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(under review) [SMM analysis] Shanghai and tin rose more than 3% to recover the previous decline is expected to maintain a short-term or maintain a high wide shock pattern
Apr 23,2020 20:39CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4 23: this morning the non-ferrous metals market collective recovery, most commodities staged retaliatory rebound market, overnight crude oil rebounded, the market worry atmosphere alleviated, yesterday's sharp decline in the non-ferrous plate is also in the collective blood. Among them, Shanghai and tin opened high, closing at noon, the main contract 2006 reported 127640 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.6%, to recover most of the decline since April 21.

From the basic point of view, there are still supply restrictions on domestic tin ore imports, tin ore end raw material quotation and shipment is less, smelter raw material supply is facing a tight situation. At present, Tianma, Alpha, Malaysia smelting Group, Peru Minsu, Namibia AfriTin Mining, Minsur subsidiary in Brazil Minera ç ã o Taboca and Indonesian tin miner PT Timah have announced temporary production cuts or shutdowns. Although the supply side continues to be tight, the demand side is also declining. Due to the spread of the epidemic in the global impact of the electronic industry chain, so that it is in a state of semi-stagnation, and then reduce the demand for tin.

Macroscopically, the recent sharp drop in oil prices has had a very significant impact on commodity markets such as non-ferrous precious metals. Under the impact of the epidemic and price war, the basic fact facing the oil market is that as a long period of oversupply has crushed the world's crude oil tanks, pipelines and supertankers, as the world's most important commodity, oil is rapidly losing all its value. Under the double pressure at both ends of the supply and demand, the oil market continued to panic, and the US Oil 05 contract fell to a record low of-$40.32 per barrel on April 20. As of the 23rd, with the expected further reduction in OPEC production, and the EIA data was positive, the oil price rebounded. The main 06 contract closed at 13:20 on the 23rd at $15.85 / ton, but it has not yet recovered the land lost since the 21st.

SMM believes that the recent tin market supply and demand weak pattern has not changed significantly, Shanghai tin prices are still affected by the epidemic and the macro situation at home and abroad fluctuated violently, today the main tin plate in Shanghai because of the overnight rise in crude oil prices and the previous sharp drop in the correction. The tin plate in Shanghai period may continue to maintain a high and wide shock pattern in the short term. It is expected that the resistance above the tin in Shanghai period is near the integer gate of 130000 yuan / ton, and the lower support is about 120000-122000 yuan / ton.

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