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[4.14 minutes of Zinc Internal Morning meeting] the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide has reached 1.9 million, and zinc has resumed normal trading today.
Apr 14,2020 09:32CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4 Zinc Morning meeting on March 14: the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide has reached 1.9 million. Zinc has returned to normal trading today.


Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the latest data show that the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has reached 1.9 million. The Saudi Energy Minister said that the OPEC+ retained all options at the June meeting and that Saudi Arabia was willing to cut oil production further if necessary. Saudi Aramco cut the price of crude oil in Asia and raised the price of crude oil exported to the United States. Russia's energy minister said Russian oil executives had agreed to take aggressive measures to balance the market, with global production cuts likely to reach 15 million-20 million barrels a day in May and June. The Federal Reserve reduced the frequency of repo operations as the market stabilized and will resume overnight repo operations every morning and cancel overnight repo operations in the afternoon from May 4. The frequency of three-month repo operations will be reduced from once a week to once every two weeks. [Lido] the US conscientious Federal Budget Committee (CRFB) said that the outbreak has led to a sharp decline in the US economy and massive government bailout spending, which will nearly quadruple the US deficit in fiscal 2020, hitting a record high of $3.8 trillion, equivalent to 18.7% of US gross domestic product (GDP). The CRFB also forecasts that the deficit for fiscal year 2021 will reach $2.1 trillion, after which, as the economy recovers from the damage caused by the shutdown, the average deficit will be $1.3 trillion per fiscal year until fiscal 2025. [bearish trade figures] will be released today, which is likely to show that after the first round of the domestic epidemic, the foreign trade industry has not yet stood firm and encountered setbacks. [bearish]


Fundamentals: yesterday's spot Review: traders actively ship downstream transactions to improve


Shanghai: smelter normal shipment, the first time in the morning market traders to long single trading, domestic quoted water about 80 yuan / ton, but also quoted the average price or the average price + 5 yuan / ton, the overall market transaction is more active. In the second trading period, the market quotation rose slightly by about 10 yuan / ton, and the domestic quoted water rose by about 90 yuan / ton. In addition, a small amount of imported Spanish circulation recently, reported that the water rose by 50 yuan / ton in May, and some of the lower reaches were also procured. the intraday market is stronger, coupled with the rising water is on the high side, the downstream inquiry procurement is less, the overall trading is mainly contributed by traders.


Ningbo: the circulation of goods in Ningbo market is more abundant today, and the quotation by morning cardholders is more concentrated. In the first period of market quotation, Xikuang and Tiefeng reported an increase of 120 yuan / ton on the May contract, Hualian reported about 110 yuan / ton on the May contract, Kirin reported about 130 yuan / ton on the May contract, and the Ze News raised the water by 150 yuan / ton on the May contract. Overall, today's Ningbo market in the first trading session of the market transaction situation is better, into the second trading session, the disk to take the higher and lower reaches of the willingness to receive goods gradually weakened. Overall, trading in the market today is slightly worse than on Friday.


Guangdong: in the first trading period, the morning shippers were relatively active, and the quotation was mainly 5-10 yuan lower than the net price. Traders received the goods at lower prices, and a small number of transactions were concluded in the market. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 10-20 yuan / ton on the Shanghai zinc May contract. In the second trading period, there is a stalemate between supply and demand in the market, some traders purchase quotations are low, but the shippers are not willing to ship, the downstream just need to purchase, the demand is limited, the market trading is still general. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 10-30 yuan per ton for the May contract.

Tianjin: today, the Shanghai zinc high shock, the spot market once again up the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand red Ye lark reported in the 05 contract to rise the water 260 yuan / ton near, the fourth ring newspaper in to the 05 contract rises 250 yuan / ton, Chihong spot market has few quotes, the high price brand Zijin to the April contract rises 300 yuan / ton near. Today, traders continue to raise their discount quotations, mainly due to the poor shipments of smelters, resulting in less goods in circulation in Tianjin spot market, less or even no goods available, resulting in increased willingness of traders to offer prices. Downstream, downstream consumption in April than earlier improved, zinc prices rebounded today superimposed higher discount level, downstream willingness to take goods weaker than last Friday, the spot market as a whole trading in general. Overall, today's deal was weaker than last Friday.


Zinc price: this weekend inventory decline is mainly concentrated in Shanghai area, near the weekend downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish the warehouse, larger volume of purchases led to the warehouse; in addition, Guangdong and Tianjin areas have recorded a small accumulation of storage, Guangdong area is subject to weak downstream consumption, poor transactions; Tianjin area is mainly due to some smelters to sell, the pace of shipment has slowed down significantly. The domestic downstream consumption gradually recovers, the terminal project resumption also brings the order increment, causes the social bank to enter the storage stage, but under the influence of the overseas epidemic situation, it is expected that the future consumption reduction will be greater than the supply reduction, and the space above Lun zinc is limited.


Today is expected: Lun zinc price is expected to operate in the range of US $1880,1930 / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract or run in the vicinity of 15300-15800 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose 130 yuan per ton.

price forecast

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