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[SMM thread] the supply end is still adding code to make it more difficult to remove the social database at a high speed.
May 14,2020 21:11CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

This week, the country's total inventory of building materials was 11.897 million tons, a month-on-month rate of-8.7 percent, an acceleration of 2.4 percent, + 46.4 percent from the same period of the Gregorian calendar last year.

In this period, the national inventory of building materials continued to decline, the rate of decline is significantly larger than the previous period, mainly due to the narrow decline in inventory in the previous period, on a lower basis, on the basis of the hot shipment situation in various parts of the country after May Day, so the decline in inventory in this period is considerable.

Table 1: thread inventory


Source: SMM

Table 2: comparison of thread inventory prices from 2018 to 2020


Note: due to the epidemic factors since 2020, due to the different opening times in different places, there is a certain error in the actual spot average price; the time dimension is the Gregorian calendar date.

Source: SMM



The inventory in the plant was 3.388 million tons, down 432100 tons from the previous month, or-11.3% from the previous month, an increase of 3.6 percentage points, or + 125.51% from the same period last year.

In this phase, the factory warehouse is still being removed at a faster rate than the social library. While the output continues to rise, the inventory in the plant is still rapidly eliminated. In addition to benefiting from the replenishment demand of the post-holiday terminal, while the output of the steel plant is increasing, but the mentality is still cautious, accelerating the transfer of the plant warehouse to the social warehouse is also an important reason. According to SMM research and statistics, as of May 11, the national blast furnace operating rate rose 2% compared with the previous month. At the same time, the planned output of sample blast furnace steel mills in May also rose sharply by 15.2%. Long process steel mills have a strong willingness to put on the market.

Figure 1: trend of Thread Factory Library from 2016 to present


Source: SMM


Social inventory was 8.509 million tons, down 702000 tons from the previous month, or-7.6 percent from the previous month, an increase of 1.9 percentage points, or + 42.0 percent from the same period last year.

This issue of the social library accelerated to the library. Last Friday, the terminal has the demand for centralized replenishment, the trend of superimposed snails is gratifying, and transactions are hot all over the country, so even if the volume of shipments this week is general and the pressure on the supply end is large, the social base is still stable at the same time.

Fig. 1: a list of the trend of thread social bank from 2016 to the present

Source: SMM



Next week, production is expected to have room to explore, although the space is already limited, but steel mills continue to increase the pressure on their own factory warehouse, is expected to continue to be as strong as this week to put into the market, the rapid removal of social libraries is more difficult.

weekly review

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