[SMM Hot Volume] is the price of hot volume 05 contract delivery concentrated in East China facing a crisis?

SMM Steel May 13, near the hot volume 05 contract delivery day, some of the steel mill resources involved in delivery gradually into storage. According to SMM, the total delivery volume of the steel mill is about 220000 tons. Of these, Shagang delivered 150000 tons at Jiulong Ku, 20, 000 tons at Huilong Port, and Angang delivered 50, 000 tons at Huilong Port.

According to SMM analysis, although the delivery is concentrated in East China, short-term spot prices in the region caused some pressure, but do not worry too much about the spot prices of hot rolls in the later stage. Mainly because,

First: the market has responded to this delivery in advance, from the current spot price of hot rolls in East China, the spot prices of hot rolls in several markets in the region are on the low side. In particular, the Shanghai market, recently in the lowest level in the country, as of today, hot volume transaction price of about 3410 yuan / ton. Therefore, even the impact of delivery on the later stage of the market is relatively limited.

Second: recently, Shanghai, Ningbo, Wuxi and other markets continue to reduce the warehouse, the overall inventory pressure gradually alleviated, to support the spot price. According to SMM, this week, Shanghai stocks 562600 tons, month-on-month-51600 tons; Ningbo stocks 245200 tons, month-on-month-30300 tons; Wuxi stocks 79300 tons, month-on-month-12100 tons.

Overall, the impact of the delivery on the late spot price in East China is relatively limited, and there is no need to worry too much. It is expected that there is still room for an upward increase in spot prices in the market, supported by continued low arrivals and the release of demand.