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[April 17 SMM lead internal morning meeting record] Primary lead supply shortage downstream on demand careful mining
Apr 17,2020 09:48CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that real-time statistics from Hopkins University show that so far, more than 2.1 million cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed worldwide.

The president of the United States has issued guidance on the gradual lifting of restrictions on economic activity, under which states and businesses can withdraw most of the epidemic prevention and control measures that maintain social distance within four weeks, and the president expects the new crown death toll to be even lower than optimistic forecasts.

The new crown virus continues to wreak havoc in Europe, casting a shadow over plans to unseal, with new cases rising in Spain, Italy, France and Germany. Britain says it will extend the blockade for at least three weeks.

Overnight US economic data: the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week was 5.25 million, compared with more than 22 million in the past four weeks. Last week, the Bloomberg Consumer comfort Index fell to its lowest level since Trump took office. New housing starts in March were the biggest month-on-month decline since 1984.

Due to the increasingly tense situation of the epidemic situation of Xin Guan pneumonia in Japan, after 08:25 local time on the 16th, the Japanese cabinet government held a meeting to discuss and make decisions on the response to the epidemic situation of Xin Guan pneumonia in Japan. Subsequently, the Japanese Prime Minister announced that social life and economy could be greatly affected as a result of major threats to the lives and health of the people. The "Emergency Declaration" issued on the basis of the new Crown Special measures Act was extended from seven metropolitan prefectures, including Tokyo, to the whole of Japan, and the period of application lasted until May 6.

OPEC expects demand for its crude oil to fall to a 30-year low of less than 20 million barrels a day, and even if it fulfills its promise to cut production, OPEC will still produce about 3.7 million barrels a day more than demand.

Today, China's first quarter GDP, industrial value added, retail sales and other blockbuster data will be released. GDP is expected to decline by 6%, the worst performance since the 1970s. From January to March, industrial value added is expected to decline by 10%, retail sales of consumer goods by 12.5%, and fixed asset investment by 15%. [bearish]

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead maintained the consolidation situation, the holder quoted price, the quotation rising water is little changed compared with yesterday, but mostly for the extremely bulk source (5-10 tons), among them, the Shanghai market Jinsha, Shuikoushan lead to Shanghai lead 2005 contract to raise water 400-430 yuan / ton quotation, southern lead to Shanghai period lead 2005 contract to raise water 430450 yuan / ton quotation, the primary lead smelter mainly to deliver the long bill; In the aspect of recycled lead, the quotation of waste battery is difficult to keep up with the falling price of lead, the source of high price purchase is OK, the circulation of reduced lead market is tight, the purchase of downstream storage enterprises is cautious, and the ex-factory price of recycled refined lead is difficult to close; the downstream purchase is only on demand, and the purchase is still biased towards recycled lead, and the spot market is light.

Lead price:

Lun lead continues the concussion trend, the trading is light, the daily line level is in the concussion market, the cycle and the monthly line Lun lead is still in the downlink channel; according to the previous notice, there will be no night trading since February 3;

SMM1# lead prices are expected to rise by 100-150 yuan per ton today.

Lead; lead brief review
price forecast
output

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