[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Light trading in nickel spot market high nickel pig iron prices still have downside risks

Judgment of nickel price: with the arrival of the off-season downstream of stainless steel from July to August, domestic demand is poor and lack of obvious benefits, and the industry is generally pessimistic about the late market, but in the short term, nickel price is still dominated by macro sentiment and technical aspects, showing a concussive trend. Macroscopically, with the policy support and input of various countries, the performance of many economic data can be or marginal improved. The potential negative side is mainly worried about the second resurgence of the epidemic and geopolitical factors. The fundamentals are slightly negative but mostly expected events, the short-term market guidance is not prominent, stainless steel profits are poor and the late supply of Indonesian nickel pig iron continues to increase, under the influence of this recent nickel pig iron market shows a slight weakening trend, the lower support is mainly maintained by high-priced nickel mines. Nickel spot trading is still poor, Jinchuan nickel rising water improvement is related to the arrival rhythm of manufacturers, it is expected that the short-term discount will also remain low.

1, July 1st SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quoted price 102200Mel 103700 yuan / ton, nickel futures around the 20-day moving average narrow shock adjustment, as today is the last trading day in June, many enterprises mid-year accounts, so the spot market performance is relatively light, trading volume is not as good as yesterday. In terms of discount, Russo Nickel has a contract with Shanghai Nickel 2008 with a price tag of 500 RMB400 / ton. As the import window continues to close, most of the first-hand imports have been transferred, so there are few low-price quotations in the market, so the Russo nickel discount has narrowed. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract quoted rising water 800mur900 yuan / ton. As many traders began to receive goods from Gansu after the festival, and many supplies are still in transit, the spot in Shanghai is tight, and Jinchuan nickel water has been raised immediately. There is a certain circulation between intra-day traders, and more wait-and-see in the lower reaches. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 103500 yuan / ton in Shanghai and 103050 yuan / ton in Gansu. Morning traders have an appropriate amount of goods in Gansu. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract quotation at a discount of 1400 won 1300 yuan / ton, it is reported that there is no deal today.

2. On July 1st, the ex-factory price of SMM high nickel pig iron is 960 won 965 yuan per nickel point (including factory tax), which is the same as the average price of the previous trading day. Trading in the high-nickel pig iron market is light today, and there are no inquiry quotations from mainstream stainless steel factories. Most of the prices between buyers and sellers are near the break-even balance, and the price game is strong, but under the suppression of Indonesian nickel-iron costs, it is difficult for domestic iron mills to push up prices. Short-term high-nickel pig iron prices still have downside risks.

3. On July 1, the spot price of stainless steel in Wuxi was generally flat, with 304 cold rolling at 13300 Mel 13500 yuan / ton and hot rolling newspaper range at 12850 Mel 12950 yuan / ton. Traders generally reflect that due to the influence of the traditional off-season, the current trading atmosphere in the stainless steel market is general. Qingshan Steel works this week opened the August futures price, the futures order is not active, at the beginning of the month, traders hold a wait-and-see mentality.