The total national stock of threads this week was 16.1033 million tons,-7.6% month-on-month, an increase of 80.1% over the same period of last year's Gregorian calendar. Total inventory growth converged for the first time, 1.8 percentage points less than last week, confirming that the return of demand has exceeded the increase in supply, and the building materials market has gradually entered the peak season.

Table 1: thread inventory

Source: SMM

Table 2: comparison of thread inventory prices from 2018 to 2020

Note: due to the epidemic since 2020, due to the different opening time of the market, there is a certain error in the actual average spot price; from this week, the time dimension has been adjusted to the date of the Gregorian calendar.

Source: SMM

Specifically:

The inventory in the plant is 4.8416 million tons, down 549900 tons from the previous month, and-10.2 percent from the previous month. Year on year + 144.5%

While steel mills continue to import resources into the market, terminal demand has also recovered steadily, leading to a marked decline in factory warehouses this week, with year-on-year growth also falling for the first time. In particular, the northern steel factory warehouse decline is significant-according to SMM, the recent North China, such as Shanxi steel mills forced by the heavy pressure of inventory, actively shipped, and informed the relevant agents to speed up the pick-up speed, accelerate the transfer of the factory warehouse to the social warehouse.

Social inventory 11.2617 million tons, down 766200 tons (- 6.4 per cent) from the previous month, + 61.7 per cent from the same period last year

The decline in social inventories has continued to expand this week. Mainly due to the strong performance of futures since this week, the market sentiment has eased, and the shipping situation is also more stable. However, in the process of spot price rising with time, the terminal acceptance of high price is general, and the market low price is better, so the speed of social warehouse is not as fast as that of factory warehouse.

In the later stage, demand continued to pick up, inventory probability maintained a steady decline, spot prices or movements were strong, but subject to the current high inventory and still growing production, the upward space may be very limited. Even if there are rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan a few days ago, it is reported that only some steel mills have said that they have implemented or are already planning to reduce production, and the follow-up situation still needs to be tracked, and as far as the local steel product structure is concerned, the impact on the actual fundamentals of building materials is relatively limited, and the emotional impact is expected to be greater than the actual impact.

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