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[SMM Analysis] Tesla's production and sales are rising rapidly, and the domestic new energy sales are likely to be more intense.
Apr 24,2020 15:38CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM: April 10, the China Automobile Association released March new energy vehicle sales figures. According to the data, the production and sale of new energy vehicles (excluding Tesla) completed 50000 and 53000 respectively in March 2020, down 56.9 per cent and 53.2 per cent respectively. In this sentence, we found a different place than in the past. After the data came out, the China Automobile Association unexpectedly excluded Tesla. What is the reason for the China Automobile Association to "isolate" Tesla's data when the epidemic situation in the country has improved?.

According to the China Automobile Association press conference learned that due to the inability to verify the authenticity of the Tesla data, the China Automobile Association released a new energy vehicle production and marketing data does not include Tesla. Then the market became curious about Tesla's data.

However, after Tesla announced sales in March, it really surprised the market. Tesla sold more than 10,000 in March, second only to domestic leader BYD, or even three times and more times the number of such new forces as Weilai. Inevitably, the market is a little worried.

Due to Tesla's advantages in the same class of cars, such as price, endurance and so on, coupled with Tesla's existing technology, Tesla produced 16000 domestic model3 units at its factory in Shanghai in the first quarter alone. Among them, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in January, coupled with the first sale of domestic Tesla model3 after New year's Day, Tesla recorded 3653 sales in January. Tesla sold 3958 model3 vehicles in February. Despite the impact of the outbreak in February, Tesla sold a little more in February than in January. The market gradually picked up in March and consumption restrictions were relaxed. Tesla sold 11280 model3 models in March.

In January 2020, BYD won the top spot in new energy vehicle sales, totaling 7238, down 77.3 per cent from a year earlier, according to head company BYD. BYD sold 2787 new energy vehicles in February. In February, sales of new energy vehicles were low, with only four companies, a few hundred more, and 11763 in March, with only a few hundred miles more than Tesla. Sales of Tesla's home-made model 3 are growing rapidly, like a lion catching up with domestic companies, some of which have even been "eaten". Given that Tesla recently released a long-running version of the domestic model3 (range 668km), some consumers who are hesitant about the insufficient range of electric cars may consider a long-term version, which also seems to be a key point for Tesla's continued sales growth.

Although Tesla's sales in the domestic market are rising, domestic carmakers have not given up. Recently, BYD released a new energy model, Biadihan, as well as a more efficient battery "blade" battery, benefiting from the advantages of "blade" batteries, allowing Han to directly target the long-term version of the domestic model3 in terms of price and range. According to market speculation, Han's starting price is expected to be 290000. Power, BYD Han EV will provide single motor two-wheel drive and dual motor four-wheel drive models, 506km, 550km and 605km three kinds of NEDC mileage version, three versions corresponding to the standard version of domestic model3 and long-term version, BYD due to carrying lithium iron phosphate battery, the price advantage, in the case of long-range is not dominant, the price may be able to pull back a city.

At a news conference held by the Shanghai municipal government on April 23, the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission said it had formulated a number of policies to promote auto consumption in Shanghai focusing on six aspects. Among them, in terms of new energy vehicles, consumers who buy new energy vehicles are given "charging subsidies" (5000 yuan for charging expenses incurred in the process of consumers using new energy vehicles); expand the application scale of new energy vehicles; improve the charging (replacement) infrastructure. This has some advantages over cars of the same class, both in terms of policy and geographically, for Tesla, which has a factory in Shanghai.

On April 23, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Circular on improving the Financial subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the Circular). The notice shows that the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be extended to the end of 2022. In principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be 10%, 20% and 30% lower than that of the previous year, respectively. The notice also stipulates that "the price of new energy passenger vehicles must be less than 300000 yuan (including 300000 yuan) before the subsidy," and specifically proposed that "in order to encourage the development of a new 'power change' business model and speed up the promotion of new energy vehicles, 'power change mode' vehicles are not subject to this requirement.

As soon as this threshold is announced, Tesla Model3 Standard Edition or long-term version, which exceeds 300000 yuan before the subsidy, may not be able to enjoy the subsidy policy.

In this regard, he Xiaopeng believes that Tesla has a gross profit margin of 30% in China and is fully capable of adapting to the new changes. On the contrary, it poses greater challenges to some joint ventures and high-end brands of new pure electric models.

Li Xian, founder and CEO of ideal cars, said on Weibo: "the 300000 threshold for the new policy on new energy subsidies is estimated to be designed to limit Tesla. The standard version can bring the price to 300000, more than 270000 after the subsidy." In the end, subsidies have been given to Tesla, and lower prices will hit 20-400000 domestic electric cars. "

New energy vehicles did not perform well in the first quarter of this year, but unlike other carmakers, Tesla's production and sales have shown ladder growth, and it can also be seen that Tesla still has a unique charm to attract the public in the face of the unsatisfactory domestic economy. The positioning of domestic electric vehicles is more popular, and Tesla has always been the representative of the middle and high end, coupled with its long-term brand effect, it is more attractive to consumers in domestic first-and second-tier cities. The recent new energy subsidy policy stipulates that "the price of new energy passenger cars must be less than 300000 yuan (including 300000 yuan) before the subsidy," affecting Tesla cars with high mileage, and is expected to accelerate the progress of localization of Tesla's supply chain.

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