger than the CSI 500 index. Jinhui believes that as the valuation of the relevant sectors is still not high, the strength of the follow-up SSE 50 may continue for some time.

Plasticizing "Sister Flowers" rises in turn

In the face of the maintenance period, the plasticizing "sister flower" has been pulling up in turn recently. Zhu Zongkun, a chemical analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, believes that the early macroeconomic data performed well, and the domestic stock market rose sharply for several consecutive days, boosting investment market sentiment. Most of the commodity markets performed better with the rise. Among them, the chemical sector PVC led the rise, PP, PE followed up, funds once again favored PP. Due to the positive basis of PP while inventory is low, strong reality has not changed the intention to pull up. However, the capital market transactions should still beware of the decline after the funds leave the market, short-term can buy bargain, need to pay special attention to capital trends, the actual spot transactions. " Zhu Zongkun said.

From a fundamental point of view, according to Zhu Zhantian, a senior chemical researcher at the Zhejiang Merchant Futures Research Center, the overhaul loss of the plastic plant in July decreased slightly by 57000 tons compared with June, but the overhaul volume still reached about 230000 tons, and the overall domestic end supply pressure was not great. From the inventory dimension, the port linear inventory is not as low as last year, low-pressure and low-pressure inventory remains low, less than 50% of last year, the port inventory is at the same period low within three years, and the import supply increases from June to August, but the cargo supply of Iranian Air China has not docked for a long time. It is difficult for short-term ports to accumulate large quantities of goods. Downstream demand, the freezing point has passed, agricultural film, packaging film, plastic hollow products start to rebound, demand support has been strengthened, plastic futures prices in the favorable trend of supply and demand is relatively strong. In Zhu Zhantian's view, the plastic supply end is in a period of centralized maintenance, the supply pressure is small in July, the import window is closed, and the late arrival pressure is small, which still maintains a strong judgment in the near future.

Zhu Zhantian, PP, said that the maintenance volume of the plant in July decreased slightly by 30, 000 to 40, 000 tons compared with June, involving an overhaul capacity of 4.69 million tons, and the volume of overhaul was still large. At the same time, considering that it will take time to release the capacity of the new device, the overall supply pressure is relatively small in July, and the price of the PP dollar may continue to be strong in the short term, market confidence is repaired, and risk appetite increases. The PP import window remained closed as a whole, the import pressure decreased in the later stage, and the base difference was maintained at the high level of 250 won 300 yuan / ton, which provided strong support to the disk surface. For the later period, Zhu Zhantian said that the supply side of PP rebounded, but the wire drawing production decreased, the standard pressure was still small, and the base difference was maintained at the level of 250 won 300 yuan / ton. In July, we should pay attention to the downstream demand and the situation of goods in circulation, and it is suggested that we should judge the neutrality of PP temporarily.

For PVC futures rebounded from 6060 points to 6600 points during the day yesterday, Zhu Zongkun also believes that "capital is an important factor." "Today, the market is expected to pull up against the market. Recently, after breaking the 3000-point mark and pressing down, the Shanghai Composite Index hit an intraday high of 3,407 points. Investor sentiment is in a state of continuous warming, and the continued strength of the real estate sector has led to a sharp rise in real estate-based commodities." He explained that the current rise in futures is greatly suppressed by the medium-and long-term trend line near 6600 points, but from the financial level, there are no obvious signs of funds leaving the market in the near future. if the market strongly breaks through the trend line of 6600 points, it will be suppressed from the flag-shaped breakthrough above the 7000-point mark.

There was a pullback in PTA yesterday, which Zhu Zhantian believes is mainly due to signs of production reduction in some polyester factories. According to the statistics of the information website, up to now, the production capacity of the production reduction has reached 834000 tons, and the demand for PTA has weakened month-on-month. In addition, PTA's own supply is still abundant, start to maintain a high level, profit performance is better, plant maintenance have been postponed, the pattern of excess supply and demand is difficult to change, PTA futures prices are still difficult to rise.

Iron ore prices continue to rise

On Tuesday, iron ore futures continued their previous gains. Tu Weihua, an iron ore researcher at Baocheng Futures, believes that the recent market atmosphere is optimistic, and the rise in the domestic stock market has also boosted the prices of industrial products. At the same time, the strengthening of steel futures prices to ease the contraction of ore demand expectations, jointly promote the pace of iron ore rise.

Specifically, looking at the fundamentals, South China Futures Metal analyst Zheng Jingyang told reporters that in terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory of steel mills is low and the demand for iron ore remains rigid. At present, the profits of steel mills are low, and the superimposed Tangshan production control measures have been extended. Hot metal output is expected to continue to decline slightly this week, but the iron ore inventory level of steel mills has been low, and the demand for iron ore for steel mills to maintain production remains relatively rigid.

"at the same time, the high position of the iron ore supply side is weakening." Zheng Jingyang said that this week Australia and Pakistan shipments dropped sharply compared with the previous month, Australian mines entered the maintenance period, shipments ushered in the seasonal off-season, shipments fell back from the previous high, of which there was a large reduction in shipments to China. Month-on-month shipments in Brazil have declined, and as the current epidemic in Brazil has not been effectively alleviated, although Vale has maintained its previous annual shipping target unchanged, late shipments still need to be closely observed. In addition, although the total amount of port inventory is still mainly increasing this week, from a sub-regional point of view, the northern region is dominated by accumulated storage, while in the southern region, due to the reduction in arrival to the port, inventory has declined in the case of little fluctuation in the volume of output.

In Zheng Jingyang's view, such a rising market will not have a stable sustainability. He said whether steel mills' demand for iron ore will be weakened by the off-season of steel in the short term. It is the rainy season in the south, the continuous heavy rain, the apparent demand for finished products continues to decline, the arrival of superimposed high temperature weather, the finished products ushered in the off-season, as well as the current decline in steel mill profits and the extension of production control measures in Tangshan, the production demand of steel mills is expected to weaken, resulting in a weakening demand for iron ore. From the supply side, Australia's two major mines have announced measures to ensure stable shipments throughout the year. Brazilian shipments are still a factor of concern at present. If Brazil can meet the annual target, shipments will be accelerated at a later stage to make up for the previous low shipments. Iron ore fundamentals show a marginal weakening trend, and the basis continues to narrow, the short-term may limit the increase of iron ore.

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