SMM4 March 17 Zinc Morning meeting: the United States may gradually lift economic activity restrictions on initial claims for unemployment benefits for four weeks more than 22 million
Zinc Morning meeting: macro: Trump has released guidance on phasing out restrictions on economic activity, under which states and companies can withdraw most of the epidemic prevention and control measures to maintain social distance within four weeks. Trump expects the new crown death toll to be even lower than optimistic forecasts, casting a shadow over plans to unseal the new crown virus, which continues to wreak havoc in Europe. New cases have risen in Spain, Italy, France and Germany, and Britain says it will extend the blockade for at least three weeks. Real-time statistics from Hopkins University show that so far, more than 2.1 million cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed worldwide. The number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week was 5.25 million, with a total of more than 22 million in the past four weeks. Last week, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to the lowest since Trump took office, and the start of new houses in March was the biggest month-on-month decline since 1984. OPEC predicts that market demand for its crude oil will fall to its lowest level in 30 years, less than 20 million barrels a day. Even if it fulfills its promise to reduce production, OPEC will still produce about 3.7 million barrels more than demand. [bearish] today, China's first quarter GDP, industrial value added, retail sales and other blockbuster data will be released, GDP is expected to decline 6%, the worst performance since the 1970s; [bearish trade] today will release China's first quarter GDP, industrial value added, retail sales and other blockbuster data, GDP is expected to decline 6%, the worst performance since the 1970s; From January to March, industrial value added is expected to fall by 10%, retail sales of consumer goods by 12.5%, and investment in fixed assets by 15%. [bearish] fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: traders actively shipping downstream transactions weakened Shanghai: in the first period of the morning, the trade market is dominated by long orders, spot rising water remains strong, the mainstream transaction in the market is concentrated in the average price of SMM net, the mainstream quotation price of 2005 contract rose by 110 yuan / ton; Enter the second period, traders high water shipment, but the spot water is still relatively stable, the mainstream of the holder reported to the 2005 contract rose by 110 yuan / ton; zinc price trend formed a unilateral market, the holder of high prices actively shipped, downstream today on-demand procurement, but the procurement is more cautious. Ningbo: the market quotation rose slightly today. In the first period of the morning, the market quotation was concentrated around 150 yuan / ton for the May contract. Tiefeng, Huize and Hualian reported near 150 yuan / ton for the rising water. Kirin reported 130-140 yuan / ton for the May contract, and the West Mining News raised 140 yuan / ton for the May contract. On the whole, the willingness to buy downstream decreased gradually, mainly due to the obvious difference in terminal orders. Light external demand dragged down market demand, alloy enterprise orders weakened significantly, on the whole, the downstream market transaction situation was basically flat yesterday. Guangdong: the first trading period, the price shock upward, once broke 16000 yuan / ton gate, downstream fear high wait and see, the market price floats has the transaction, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quotes to the Shanghai period zinc June contract discount 10-30 yuan / ton. The second trading period, the price is high shock, downstream procurement is still general, traders look for large discount source of goods, some traders futures unit price is higher, appropriate discount price delivery, but the source of big discount goods is less. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng offer the June contract discount of 20-30 yuan / ton or so. Tianjin: today's Shanghai zinc high shock, the spot market up the discount quotation, the quotation is more divided, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 05 contract bid up 250 yuan / ton, the red newspaper reported in the 05 contract rose 270 yuan / ton, Chi Hong reported in the 05 contract rose 210 yuan / ton, the high price brand Zijin reported 330 yuan / ton to the May contract. Today, zinc prices fluctuate, traders quote some differentiation, among them Chihong and lark due to the small market volume, supply is not sustainable, resulting in traders quote lower, and red Ye and Zijin again raised the price; downstream, prices continue to rise, downstream to maintain just need to purchase, according to orders to purchase, did not hoard in advance. On the whole, transactions today are slightly weaker than yesterday. Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded a long shadow line small positive line, the bottom 5 line to support, the upper resistance 40 day line. Overnight lme inventories fell 600 tonnes, or 0.6 per cent, to 99150 tonnes, while LME inventories remained high in Europe and the US, adding to the high number of US jobless claims last week, suggesting that the impact of the overseas epidemic is still strong and demand is weak. The US's 2tn infrastructure plan may not boost zinc consumption until the second half of the year. It is expected that the space above the short-term lun zinc is limited. On the domestic side, after the recovery of consumption, the social bank has entered the stage of going to the warehouse, but the resistance at the top of the Wanliu pass is stronger, and some smelters will carry out hedging above the Wanliu, paying attention to whether it can effectively stand on the Wanliu platform in the short term. Today is expected: Lun zinc price is expected to operate in the range of US $1910-1960 / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract or run in the vicinity of 15600-16100 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose 230 yuan / ton.