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[SMM Analysis] the pressure on the supply side is greater & consumption is low and lead in Shanghai is in the doldrums.
Apr 20,2020 14:50CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4 20: although China cut interest rates again, but as the [SMM Weekly selected] prompt: "this time the domestic announcement of the LPR benchmark interest rate is highly likely to lower, but is expected to boost the market is limited." In terms of fundamentals, the supply of recycled lead and primary lead has increased, bringing incremental pressure on the supply side. Recently, the removal of domestic social inventory has slowed down, consumer orders outside Shanghai have begun to gradually reflect, and domestic expectations are weakening on the same month-to-month ratio. If you look at lead in a short variety, it is recommended to go short on the high side. " 。 Today, Shanghai lead has not been affected by the macro mood, and is still weak. Today, the Shanghai lead 2006 contract opened low and walked low, with an intraday low of 13555 yuan / tonne, closing at RMB / tonne as of 15:00 today, a decrease of%.

Specifically, the supply side, recycled lead, the overall profit of recycled lead is still good, according to SMM research, as of April 17, the production profit of recycled lead enterprises is 181 yuan / ton, it is expected that the supply of recycled lead will increase one after another. In the aspect of primary lead, although some smelters carry out maintenance, but the amount of influence is limited and close to May 1, the primary lead smelter will continue to produce and the pressure on the supply side is still large.

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Inventory, according to SMM research, as of April 17, SMM five lead ingot inventory to 10, 000 tons, compared with last week's change in the number of units, basically flat. Due to the lack of bright-eyed consumption of downstream lead batteries and the continued contribution of recycled lead to production, social inventories are expected to increase slightly this week.

On the consumer side, lead battery market consumption is not expected to improve for the time being, storage enterprises in order to avoid increasing inventory, more sales to fix production, in addition to the finished battery promotion superimposed May Day downstream storage enterprises or holidays, the market does not hold optimistic expectations for future consumption. As a result of the impact of the overseas epidemic, the automobile industry has been hit hard, resulting in a hindrance to the consumption of orders outside Shanghai. Overall, SMM believes that short-term Shanghai lead to interval shocks, continue to pay attention to inventory changes.

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