SMM4 Zinc Morning meeting on March 20: us Economic stimulus Agreement to reach China's GDP decline of 6.8% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year
Zinc Morning: macroscopically: the World large Enterprise Research Association said a measure of future economic activity in the United States fell a record in March-the leading economic indicator, (LEI), fell 6.7 per cent last month, the biggest drop in the index's 60-year history, suggesting that the US economy may struggle to emerge from a deep recession triggered by the new crown virus epidemic. The February data were revised downwards to show that the index was down 0.2 per cent instead of the 0.1 per cent rise previously reported. The Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP fell 6.8 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, with information transmission, software and information technology services up 13.2 per cent, the financial sector up 6 per cent and accommodation and catering down 35.3 per cent from a year earlier. The added value of industries above scale decreased by 1.1% in March compared with the same period last year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 15.8% in March compared with the same period last year, which was 4.7 percentage points lower than that from January to February. [bearish] China's investment in real estate development fell by 7.7% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, which was 8.6 percentage points lower than that from January to February. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 26.3%, the sales of commercial housing fell by 24.7%, and the funds of real estate development enterprises dropped by 13.8%. In March, the prosperity index of real estate development was 98.18, an increase of 0.78 points over the previous month. According to the data of the passenger Association, the retail market of narrow passenger cars in the first quarter of 2020 was 3.01 million, down 41% from the same period last year, a record low in the same period in recent years. Retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to be 1.39 million in April, down about 8 per cent from a year earlier. [bearish] fundamentals: last Friday spot review: traders actively shipment downstream transaction weakening Shanghai: zinc smelter shipment is normal, near the weekend traders shipment intention thicker, early market domestic offer 110 yuan / ton market feedback is slightly light, the average net price transaction is still OK. The market feedback of 110 yuan / ton in the morning market is slightly light, and the average price of the smelter is normal, and the market feedback of 110 yuan / ton in the morning market is slightly lighter than that of the average price. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation is slightly lower than the first period, reporting a rise of 100-110 yuan / ton, low prices drive some of the transactions, coupled with downstream into the market for weekend procurement, but the absolute price of high enterprises to buy goods is not high, the overall transaction within the day is generally flat compared with yesterday. Ningbo: today, there are fewer market reporters, the market supply circulation is slightly tighter, the spot market quotation is more concentrated in the first time in the morning, Xikuang, Huize and so on reported in the May contract rose 140 yuan / ton near, in addition, Tiefeng quoted in the May contract rose 130-140 yuan / ton, transactions concentrated in the lower water. Zinc prices rose again today, raising the willingness to wait and see downstream, subject to the drag of foreign demand on orders from alloy enterprises, as well as some enterprises previously overdrawn orders in April, the overall price rebounded, downstream buying is very weak. Transactions in the spot market today are once again worse than yesterday. Guangdong: the first trading period, today's price increases, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the early quotation of individual cardholders is lower, the source of low prices was soon wiped out, the market began to offer goods, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted on the Shanghai zinc June contract discount 10-30 yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the circulation of goods in the market has increased, but the holders have offered more goods at a higher price, and a small number of sources have been quoted at a lower price, while the downstream has just needed to purchase, and the market has been trading in general. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted for June contract discount 10 to 10 yuan / ton.
Tianjin: today, Shanghai zinc rushes high again, the spot market maintains the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 05 contract bid up 220 yuan / ton, the red newspaper reported in the 05 contract rose 250 yuan / ton, Chi Hong reported in the 05 contract rose 210 yuan / ton, the high price brand Zijin reported 330 yuan / ton to the May contract. Today, zinc prices broke through the Wanliu barrier, among which Chihong and lark due to the small market volume, supply is not sustainable, resulting in lower quotations from traders, Zijin strong willingness to raise prices; downstream, prices continue to rise, downstream procurement according to orders, the overall mood of receiving goods is weaker than yesterday. On the whole, transactions today are slightly weaker than yesterday.
Inventory: as of April 17, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Seven places was 272200 tons, down 13600 tons from April 10. This week, the reduction of storage is mainly concentrated in Shanghai and Guangdong, and the willingness to buy in the lower reaches of Shanghai this week is strong, mainly concentrated in the galvanized pipe and other galvanized structural parts industry, driving the outflow of storage higher. In addition, due to the small amount of storage in Guangdong, on the one hand, the proportion of smelter direct hair downstream increases, on the other hand, because an alloy enterprise in Hunan buys more zinc ingots from Guangdong, the overall storage volume decreases. Tianjin area downstream just need to buy, galvanized plate order improved to drive to the warehouse.
Bonded area inventory: as of April 17, Shanghai bonded area zinc ingot inventory 76400 tons, an increase of 1800 tons from last week. It is understood that the import of zinc ingots to Hong Kong increased this week, imports into the domestic volume is relatively limited, the offset between imports and exports recorded a small increase, follow-up attention to other countries affected by the epidemic port operation of imported zinc ingots shipping risks.
Zinc price: last Friday, Lun Zinc recorded a small positive line, the bottom 5 line into support, break through the upper resistance 40 day line, or test the upper Brin Road on the track. Lme inventories fell 850t, or 0.86 per cent, to 98300 tonnes on Friday, while LME inventories remain high; overseas car companies will resume production one after another, which will boost zinc consumption in the short term, but the impact of the epidemic will continue, superimposed overseas consumption has not yet recovered, zinc consumption increment may be limited. It is expected that the space above the short-term lun zinc is limited. On the domestic side, last Friday, Shanghai Zinc Station on the Wanliu pass, intraday impact of 16200 yuan / ton line, but due to mines and smelters for disk hedging, the upper suppression is stronger. Today is expected: Lun zinc price is expected to operate in the range of US $1910-1960 / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract or run in the vicinity of 15700-16200 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc fell 40 yuan per ton.