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[2019.10.28 minutes of Zinc Internal Morning meeting] Russia's interest rate cut is expected to be weaker than expected.
Oct 28,2019 09:31CST
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The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM October 28 Zinc Morning meeting: Russia cut interest rates by more than expected Trader Investment is expected to weaken

 

Zinc Morning: macro: the US Treasury says the US government recorded the largest budget deficit in seven years in fiscal 2019, as the increase in tax revenue was offset by an increase in spending and debt service payments; The latest data from the China Bureau of Statistics show that the profits of industrial enterprises continued to decline in September from January to February this year, the biggest decline since January and February this year, mainly affected by the decline in industrial product prices and the slowdown in sales growth. However, analysts pointed out that judging from the quarterly decline in profits and the near zero inventory growth rate in the 123rd quarter, with the gradual strengthening of counter-cyclical policies and the easing of trade frictions between China and the United States, the external environment has improved. Industrial operation may be in the process of bottoming out; The total profits of industrial enterprises above the scale in September totaled 575.58 billion yuan, down 5.3 percent from the same period last year, and continued to expand from the 2 percent year-on-year decline in August, and the lowest year-on-year growth rate since January and February this year. The total profit in the first September was 4.59335 trillion yuan, down 2.1 percent from the same period last year, an increase from 1.7 percent in the previous August. This week, the central bank's open market has a reverse repurchase maturity of 590 billion yuan, of which 50 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan, 60 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan are due from Monday to Friday, respectively. The fourth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 28 to 31.

Fundamentals: spot review last Friday: the market atmosphere warmed slightly at the end of the month

 

Shanghai: on the last day of today's long order, the spot rising water in Shanghai stock market fell further, and some of the tentative offers in the morning were generally quoted at 1911 yuan / tonne. After few transactions in the market, the market quotation was lowered to 1911 yuan / ton, but after the transaction did not improve, it was adjusted to 90 yuan / ton again. In addition, the impact of today's bill problem is basically over, the market quotation is basically unified next month ticket quotation. Overall, trading in today's trade market is relatively light, but the price downward after the downstream enthusiasm to pick up again, Jiangsu and Zhejiang traders feedback low local inventory, or consider moving goods from Shanghai to the local downstream.

 

Guangdong: refinery shipments are normal, the market supply is slightly tightened. In the morning, the quotation of the holder is concentrated in the discount of 20 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, entering the second trading period, the quotation of the trader is concentrated in the discount of 10 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. Disk low concussion, rising water slightly improved, downstream cautious wait-and-see, weekend stock willingness is low, traders still ship more, contribution must be traded. On the whole, today's investors are contributed by traders, and the transaction atmosphere is basically flat compared with yesterday.

 

Tianjin: refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods tends to be loose. The quotation of the source of high-priced brand is concentrated in the vicinity of 100-120 yuan / ton for 11 contract, and the quotation for the source of ordinary brand is about 6090 yuan / ton for 11-liter water. Although the northern region of environmental protection production restrictions affect some of the downstream purchasing demand, but today the center of gravity of the disk is obvious, the shippers are more willing to ship, the rising water is also loose, superimposed on the northern haze dissipated high speed to return to normal, downstream bargain mining and buying contribution must be traded. On the whole, today's deal is better than yesterday's.

 

Inventory: as of October 25, the social inventory of zinc in the three places increased by 2000 tons to 138400 tons compared with October 18. The decline in social inventories on Wednesday was mainly contributed by Guangdong, with die-cast zinc alloys mainly downstream of zinc consumption in South China. Downstream orders improved this week, and superimposed zinc prices fell slightly, boosting the willingness to buy and reserve downstream. Shanghai and Tianjin inventory decline is relatively limited, this week due to lead and zinc meeting in Shanghai trade market light trading, so inventory month-on-month changes. In addition, due to the haze reasons in Hebei Province, some steel mills and galvanizing plants have limited production, and the overall procurement is relatively limited.

 

Bonded area inventory: as of October 25, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai bonded area was 82200 tons, down 1900 tons from last week, according to SMM. It is understood that since the export of some zinc ingots from the bonded area last week, the bonded zone continued to export to Southeast Asia this week.

 

Zinc price: last Friday, Lun zinc received three Lianyang, the lower averages neatly upward to give Lun zinc certain action energy, LME zinc inventory constantly refreshed new low, overseas back structure expanded to 44 US dollars / ton, also shows that Lun zinc temporary storage has a certain upward space. The operating range of zinc in Geneva is expected to be around US $24702520 / ton. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc turned negative to yang, recorded a long positive line, KDJ index upward intersection, MACD green column turned red, showing that Shanghai zinc storage must to decline energy, but the three places inventory recorded a small increase and downstream consumption is about to enter the traditional off-season to make Shanghai zinc pressure, in the short term Shanghai zinc upward and downward trend energy is weak, it is expected that Shanghai zinc is still inclined to interval shock, running at 18700-19200 yuan / ton.

 

Today is expected: Lun zinc or range is expected to run at 2420-2520 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract or run at 18700-19200 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc increased by 300 yuan / ton

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