SMM4, March 21: affected by the negative value of crude oil for the first time in its history, non-ferrous metals generally fell, while Shanghai zinc broke the position and accelerated its decline to a minimum of 15535 yuan / ton. As of today, it closed at 15635 yuan / ton, down 2.86 percent. SMM believes that the short-term zinc price above the 60-day line resistance, Wanliu above the mine and smelter have to keep the value of the market, to suppress the price of zinc ingots. However, recent consumption is still at a high level, zinc prices fell, downstream procurement efforts have been strengthened, is expected to go to the warehouse this week is better, for zinc prices to support.
In terms of fundamentals, according to SMM research, as of April 17, domestic zinc concentrate TC was 5400 yuan / metal ton, down 200 yuan / metal ton compared with the same week on April 10. Since March 13, domestic zinc concentrate TC has fallen one after another, and the mine end has gradually resumed production. In May, some smelters will carry out maintenance, and the supply of goods in circulation in the market will decline.
On the inventory side, domestic zinc ingot stocks have continued to decline since March 16. As of Monday, SMM's total zinc ingot inventory was 265600 tons, down 18000 tons from last Monday. Due to better galvanized consumption and relatively tight supply, it is expected to continue to go to the warehouse this week.
As far as the consumer side is concerned, the galvanized plate supports zinc consumption. The state plans to issue 1 trillion special local government debt in advance, which will help boost market sentiment, but we still need to pay attention to the essence of terminal infrastructure for zinc consumption. At present, the operating rate of large-scale galvanized enterprises remains high, the downstream enterprises start well and the state strongly supports the development of new infrastructure, driving the consumption of terminal towers to a good development. Die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide plate, affected by the overseas epidemic, export orders were dragged down, orders fell, SMM believes that consumption is expected to weaken in the second quarter, follow-up attention to the signal given by the two meetings.
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