SMM4 27 Zinc Morning meeting: the United States slows down the pace of buying treasury bonds Yunnan commercial reserves boost zinc prices
Zinc Morning meeting: macro aspect: the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world has been close to 2.95 million. The new deaths of novel coronavirus in Italy, France and Spain have dropped to the lowest in more than a month, and the number of new deaths in the United Kingdom and New York State has been the lowest since the end of March. Italy will gradually lift the epidemic prevention blockade from May 4, and Spain and France are also considering similar measures. The British Prime Minister returned to the Downing Street Prime Minister's Office on Sunday after recovering from novel coronavirus's infection, ready to return to the helm. Johnson is likely to announce plans to ease the blockade as early as this week, according to the Daily Telegraph. The blockade is expected to be relaxed before the May 7 deadline. The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting today, or discuss unlimited purchases of government bonds, and this week will usher in decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which economists expect to announce an expansion of bond purchases as soon as Thursday. Friday economic data: U.S. durable goods orders fell the most since 2014 in March, while retail sales in the UK fell the most since records began in March. Saudi Arabia has begun to cut oil production, earlier than the implementation date of the May 1 production reduction agreed by OPEC+. China's Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a notice a few days ago, saying that in order to further support inclusive financial services for small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and farmers, the implementation period of preferential tax policies on inclusive finance will be extended to December 31, 2023.
Fundamentals: last Friday spot review: traders actively shipped downstream transactions flat Shanghai: Shanghai Zinc 2005 contract shock uplink, the morning market closed at 15835 yuan / ton. The smelter shipped normally, and the long order entered the closing stage within the month, and the trading activity in the market was lower than that of yesterday. Domestic water rose 170-180 yuan / ton in the morning market, and it was difficult for the high price to be sold. Shuangyan's quotation was on the high side due to tight circulation, and there was also a deal at about 210 yuan / ton. Entering the second trading session, the market quotation was reduced by about 10 yuan / ton, Huize water was quoted at 180-190 yuan / ton, and Shuangyan's quotation remained high. I heard that it had been reported to rise to 240 yuan / ton. Near the weekend, the downstream entered the market to make a slight inquiry and purchase in preparation for the weekend, and the overall turnover during the day was roughly the same as that of yesterday.
Ningbo: the supply of goods in the wave market continues to be tight. In the first session of the morning, traders continued to quote yesterday's quotation. Huize reported that the water rose 230 yuan / ton for the May contract, while Kirin, Hualian and Tiefeng reported about 220 yuan / ton for the May contract. But the transaction is relatively general. Mainly due to the lower rising water in Shanghai today, due to tight supply in Ningbo market, traders are more willing to raise prices, superimposed follow-up high speed may resume charges, and some traders control the pace of delivery. In the follow-up, some Guangdong goods are transferred to Ningbo and may arrive one after another next week. Overall, today's downstream purchase intention is poor, the overall transaction situation is basically the same as yesterday, more light.
Guangdong: in the first trading session, the holder mainly shipped the goods at a positive price, with little willingness to make a concession, the basic net price of the market floated and closed the deal, the trader mainly harvested according to the order, and the market made a small number of transactions. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 80-90 tons of water for the Shanghai zinc contract in June. In the second trading session, the shipments of market holders increased, but the overall quotation was higher, traders received goods at depressed prices, and less on demand downstream, so it was difficult to boost the transaction, and the overall market transaction was general. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 80-90 yuan / ton for the June contract.
Tianjin: today, Shanghai zinc rose low, and the spot market raised the discount quotation, which is relatively unified. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 300 yuan / ton for the 05 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 360 yuan / ton for the 05 contract. Chihong has no quotation for the time being. The high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 400 yuan / ton for the May contract. Today, zinc prices rose low, the spot market discount rose slightly, and traders shipped fewer goods, indicating that the spot market is relatively tight. Next week, Guangdong zinc ingots will be sent to Tianjin to superimpose imports of zinc, which will ease the pressure of spot shortage. Downstream, it still maintains rigid demand to buy goods. On the whole, today's transaction is the same as that of yesterday.
Inventory: as of April 24, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Seven places was 246500 tons, down 25700 tons from April 17 and 19100 tons from April 20. The reduction of warehousing in Shanghai and Tianjin area is relatively limited this week. The downstream enterprises in Shanghai area just need to buy and maintain the normal outflow of warehousing, and the arrival restriction in Tianjin area affects the total amount of warehousing. Guangdong contributed mainly to the decline in inventories. It is reported that due to the widening spot price spread of zinc ingots from Guangdong to East China, as well as freight concessions driven by the decline in crude oil, some sources of goods have been transferred to East China and North China, and are still on the way. It is expected to arrive at downstream enterprises or warehouses in North and East China next week. Overall, inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin fell by 22800 tons, while inventories in seven places nationwide fell by 25700 tons.
Bonded area inventory: 76100 tons of zinc ingots in Shanghai bonded area as of April 24, down 300 tons from last week. It is understood that this week, with the continuous repair of import prices, the import window opened to a slight profit, part of the bonded area zinc ingots into the domestic market led to a small drop in inventory. Follow-up attention to the risk of import zinc ingots shipment caused by the extension of the ban time affected by the epidemic in other countries.
Zinc price: last Friday, Lun Zinc recorded a small positive line, the upper Brin Road middle rail and 20 lines of resistance. Lme stocks fell 600 tonnes, or 0.60 per cent, to 99475 tonnes on Friday, while LME inventories fell slightly to remain high. The full inflection point of the overseas epidemic has not yet arrived. Peru has extended the ban on mine production as a result of the epidemic, and the reduction of overseas minerals has increased again, boosting the sentiment of the market bulls, and the market will tend to shake up the market in the short term. On the domestic side, consumption is still improving, the pace of storage is expected to continue, and the weekend out of the good harvest and storage, will further boost market confidence.
Today is expected: Lun zinc price is expected to operate in the range of US $1870,1920 / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract or run in 15700-16200 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose 410 yuan / ton.