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[2019.4.1 minutes of Zinc Internal Morning meeting] good news from China and the United States in response to the epidemic, the rebound in the price of zinc is relatively limited.
Apr 1,2020 09:26CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4 Zinc Morning meeting on January 1: good news from China and the United States to deal with the epidemic, the rebound of zinc prices is relatively limited.


Zinc morning meeting: macroscopically: the executive meeting of the State Council decided to issue another batch of local government special debt lines in advance, and to strengthen inclusive financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, increase the reloan rediscount amount of 1 trillion yuan for small and medium-sized banks, and further implement a targeted reduction in standards for small and medium-sized banks. In addition, in order to promote car consumption, the meeting decided to extend the policy of subsidizing the purchase of new energy vehicles and exemption from purchase tax for two years [Lido] the President of the United States called for the introduction of a $2 trillion infrastructure bill to create jobs; According to other sources, the US president will announce that some tariffs will be allowed to be extended by 90 days, but the executive order will not apply to tariffs imposed by Trump as a result of trade enforcement actions, such as tariffs on Chinese goods or global steel and aluminum; The Federal Reserve has launched an interim repo facility for foreign central banks that will allow foreign central banks to temporarily convert Treasuries into dollars, which can then be made available to institutions in their jurisdictions. The mechanism will be operational on April 6 for at least six months; overnight US economic data: consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2017 in March; More than 500000 people in retail industry took unpaid leave; in January, the house price index in 20 cities accelerated for the fifth month in a row; [bearish price index] China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 52%, expected 42.5%, and the previous value was 35.7%; the non-manufacturing PMI was 52.3%, with a previous value of 29.6%; specifically, the March PMI data reflected the five characteristics of the current economic situation: 1) the recovery of demand was weaker than production, both internal and external demand was weaker and external demand was even worse; 2) prices continue to fall, economic deflation is obvious; 3) enterprises expect to improve month-on-month, but inventory backlog; 4) small and medium-sized enterprises are improved month-on-month, but small and medium-sized enterprises are more difficult; 5) the recovery of service industry is weaker than that of manufacturing industry, and the recovery of construction industry is faster. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will speed up the construction of the 5G network, with the number of 5G base stations expected to exceed 600000 by the end of the year, realizing continuous outdoor coverage in prefecture-level cities, key coverage in county towns and townships, and indoor coverage of key scenes. [Lido]


Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: active trading markets, weak downstream transactions


Shanghai: the center of gravity of zinc in the future moves up, the smelter continues to cherish the sale, and the tax reduction in the market is expected to continue to promote better market transactions. The domestic quotation in the morning market is directly raised to 60-70 yuan / ton, and the quotation disappears quickly after the low price is closed. The domestic quotation is lifted to 7080 yuan / ton in rising water. At the same time, the monthly difference of the contract in recent months is converted to Back structure, and the monthly difference is once enlarged to 3050 yuan / ton in rising water. Some traders turned to about 110 yuan / ton in May, because the quotation was raised too quickly, and there was no real hammer in the lower tax point for the time being. The market turned to cautious quotation and raised to 80 yuan / ton. However, the market is still looking for low-priced active buyers, and the overall trading atmosphere has not cooled. On the other hand, the downstream participation in tax points is relatively limited for the time being, and the interest in purchasing and buying is restrained after the quotation is raised, and the overall transaction within the day is still dominated by traders.


Ningbo: today Ningbo market holders actively shipped, due to Shanghai spot rising water, Ningbo market quotation slightly followed. In the morning, the supply of Western Mine, Tiefeng and other brands reported an increase of about 120 yuan / ton to the April contract, a small amount of spot Kirin reported around 130 yuan / ton to the April contract, and the price for the pre-sale of Kirin was around 120 yuan / ton for the April contract. In addition, some will report a 140 yuan / ton increase in the April contract, and the Baohui newspaper will raise the water around 100-110 yuan / ton on the April contract. In the first period, there are more market inquiries, but the willingness to receive goods downstream is relatively light; after entering the second trading session, the market quotation is basically unchanged, and the transaction situation is very dull. Overall, today's market turnover is worse than yesterday.


Guangdong: the first trading period, the market quotation is more mixed, partly based on tax reduction expected quotation is higher, individual holders are trial water quotation, a small number of source quotation is on the low side, the transaction is relatively more floating quotation on the basis of network price, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize quotation to Shanghai zinc May contract discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui, Tiefeng discount 30 yuan / ton to Pingshui. In the second trading period, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream market is limited, and the market lacks the support of buying, the overall quotation is loose, but the overall trading is still half. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 10-20 yuan per ton for the May contract.

Tianjin: after the fall of zinc in Shanghai today, the spot market raised the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand Hongye lark reported in the 04 contract to rise 30 yuan / ton near, Chi Hongbao in the 04 contract reported near Pingshui, the high-priced brand Zijin reported 50 yuan / ton to the April contract. Today, traders raised their discount quotations, and due to the expectation that there will be tax cuts and fees in the future, the willingness to hoard goods today is stronger. Today, most of the transactions are received by traders, while downstream enterprises are at a high level because of the current zinc prices and rising water. Poor willingness to receive goods, only just need to purchase. On the whole, most of today's transactions are between traders, while trading for downstream enterprises is light.


Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded a big positive line, the top pressure 20 moving average, the bottom support 5-day line. In recent days, Trump has repeatedly boosted zinc prices, and overnight Trump called for a $2 trillion infrastructure investment plan, a move that has given a big boost to zinc prices, but there are still uncertainties; domestic tax reform expectations have led traders to hoard goods and push up spot sales, but downstream are less willing to pick up goods.


Today is expected: Lun zinc or range is expected to run at 1870-1920 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 2005 contract or run at 14900-15400 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose by 100 yuan per ton.

price forecast

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