Home / Metal News / Tin / (preview version) [SMM Analysis] the supply of tin ingots in Shanghai is down 2% today, the supply of tin ingots in Shanghai will still be tightened, and the direction of tin in Shanghai will still rise.
(preview version) [SMM Analysis] the supply of tin ingots in Shanghai is down 2% today, the supply of tin ingots in Shanghai will still be tightened, and the direction of tin in Shanghai will still rise.
Oct 21,2019 21:00CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM10 21: after rising for three days in a row, Shanghai tin fell 2% today (October 21). By the end of the day on the 21st, the main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 137980 yuan / ton, once falling to 137030 yuan / ton, spitting out an increase since the 16th.


Joint maintenance events contribute to tin prices

On October 17, Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. issued a voluntary information disclosure notice on the shutdown and maintenance of the smelting branch, saying that in order to ensure the integrity of the tin smelting equipment to ensure the continued normal production, the smelting branch of Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. will stop production and maintenance of tin smelting equipment. The overhaul is scheduled to begin on October 21, 2019 and is expected to take no more than 50 days. According to the preliminary calculation of the production department of the company, the company's shutdown and maintenance is expected to lead to a reduction of about 10% in fine tin production in 2019 compared with the original production plan. This shutdown and maintenance has a limited impact on the company's annual business plan. Stimulated by the news, tin prices continued to rise, and rose to 141790 yuan / ton on October 18, the highest level since September 12.

Lunxi overshoot Technology callback

In terms of outer disk, the center of gravity of Lunxi was generally in an upward trend last week. On Friday, the technical pullback fell sharply to US $16645 / ton, and Lunxi opened lower again after the opening of early trading in Asia today. From a fundamental point of view, according to the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global tin market supply gap from January to August 2019 is 5600 tons. Technical indicators show that the long-term rising pattern of Lunxi has not changed, and it is in the stage of technical pullback in the short term. SMM expects that while the general direction of the overall rise remains unchanged, short-term Lunxi may be in the technical correction phase, and the support below Lunxi is expected to be near the 20-day moving average of $16500 / tonne.

Maintenance incident is expected to affect the supply of 5000-6000 tons of tin ingots

Domestically, the Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract experienced a week-long rise last week, today affected by last Friday's sharp decline in the center of gravity down significantly. From the point of view of domestic fundamentals, the circulation of mineral end raw materials market has been reduced, and it is expected that the smelter output will be further reduced due to the shortage of mineral resources and joint production reduction. Yunxi recently announced that it will begin equipment maintenance for less than 50 days from October 21, 2019, which will affect its production of about 10% of its 2018 production, and SMM expects to reduce the supply of tin ingots by about 5000-6000 tons.

The direction of Xida in Shanghai period will still be dominated by uplink.

Affected by the tightening supply of tin ingots, SMM expects that the subsequent Shanghai tin direction will still be dominated by the uplink, the fall below the short-term support is located in the 20-day moving average of 137000 yuan / ton. In the spot market, the price quoted by smelters today remains relatively strong, and the actual shipment situation is not very ideal. Downstream enterprises because of the sharp decline in tin prices most maintain a wait-and-see mentality, a small number of enterprises bargain procurement. Shanghai tin spot market this morning the overall transaction atmosphere is generally weak. There is no big fluctuation in terms of discount. Today, Yunxi rose 700-800 yuan / ton in Shanghai tin 2001 contract set, 300 yuan / ton near ordinary Yunzi Pingshui, 500-900 yuan / ton in small brand discount.

2019 (Ninth) Tin Industry chain Trading Summit

In the first half of 2019, the supply at the end of the mine remained in a tight equilibrium state. Under the influence of China's overall economic situation and the factors of the Sino-US trade war, market demand has declined compared with the same period last year, the process of de-inventory in the market has been slow, and the tin city as a whole has maintained a state of weak supply and demand. On the outside side, Indonesian tin ingot exports rose 43 per cent in April from a year earlier, coupled with a sharp increase in Chinese refined tin exports from January to April. At one point, the inventory of Lunxi rose to 6305 tons, and the trend of Lunxi was under pressure. Where will tin prices go in the future? Will the continued decline in tin prices affect the enthusiasm of miners to ship goods, thus aggravating the pattern of tight supply at the end of the mine? When will downstream demand recover? Will the development of 5G become a new growth point of tin demand? The 2019 (9th) Tin Industry chain Trading Summit invites you to explore the mysteries of Tin City. "Click to sign up for this summit.

Meeting schedule

Wednesday, 6 November in the morning

Wednesday afternoon 6 November

13: 30-13: 35 opening address of the General Assembly

13: 45-14: 35 2019 Global macroeconomic situation and commodity investment opportunities

Trends and supply Forecast of Tin Market at Home and abroad from 14: 35 to 15: 10

15: 10-15: 40 tea break communication

15: 40-16: 20 2019-2020 Hot spots in China's Tin Market and Future Forecast

Risk Management of Futures hedging Business from 16: 20 to 17: 00

18: 00-20: 00 reception dinner

Thursday, November 7, morning

Analysis on the present situation and Technical Application Development trend of 09: 00-09: 40 Solder Industry

Application Progress of Tin anode Materials for Lithium Ion Battery from 09: 40 to 10: 20

Consumption and Investment Prospect of Tin in Semiconductor Industry from 10: 20 to 11: 00

New trend of Tin Terminal consumption in 11: 00-11: 40 5G era

12: 00-13: 30 buffet lunch

14: 30-16: 30 physical visit

Closing of the General Assembly

Scan the QR code below to sign up for the tin summit


tin mining
production capacity

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news