SMM4 Zinc Morning meeting on March 15: IMF predicts a severe recession in the global economy. Shanghai Zinc tries to test the Wanliu pass.
Zinc Morning: macroscopically: the (IMF) predicts that the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, and that the situation could be even worse if the virus lingers or makes a comeback. It estimates that global GDP will shrink by 3 per cent this year and that global trade in goods and services is likely to fall by 11 per cent. The crisis also "poses a very serious threat to the global financial system," Trump said. Trump said he would suspend US funding for the World Health Organization because of his dereliction of duty in the sharing of information on the new crown. [bearish] although major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have agreed to reduce oil production again from May, until then, oil production will remain open. Saudi crude oil exports have been 9.3 million barrels a day so far this month, and crude oil inventory growth will continue for at least a few more weeks as the epidemic stabilizes and Europe begins to work out plans to resume production. Austria and Denmark will open some schools and shops this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will discuss the plan with state governors on Wednesday. The European Commission has also drawn up a plan to coordinate national measures [Lido] the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council of China: three new crown vaccines have been approved for clinical trials, and the evaluation criteria should not be reduced during the evaluation process. The State Council: China will step up the transformation of old urban areas, issue local debts of a certain scale in advance, and strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Fundamentals: yesterday's spot Review: traders actively ship downstream transactions to improve
Shanghai: in the first period of the morning, the trade market is dominated by long orders, the spot rising water is relatively strong, the mainstream transaction in the market is concentrated in the average price of SMM net, and the mainstream quotation price is 90 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract. Entering the second period, the spot rising water is relatively stable, and the holder mainstream reported 90 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract, but the transaction of high rising water is less. Zinc price trend on the formation of unilateral market, the holder of high prices to actively ship, downstream on-demand procurement, the overall market trading is still good.
Ningbo: today, the market holder is more active in reporting goods, and has a strong willingness to ship goods. In the first period of the morning, the market quotation focused on the ordinary mainstream brands such as Tiefeng and Xikuang, which reported a 120 yuan / ton increase in the May contract, Kirin reported a 130 yuan / ton increase in the May contract, and the Hualian brand raised 130 yuan / ton in the May contract due to less supply. The warehouse raised 130 yuan / ton on the May contract, and the transaction was better. In the vicinity of 140-150 yuan / ton for the May contract, most of the transactions were 140 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the trading market is better today, some traders have a strong willingness to receive and deliver orders, and the actual willingness to receive goods downstream is lower. On the whole, the transaction situation in the downstream market has taken a turn for the worse.
Guangdong: the first trading period, the initial holder relatively high price, quotation on the net price down less, but the price rise, downstream demand is more weak, late quotation loose, but the transaction is still dominated by traders, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng offer Shanghai zinc May contract discount of 1020 yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the supply of goods in the market increased, and traders entered the market to find a large source of discount goods, but the willingness of the holder to give up the price was limited, and the overall price did not change much. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 10-20 yuan per ton for the May contract.
Tianjin: today, Shanghai zinc shock higher, the spot market slightly lower discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand red Ye lark reported in the 05 contract rose water 220-240 yuan / ton, the fourth ring report in the 05 contract rose 200 yuan / ton, the macro spot market almost no quotation, the high price brand Zijin to the May contract reported 260 yuan / ton near, today has a small amount of Shuangyan newspaper in the 05 contract to rise 220 yuan / ton or so. Today, due to higher futures prices, traders lower discount quotation, still maintain a high position, the main reason is still smelter shipment is not good, Chihong spot market almost no shipment, and Zijin and lark goods are not much, but today there are a small number of Shuangyan to Tianjin shipment; downstream, due to today's Tianjin market spot price rose to Wanliu above, downstream enterprises are weaker than yesterday. Overall, today's deal is weaker than yesterday's.
Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded a long shadow line small yang line, the lower Brin Road middle track into a support, the upper resistance 40 day line. Recently, due to the overseas epidemic led to consumption shutdown, lme inventory to a high level; and some European and American countries have plans to gradually restore the economy, it is expected that overseas in a semi-controlled way, flatten the infection curve, gradually liberalize the city closure restrictions, short-term or will lead to zinc consumption, but as the epidemic continues, the global economy will face a long time, a large contraction, in the long run, zinc consumption is still pessimistic. It is expected that the space above Lun Zinc is limited. On the domestic side, at present, downstream enterprises have fully completed the resumption of construction and production, and due to the phenomenon of rush after the resumption of some infrastructure projects, short-term galvanized consumption is expected to improve, however, due to export impact, die casting plate orders appear cliff decline, downstream consumption differentiation; Shanghai zinc may continue to test the upper ten thousand six resistance level, however, if zinc prices further pull up, it is expected that mining and smelter shipments will be strengthened, or will carry out disk preservation.
Today is expected: Lun zinc price is expected to operate in the range of US $1900-1950 / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract or run in the vicinity of 15500-16000 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose 40 yuan per ton.