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[SMM Analysis] Deposit drives Zinc Price up, but overseas consumption collapse suppresses rebound height
Apr 17,2020 11:54CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4, 17 Jun: affected by Trump's announcement of a restart of the US plan and the formulation of a package of infrastructure measures, which could reach US $2 trillion and other macro events, the mood in the market has improved, and Shanghai zinc has broken through the Wanliu barrier. The Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 16075 yuan / ton, a high of 16195 yuan / ton, and closed at 16065 yuan / ton by noon today, up 0.88%.

From the fundamental point of view, on the supply side, at present, the inventory level of the smelter is low, and the tight raw materials are still the main problem for the refinery, but at present, the profit of the processing fee can alleviate the raw material problem, and the imported ore can still flow in continuously, and the possibility of a large area reduction and shutdown of the smelter in the future is not great. Some domestic smelters may advance the maintenance to May-June, overall, the short-term supply side is still under pressure.

In terms of inventory, zinc ingot inventory has shown a downward trend since March 16. According to SMM research, as of Monday, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Seven places was 286600 tons, down 2200 tons from Friday (April 10) and 10800 tons from Tuesday (April 7).

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SMM believes that due to the reduction of production in overseas mines due to the epidemic situation and the overhaul of domestic smelters in advance, the supply side is disturbed greatly, and the consumer end is affected by the rush after the resumption of terminal infrastructure projects. At present, the consumption ring in the galvanizing industry is better. In the near future, zinc ingots continue to go to the warehouse and drive prices up. Medium-and long-term prices, taking into account the collapse of overseas car consumption, with the completion of domestic pre-orders, follow-up orders are worrying, May to June galvanized sheet, die casting, zinc oxide will appear varying degrees of consumption collapse, and overseas supply problems look at the inflection point of the epidemic, as long as the inflection point appears, the mining end will recover rapidly, the overall zinc supply and demand will remain surplus, the rebound high level can be appropriately short, the high level can be seen at 16600 yuan / ton pressure level.

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