SMM5 March 7: according to SMM research, South Africa's Transport Minister Fikile Mbalula has issued regulations in response to the President's announcement on May 2, South Africa time, and lowered the transport system alert to level 4.
1) in terms of railways, the whole country will allow the full restoration of freight railways;
2) in the case of maritime transport, the transport of goods from the seaport to the warehouse or final destination will be allowed in accordance with the existing rules. Only vessels carrying cargo can call at South African ports, and the ban on passenger ships and cruise ships remains in force;
3) in the area of cross-border transport, goods will be allowed to cross the South African land border, but cross-border road passengers will still be prohibited.
At present, it is understood that the state of the South African port is that in the early April, when the country was closed and the number of motor vehicles decreased, a large number of materials were piled up in the port, and the efficiency of transportation was still low, which occupied the port storage resources. At present, mineral resources are transported to the port for the first round of queuing and the second round for departure, and the transport efficiency is very low. According to SMM customer feedback, we are not sure if we will be able to leave port on time when we inform you of the shipping date around May 10. Today, there is also feedback from customers that the scheduled shipping date for May 12 has been postponed to May 20.
To sum up, the uncertainty of cobalt raw material import is still large, or delay the downward trend of domestic cobalt products. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in Africa is unknown, it is reported that the transport channel in Port Elizabeth, South Africa has been temporarily closed, mainly due to the diagnosis of a new crown case, due to the crossing of land transport, it is uncertain whether the transportation of cobalt raw materials will be affected. On the other hand, a large number of materials are waiting to be issued in the port, the port manpower and ship power are insufficient, the efficiency is still low, the departure time of raw materials is uncertain, and some domestic smelters may face the problem of shortage of raw materials in early June, or plan to adjust the operating rate in late May. SMM will keep an eye on cobalt raw materials.
This week the downstream purchase inquiry order gradually increases, but the cobalt salt, the cobalt oxide and so on the price stalemate, the temporary purchase will is temporarily low. According to the analysis of the situation:
The main results are as follows: 1) Cobalt raw materials leave port one after another after May 10, and arrive at domestic smelters one after another in the middle and early June, the impact of cobalt raw material end shortage is weakened, considering that some manufacturers need cash to purchase cobalt raw materials, cobalt salt, cobalt oxide and other prices may have a small drop in price;
2) the shipping date of cobalt raw materials will continue to be delayed, or even postponed to the end of May, and some domestic manufacturers will face the problem of raw material shortage in June, so as to start or lower the operating rate in late May, reduce supply, and support prices such as cobalt salt and cobalt tetroxide. Prices may continue to stalemate.
SMM cobalt lithium new energy research team
Hu Yan 021-51666809
Qin Jingjing 021-51666828
Mei Wangqin 021-51666759
Huo Yuan 021-51666898